At The Beginning Of The New Year, The State Is Not Likely To Sell Cotton Reserves.

According to the relevant regulations of the state, the sale of reserve cotton will be suspended in August 31, 2014. In view of the general expectation that the new cotton market will be postponed, the purchase channel and inventory level of textile enterprises will become the focus of attention in 9-10 months. At the same time, there is also speculation and expectation about whether the company will postpone the dumping or when the market supply is broken.

Judging from the signs of the current market, I believe that at least 2014 countries will not sell cotton reserves at the beginning of the year, mainly based on the following considerations.

　　 first The demand for textile enterprises is still not strong. The overall turnover rate since the beginning of the sale of reserve cotton is evident. It only experienced a short recovery after the bottom price was lowered in early April. According to the latest statistics, as of August 20th, the average turnover rate of reserve cotton in 2013 was 21.4%, down 14.59% from 35.99% in 2012.

Second, although part of the cotton growing season has been delayed this year, some regions and enterprises have begun picking and buying seed cotton at a price of 3.3-3.5 yuan / Jin. When most enterprises are confused and do not move, there is an early lead in the acquisition of new cotton, which is a positive phenomenon for the whole market in the future. It is also a country's willingness to see, so it will no longer put pressure on the market.

Third, Spin According to the production situation, enterprises will stock appropriately, and there are other purchasing channels. At the beginning of August, the state had released the end of the dumping and storage, and invited the enterprises to take an active part in the sales and marketing signals according to their own conditions. Although the demand for shortage, the limited funds and the expected late market prices would drop sharply, there was no obvious volume in the storage of cotton reserves. However, the overall turnover rate was higher than that in July when the amount of investment was basically unchanged. According to the latest statistics, as of 20 August, the average turnover rate of storage cotton was 15.59%, which was slightly higher than the average turnover rate of 12.37% in July by 3 percentage points. Some other international cotton traders reflect that, because buyers in China, including buyers in China, expect lower cotton prices in the international market in 2014, at present, the tariff rate and tariff rate of the textile enterprises are 1%. cotton The use of import quotas (general trade) is low. According to China Customs data, cotton imports in China fell 19.11% in June compared with 16.8% in July. Together with the cotton import quotas allocated for throwing and storing, it can be seen that most of the textile enterprises now have a certain number of import quotas in hand to prepare for rainy days.

Fourth, let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and the target price subsidy policy has been decided, and the state will not intervene in the market any more. If the acquisition market really presents a stalemate, even if the country is ready to sell, it is also necessary to find ways to make the market move and solve the problem of selling cotton rather than solving the so-called "cotton difficult". Moreover, the implementation of the target price policy will bring a lot of financial expenditure. How can the state use the spear to stamp the shield of subsidies?

Since the introduction of the target price subsidy policy, the market is confused, chaotic and panic. It is no wonder that no matter whether the cotton enterprises or the textile enterprises have been adapted to the "clothing to stretch out their hands and open their mouth" in recent years, they will return to the market without any sense of direction. At the moment, the subsidy rules are ready to come out. In the future, the purchase price, purchase progress and market price trend of the new cotton market will have a greater impact in the future. This is precisely why enterprises believe that the market risk will increase in the future.

Whenever possible, risks are everywhere in the market operation, even if everyone enjoys the "policy market". In fact, the risk is not terrible, terrible is that the risk is not controllable. Today, if the market plays a leading role, as long as the enterprises have a clear understanding of the fundamentals and technical aspects, and at the same time strengthen their own construction, actively upgrade the equipment, and constantly adjust their product structure to adapt to the market changes, the most important thing is to set up the risk control points, and the enterprises will certainly be able to work well in the market operation.