How The Next Step Of The Stock Market Will Evolve

In fact, since mid late 4, I have reminded many times in this column that the central bank's monetary policy is undergoing subtle changes and the intensity of its stimulus is decreasing.

The reason is that the state has placed a top priority in guarding against financial risks and preventing inflation risks.

Under such circumstances, asset prices will inevitably decline.

Originally, news of the weekend was warm.

The US non farm data is not ideal, which makes it almost impossible for the fed to raise interest rates by September.

Under normal circumstances, commodities will perform better today.

But the strong signals from the people's daily first brought a storm to the commodity market.

Shanghai futures exchange, Dalian commodity exchange and real estate and infrastructure related varieties have dropped sharply.

Subsequently, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets opened, and the sectors such as nonferrous metals, coal, steel and real estate fell sharply.

Investment funds began to withdraw from these sectors and drive the overall market down.

This article conveys some important information to us, which deserves our investors' attention.

1, the Central Committee's reform is very determined and will not "slow reform" because of "steady growth".

2, the judgment of the economic situation is relatively sober. It is believed that China's economic operation can not be U type, or even V type, but the trend of L type.

this

It's a phase, not one or two years.

3, we are very vigilant about the high lever of the economy, and have changed a lot in the view of the stock market and the real estate market. We emphasize that the stock market, the exchange market and the real estate market return to their respective functional orientation, respecting their respective development rules, and not simply as a means to ensure growth.

4, for the stock market, the stock market should be based on restoring market financing function, fully protecting investors' rights and interests, giving full play to the adjustment function of market mechanism, strengthening the basic system construction such as issuing, delisting, and trading, strengthening market supervision, improving the quality of information disclosure, and cracking down on insider trading and stock price manipulation.

5, for the first time, it referred to the "property bubble" problem, emphasizing that "housing is for people to live in". We should "go to stock" through the urbanization of the people instead of adding the lever to "stock".

6, the high level is highly alert to the price rebound.

Or there will be new adjustments.

7, it is proposed to abandon completely and try to accelerate economic growth through loose currency overweight.

Conclusion: This is a long-term good news both for China's economy and for the stock market, the real estate market and the foreign exchange market.

But for the short-term trend, it is empty.

If Friday's fall is driven by shell resources, today's decline is mainly driven by commodities and real estate sectors.

How will the stock market evolve next? My view is that if the market forces are to seek the bottom, the downward space is very large, and it will be very difficult to stop when the Domino dominoes are pushed down.

If the market breaks 2700 points or even 2600 points, the risk of large shareholders' equity pledge, the risk of large shareholders and senior managers' leverage increase will be exposed one after another, plus the large shareholders' cash out, the stock market will be too miserable to see.

If so, then

The inclusion of the Ming Sheng index will once again become very remote.

Therefore, the main force must be protected at 2800 points, and quickly pull up the index and leave the area.

Therefore, in the next few days, the market will gradually stabilize under the efforts of the "national team". The central bank estimates that there will be some small profits to appease the market.

However, due to the contusion of market sentiment and significant changes expected, weak market shocks will be maintained for quite some time in the future.