By Controlling Inventory And Operating Rate "2014"

With the collapse of upstream costs, the spot price of PTA is on the decline. Polyester factories are more cautious when purchasing PTA. In addition, from the PTA traders' shipments, we can see that the volume of raw materials on the market is adequate. Compared with previous years, the rational control of stock and operating rate by polyester factories in 2014 is a magic weapon for "boil over" difficult times.

The finished product inventory of polyester filament in chemical fiber market is at a normal level of 6 to 7 days, although it has increased slightly compared with the middle of November 2014, but it remains relatively low. The number of days in stock is closely related to the capacity of the factory itself. The production capacity of a polyester plant with a capacity of 400 thousand tons is still good, and the corresponding finished product inventory is at 50 to 60 days at a higher time, and 20 days at a lower time.

Although the stock days are relatively high, the average daily output per plant is at a normal level. And another one of the same size. production and marketing The better polyester plant, POY inventory is very low, the average stock of all products is less than 4 days. From the total inventory of polyester products, the total inventory in early 2014 reached 40 days, and by the end of 2014, the total inventory was 16.5 days, and the total stock of late polyester would not exceed 30 days. From the 2014 polyester stock removal situation can also be estimated in 2014 polyester demand overall is improving.

In terms of raw materials, these polyester factories we have studied have fixed cooperation. PTA Factories account for relatively large contracts. Only when the contract goods are insufficient, will these polyester factories be purchased from stock, and the spot enterprises dealing with them will be relatively fixed. During the survey period, the average PTA inventory of polyester factories was 12 to 13 days.

For polyester industry, most factories have certain expectations for the reduction of PTA plants in November. They are optimistic about the polyester Market in December. Therefore, they purchase more raw materials for December, so that raw materials can be stored for 7 to 10 days, and a few even up to 10 days. This leads to higher raw material stocks in polyester factories in early December. After that, the factory realized that it was expected to fail in December. The impact of the above factors on the PTA plant is that in December, even if the PTA plant is cut down, its inventory will not drop too quickly, and PTA will be transferred from the polyester plant to the PTA plant.

The MEG stocks we visited in polyester factories were relatively low, ranging from 15 to 20 days. There are 10 to 15 days for PX factories in polyester factories with PTA matching devices, and all of them are contracted goods.

　　 Polyester factory It is considered that the average operating rate in 2015 will not exceed 80%. Near the Spring Festival, the load of polyester plant will gradually decline, and there will be a time sale promotion after the Spring Festival. This is also a good opportunity to effectively remove the inventory, so the probability of pressure on the polyester plant will be narrowed. Starting from the end of November 2014, the starting rate of terminal weaving began to decline at a rate of 2% per day, until the half month before the Spring Festival, the operating rate will drop below 50%.

We also note that every industry will experience industrial adjustment at the same time of capacity expansion. After nearly three years of downturn, the polyester industry finally met new opportunities and challenges at the end of 2014. With the improvement of efficiency and the dawn of dawn, besides seasonal factors, it also benefits from the collapse of upstream costs and the release of terminal demand. By visiting different types of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, we can see the improvement of efficiency and the warmer demand.