2016 Footwear Industry: The Three Major Investment Directions Deserve Our Attention.

2015

Plate rising ranks the top, and the fundamentals of the plate deviate from (plate performance stabilized, pressure), mainly from the market's strong expectations for the pformation of textile service standards.

After sorting out the system of plate targets, we believe that this style and market will continue in 2016. Investors are advised to pay attention to the target of pformation to emerging industries: Maison, LAN Zi, Hua Si, and "noble bird".

Consumer downturn, market deviations

2015Q3's clothing terminal consumption basically continued the downturn in 2014 and slowed down, but it showed signs of stabilization.

In general, our previous judgement on the A share spinning and dressing sub sector is home textiles casual footwear - men's clothing - women's outdoors - the judgement is being verified.

From DuPont analysis, improvements are mainly focused on

And footwear direction.

Although the overall performance of the sector showed a weak recovery trend, but the pressure is still expected to be larger, and it is difficult to see the growth of the main business performance in the future.

By the end of December 7, 2015, the total income of the spinning and weaving board was 82.11%, and the increase was at the forefront.

We believe that the divergence between plate performance and fundamentals is due to pformation and related expectations.

Transformation and trend, focus on emerging

From the 80 companies that we have carve out of the spinning and weaving board, 8 of them have announced the announcement of diversification, fixed up / reorganization and employee stock ownership.

Moreover, in the second half of the year, the number of households increased by more than 50% in the first half of the year.

We can see that the trend of pformation is expected to intensify.

From the perspective of pformation, it is mainly concentrated in the direction of Internet + sports, culture and entertainment, health, fashion and new energy. These are also the new directions of national policy encouragement and advocacy.

From the perspective of pformation, we believe that the three major directions in the future deserve our attention.

First, the sports industry, with the liberalization of administrative control, will usher in the golden ten years of development.

Among them, the target of sports industry is mainly from the "noble bird" and "Pathfinder".

The two is the rise of the social network in the 3 era of the Internet. We think that the social e-commerce has the advantages of low cost and accurate matching of demand. It has effectively solved many pain points of traditional e-commerce. The new model based on social entertainment and the economy of fans are promising.

We should pay attention to the shares of Hua Si and LAN Zi.

The three is the coming of the era of "she" economy, especially the "beautiful" + children's consumption of women's right to speak.

We believe that medical beauty will be the next draught of the "she" economy, and the current target is scarce. Only in July, we would like to invest in South Korea's famous plastic hospital.

Children's consumption benefits from consumption promotion and two child bonus, among which Semir clothing, Maison culture and blonde Rabbi deserve attention.

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Cost down, benefit reversal.

2015

It will still benefit from narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton prices and better performance. Moreover, leading enterprises will benefit from overseas pfer of capacity and RMB devaluation to a certain extent, with strong investment certainty.

The leather making technology is constrained by the sharp rise in the price of leather products since 2013, and the consumption of downstream shoe companies and brands is not strong enough to pfer high cost pressure, resulting in a decline in performance.

However, as the price of imported cowhide began to decline in April, we believe that the performance of 2016 will benefit from low cost raw materials and achieve reverse.

Maintain the industry's "stronger than big city" rating.

Clothing terminal consumption is showing signs of stabilization, and every sub sector of textile service has been revived sequentially.

The pformation of spinning and weaving board is becoming more and more intense, and the pformation of new growth industries is in pition.

We will focus more on the promising emerging consumer services industries in the future: mutual sports, social networking, and "she" economy (beauty + baby consumption).

On the whole, with the fixed increase and blood supplement, it is expected that the M & A and pformation in 2016 will remain strong. In 2016, the style and market will continue in 2015. We still maintain the industry's "stronger than big city" rating.

Considering the fundamentals, the direction of pformation and the certainty of success, we will finally choose the following combinations: Maison, LAN Zi, Hua Si, Hui bird and Xingye technology.