Guo Shiliang Talks About The Stock Market: A 4000 Point Cut In The Sky?

After a long period of National Day holiday, the A share market has seen a trend of successive rise, and once touched to the 3300 high points.

If we pick up from the recent 3000 point, the short-term market's cumulative increase has reached 10%.

However, in view of the rally after the holiday, the height of its rebound is also highly concerned by the market.

Among them, there are relatively optimistic investors believe that the possibility of short-term market shocks 4000 points are increasing.

At the same time, some radical investors said that the A share market has once again returned to the bull market.

For the short-term market rebound, on the one hand, it is part of the foresight of the fund's bottom line behavior, and thus accelerated the trend of short-term market overhang after repair; on the other hand, the short-term market valuation risk has been largely released, and with some of the overvaluation of the stock market, the valuation advantage has gradually been recognized by the market, and has gradually led to a market rebound stage.

However, for the current market, although the impact of recent market policy promotion is gradually emerging, but the current market rebound is still dominated by stock funds, and its rebound height remains to be seen.

As for whether the market can hit the 4000 point mark in the short term, the author believes that in the current market environment, the overall difficulty is still greater.

Perhaps, in the short term, the market will gradually enhance the overall focus of operation and gradually boost market confidence in investment, which is the biggest victory.

In fact, the trend of the first trading day after the National Day also has a profound impact on the performance of the stock market in the following week and even in October.

Among them, in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2014, the A share market recorded the trend of the red market in the first trading day, and in the next month, the performance of the A share market was also impressive, and finally ended the market with the month line.

At the same time, according to statistics, if the trend of green market appeared in the first trading day in October, it often meant that the market trend in October would not be too bright.

However, throughout the past data, when the trend of green disk appeared on the first trading day in October, the probability of market overcast increased significantly.

For the current market, basically

Confidence at the crucial stage of initial repair, and market investment confidence originally needs a long repair process, and in the process of market confidence restoration, there is a pressing need for a sustained and stable market environment to give support.

It is undeniable that after the vigorous and vigorous "deleveraging" process, the A share market has already been badly hurt, and the popular foundation of hard accumulation in the pre market has long been destroyed.

In fact, for the current round of irrational decline, its lethality for the A share market is far more than that of the financial tsunami 7 years ago.

The reason is that the market capacity has expanded in a large scale, which has increased several times than the market capacity at that time.

At the same time, in the process of stock market decline, the wealth in the market has shrunk considerably.

Second, with the full activation of highly leveraged tools, the market as a whole.

The level has also risen rapidly.

Indeed, for highly leveraged tools, it not only has an impact on market growth, but also has a strong impact on the market.

This shows that when the market has a major inflection point, it will increase the impact on the market.

Today, although the process of "deleveraging" in the A share market is nearing completion, it does not mean that the A shares after "deleveraging" immediately resumed the bull market's upward momentum at that time.

Obviously, it has gone through the previous stage.

After the process, leveraged funds have greatly reduced the market's leverage, and the market's potential new liquidity influx has also weakened significantly.

As a result, for the A share market dominated by capital, it also cut off its booster.

In addition, it is worth noting that after the ups and downs of the stock market, Chinese managers have long realized the great power of China's stock market.

For this reason, from the perspective of management, it is probably the best choice to maintain market stability in a critical period and reduce the overall volatility risk of the market.