Spot Basic Weakness, Zheng Cotton Futures Weak Fall

Zheng cotton futures this week narrow adjustment, failed to continue the rally last week, the high and low prices, the downward trend of prices, the downward trend of prices, and the poor market fundamentals, which is not conducive to the rise in cotton prices. This week, the market fundamentals are mainly manifested in the following aspects: first, the macro level is not good enough; the downward pressure on China's economy is still large, the stock market has fallen, the commodity prices have been falling down, and the cotton prices have also been dragged down to a certain extent. Two, the spot price is weak, and the turnover is light. In July, 31 cotton prices in China on Friday, 13138 3128B, the cotton price index of China, fell 20 points compared with last Friday, and spot prices continued to fall slightly.

The weakness of the downstream market has restrained the demand of the textile enterprises for cotton. On the whole, the purchasing of textile enterprises has been insisting on the purchase and purchase according to the needs. There is no new news stimulus in the market, and the weak structure of the fundamentals has no support for cotton prices.

In 2015, the sale of cotton reserves came out for 256 thousand and 900 weeks and the actual sales volume was 3 thousand and 900 tons, compared with last week's sales of 3 thousand and 900 tons, a decrease of 7 thousand and 900 tons compared with last week, and the turnover rate of 1.52% tons, a decrease of 3.06% tons. The turnover of domestic cotton 3 thousand and 300 tons decreased by 6 thousand and 900 tons, the turnover of imported cotton was 600 tons, and the turnover of imported cotton decreased by 600 tons. The turnover continued to decline, indicating that the market demand was flagging. Some textile enterprises still prefer to purchase cotton spot in the market. First, they worry about the quality of reserve cotton. cotton The textile market is now in the low season. Textile enterprises Not yet received a large number of autumn orders, enterprises rely on old customers and loose maintenance. yarn The speed of the goods dropped, the price was weak, the market confidence was sluggish, the overall start-up rate decreased, the inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the product sales were in arrears, and the funds were tight. The price of domestic yarn and imported yarn continued to shrink and the market was in the off-season, which also affected the sales of imported yarn. Traders' inventory consumption was slow and sales pressure increased.

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　　ICE棉花期价收阴下跌，这是连续第五周表现为阴跌，价格跌至区间调整低位63美分附近，本周主要利空点：一是宏观面影响负面，外围市场利空，美联储加息预期升温，美元走强，中国股市周一大幅下跌8.5%，创近八年半最大单日跌幅，再现千股跌停，这也显示了中国经济成长放缓慢，道琼工业、标准普尔等欧美股指以及日经都出现较大幅的下跌，大宗商品普遍遭遇抛售，棉价也跟随回落;二是棉花供应过剩，这是压制棉价下跌的根本原因，数据显示，2014/15和2015/16全球棉花年末库存分别为1.1096亿包和1.0814亿包，库存量有增无减，中国库存增加较大，目前全球最大的棉花需求国中国储备棉库存在1000万吨以上，自7月开始的国储棉轮出成交缓慢，显示其去库存所需时间仍需要相当长的时间，对棉花的进口需求在未来年度难有增长，东南亚国家需求虽有所增长，但在中 In the case of a decrease in demand, there was also no bright spot. Three, the weekly sales data released by the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week of July 23rd, cotton exports in the US 2014/15 were sold by 23300 packages, and the main importing countries were Vietnam and Indonesia, 75% lower than the previous week, 63% lower than the previous four weeks. 7 countries have cancelled some contracts and exported 168500 packages, mainly shipped to Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia, a decrease of 3% over the previous week, a decrease of 10% compared with the previous four weeks, three of the excellent cotton longevity in the United States and an increase in cotton cultivation in India. The weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture showed that in the week July 26th, the growth rate of cotton in the United States was 57%, compared with 57% in the previous week, 54% in the same period last year, and 85% in the previous week, 76% in the previous week, 87% in the same period last year, 88% in the five year, 44% in the previous year, 33% in the previous week, 47% in the same period last year, and the average in the 47% year. The growth rate of American cotton is better than that of the same period last year, and the indicators are gradually improving. If the weather is not abnormal, the yield per unit area is expected to increase. The sowing area of India has increased significantly. According to the Ministry of agriculture of India, by July 23rd, the new sown area of India increased by 995.2 hectares (149 million mu), which was 31% higher than that of 761.33 hectares (114 million mu) in the same period last year. The India Cotton Association said that by October, the cotton stocks in India increased 25% to 7 million 390 thousand packages (170 kg per pack) than the 5 million 890 thousand packages in the same period last year, and the output will probably be close to a record 40 million pack next year. Poor macro face, high inventory carrying stock and excellent growth of new cotton continue to suppress cotton prices.