Home >

The Fed'S Interest Rate Hike Is Expected To Be Depressing In Emerging Markets.

2015/12/25 16:56:00 23

FedInterest Rate IncreaseEmerging Markets

US dollar index.

DXY has risen 9% throughout the year, up nearly 13% in 2014.

More than half of this year's gains were recorded before September, and the European Central Bank is preparing to start printing banknote in September.

Another 4% increase has been recorded since September.

Federal Reserve

Since then, it has been clear that interest rates will eventually start.

In sharp contrast, oil prices are likely to fall by 35% over the whole year.

Although oil prices had fallen sharply last year, it began to fall again in May, when the market worried about the Chinese demand for resources that had been craving resources or began to fall.

The real acceleration of the oil price decline was in early October.

Crude oil prices hit a 11 year low this week as oil exporting Saudi Arabia continues to produce unrestrained production.

Although Russia has been sanctioned by the Ukraine incident and is catching up with the oil price collapse, its bonds are still up nearly 20% this year.

In the US dollar, the Hungarian stock market.

BUX rose by more than 30%.

Ukraine's bond market has risen more than 40% this year, the best performing player in the world.

Venezuela and Argentina bonds split second and three respectively, rising 40% and 20% respectively.

Shanghai A shares.

SSEC's performance is also not worrying, increasing 7.5% during the year; Nikkei index.

N225 rose 7.2%.

Shanghai shares rose 30% this year, but the stock market has dropped sharply as China's economic slowdown is expected to become an important theme this year.

In August, the government let the yuan depreciate by 3%, making the market unprepared.

S & P 500 index.

SPX is the worst year since the euro zone crisis in 2011, with a return of 2.4%, including dividends.

MSCI's global index fell 3.7%, which will end three consecutive years of rising.

Emerging markets are also performing poorly.

MSCI

Ming's main emerging market index has fallen by 16%, as global growth is sluggish, commodity prices have collapsed, the US dollar has strengthened and the political environment of some countries has been unfavourable, causing Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Malaysia to suffer deeply.

Emerging market currencies have also been hit hard.

For example, Brazil's real estate fell 33%, South African rand fell nearly 24%, Turkey lira fell 20%, and Russian rouble also dropped 14%.

Yes

China's demand

The worry is the backstage driver of the decline in emerging market currencies, especially for emerging economies that rely heavily on commodities, and not just crude oil, but also fell 26% this year, the biggest decline since the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Thomson Reuters / core commodities CRB index has fallen 24% this year, hitting a 13 year low earlier this month.

The index contains 19 commodities.

Another surprise in 2015 was that US Treasuries performed better than European bonds. Despite the European Central Bank's issuance of more than 1 trillion (Euro) bond purchases, the US Federal Reserve (/FED) decided to end its debt purchase operations and raise interest rates this month.

In Germany, the price of German 10 - year bonds and Italy bonds fell by 9.8% and 6.1% respectively.

The 10 - year treasury bond prices in the United States increased by 0.9%.

The real yield of German bonds was slightly higher at the beginning of the year, while the performance of US dollar bonds was much lower than that of the European Central Bank, which caused the euro to depreciate by 10%.


  • Related reading

The IMF Reform Program Will Have A Major Global Impact.

financial news
|
2015/12/24 20:26:00
17

The Foreign Exchange Market Is Suffering From The "Waterloo" Financial Crisis.

financial news
|
2015/12/24 15:13:00
30

Rome Family 152 Million 700 Thousand Restructured The New Controlling Shareholder

financial news
|
2015/12/23 9:49:00
70

A Share Market Ushered In Long-Term Good

financial news
|
2015/12/22 20:39:00
31

The Central Economic Work Conference Will Be Closed And Active Fiscal Policy Will Be Intensified.

financial news
|
2015/12/22 19:55:00
17
Read the next article

Long Staple Cotton Opens And Falls, And It Can'T Stop.

The yield of long staple cotton was significantly higher than that of upland cotton, and cotton growers in 2016 grew or grew continuously. Long staple cotton opened down mode, can the overall income counter attack? Next, let's take a look at the details.