Ye Tan: The Central Bank's Interest Rate Cut Is A Rainy Day For Us To Raise Interest Rates.

The central bank's interest rate cut is the beginning of interest rate liberalization. In 2013, there was a road map of interest rate marketization, the 5 year deposit benchmark interest rate was abolished, the large deposit certificate trading market was cultivated, the bond yield curve was established, and finally the interest rate liberalization was realized. From the aspect of private banks, it is to establish a deposit insurance system and gradually release private banks.

The central bank adopted an asymmetric way to cut interest rates, abolished the 5 year deposit benchmark interest rate, and relaxed the deposit interest rate to 1.2 times. This move came to an instant, and the bank account interest rate of funds was relatively low, while some local banks were floating up in place to compete for deposits.

Deposit interest rates are generally down, and financial disintermediation continues, and bank deposits will continue to decline. RMB deposits in financial institutions decreased by 186 billion 600 million yuan in October, and new deposits are showing signs of fatigue this year. From 1 to October this year, the monthly average new RMB deposit was about 800 billion yuan, lower than the 1 trillion yuan in 2013 and the monthly average level of nearly 900 billion yuan in 2012.

Internet finance, bond repurchase, and new shares have all taken up a huge amount of money. Only P2P one, according to data from the home loan home of P2P net loan, it is estimated that net loan volume will be 240 billion yuan this year, two times more than last year, and the loan balance is expected to reach 90 billion yuan. By the end of the 1 quarter of 2014, the scale of China's monetary fund market exceeded 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan.

The decline in lending rates is sure to be a great help for large enterprises. Some enterprises that take up walls and make up for the west can take a little breath from the pressure of interest, and Replace Cheap old loans with cheap new loans. Medium and long term loans in Wenzhou and other places, as well as the overdue loans of the "tie Gong Ji" medium and long term loans in some places, indicate that the decline in loan interest rates is very important to ease these financing noose.

In addition, according to Xu Jin, the 360 website of the fusion company, the buyer's loan is 1 million yuan, with a term of 30 years. After the interest rate is cut down, the amount of the principal and interest is equal to 263 yuan a month. According to the equal principal amount, it is less than 300 yuan a month, saving the whole family's telephone fee. The total can be saved by 60 thousand yuan and 90 thousand yuan respectively, saving the price of a family car and the rigid demand for price sensitive buyers. The interest rate reduction is timely and timely, which will help stabilize the real estate market.

Falling interest rates do not solve SMEs. financing No matter what the interest rate is, the traditional large and medium-sized banks do not have a complete solution to the credit control of SMEs. They can only rely on the supply chain finance of electronic commerce and the local small and micro banks.

Small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulty in financing and financing, but the key projects of large enterprises can not only get bank loans, but also have channels for listing financing and bonds. The scale of bond trading increased significantly compared with the same period last year. In the first half of 2014, non-financial enterprises had strong demand for financing through the bond market. Interbank The bond market issued a total of 2 trillion and 520 billion yuan credit bonds, an increase of 36.5% compared to the same period, the stock size of 7 trillion and 890 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year. Corporate bonds net financing 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 86 billion 100 million yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the scale of social financing, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of this year, the interbank RMB market totaled 213 trillion and 220 billion yuan in the form of borrowing, bond and bond repurchase, with an average daily turnover of 1 trillion and 130 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 16.9%. Funds should not be transferred to inefficient large enterprises and projects.

This Rate cut It is beneficial to the marketization of interest rate, which helps to reduce the cost of the debtor, but does not help reduce the overall transaction cost, and does not help establish the financial chain of innovators. This is the task of entity reform and has little to do with bank interest rates.

Besides the US, the major central banks of the world are relaxed. On November 21st, Delagi, the governor of the European Central Bank, said that the European Central Bank would take necessary measures to resist the current low inflation situation in the euro area, including expanding the scale and frequency of current bond purchases.

The interest rate cut by the Chinese central bank can be seen as a precaution against the US interest rate hike. Otherwise, China's interest rate has been very high. The US central bank can only stare at a slight increase in interest rates and capital flow.