Cost Analysis Of Internal And External Cotton And Future Trend

The US Department of agriculture's new annual cost data have not yet come out. According to the data in 2014, the cost line of US cotton planting is near 75 cents per pound, which is converted into ICE cotton price of 65 cents / pound according to the base 10 cents / pound.

In the 2015 year of the year, the cost of production materials declined, and the cost of US cotton fell somewhat.

However, considering that the cost support effectiveness of the US cotton subsidy policy is limited, it is only for reference.

In the Xinjiang area, the total cost of cotton per mu in 2015 was 2150 yuan, the cotton yield per unit area was 0.115 tons per mu, and the national fine varieties subsidy was 15 yuan yuan per mu. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the average market price is 12500 yuan / ton this year, and the difference between the target price and the target price is 6600 yuan / ton.

The target price subsidy is about 6600 yuan / ton, the processing fee is 500 yuan / ton, the cotton linen percentage of Xinjiang is 40% this year, and the cotton seed cost is 10000 yuan / ton according to the 1800 yuan / ton calculation.

at present

The cost is basically completed. According to the average purchase cost of seed cotton 5500 yuan / ton, the lint cost is about 12500 yuan / ton.

In 2015, the cost of cotton planting in China increased.

The cost of physical and chemical production is flat or slightly down, but the drop is lower than the increase in labor costs.

On the whole, 12500 of them have cost support for the cotton market, and do not rule out the possibility of breaking through, but restrict the market to continue downhill.

Polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and other chemical fiber products have a strong substitution effect with cotton.

With the continuous decline of cotton prices in recent years, the price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber has been narrowed, and the substitution effect of polyester, short and short sticks has been weakening, and to a certain extent, the demand for cotton has been raised.

As of December 22, 2015, the market price of domestic PET staple fiber was 6450 yuan / ton, the market price of viscose staple fiber was about 13400 yuan / ton, the price difference of cotton gum decreased to -484 yuan / ton, and the price difference of cotton and polyester reduced to 6466 yuan / ton, basically to the level of 09 years at the end of 08.

The substitution advantage of polyester and viscose for cotton is conducive to the replacement of cotton substitution demand, and has a certain effect on the demand of cotton market.