Yi Xianrong: If The Chinese Are Influenced By The Conspiracy Theory Of Exchange Rate

Recently, the US dollar exchange rate has been rising for 14 weeks, the longest rise cycle since World War II, and the US dollar exchange rate index has reached 86 level, rising by more than 7%, the highest since 2010.

Earlier, Russia proposed to "dollarization", resulting in the loss of trousers.

The strength of the US dollar not only made Russia's ruble devalue rapidly, but also stimulated the Russian enterprises and people to have more power to hold the US dollar rather than the ruble.

Recently, even if Russian companies could not hold dollars, they would turn to the US dollar substitutes.

If the Chinese were also influenced by the theory of exchange rate conspiracy earlier, as the Russian government said, "de dollarization" would also be a terrible loss.

In fact, for the US dollar, the strength or weakness of the US dollar is not too important. This is a very ordinary thing, and lies in what kind of monetary policy the Federal Reserve adopts.

The most important thing is that only the US dollar can be regarded as a real international currency (at least for now).

Why is it true that only the US dollar is the real international currency? We should neither use the "currency conspiracy theory" to explain it, let alone the "dollar hegemony theory", which will obscure the Chinese people's understanding of the true nature of the dollar.

Only by starting from the nature of the modern credit currency and the market rules can we see the true face of the dollar.

The essence and true face of the dollar are clear. For the exchange rate of the US dollar, the Chinese can find a good way to deal with it.

It can be said that as the international currency, the US dollar not only lies in its national strength, political system and social credit culture, but also because it is established in the process of market evolution, rather than the US government needs to use guns to point to other countries or others to hold or hold us dollars.

Since the international character of the dollar comes from the market rules, we must use market rules to think.

Because of the fact that the US dollar has no other attributes of these other currencies, in the international market, the US dollar can be either local currency or foreign currency. The US monetary policy is not only the monetary policy of our country, but also the global monetary policy.

The flexible change and adjustment of US monetary policy is not only the basic means of regulating our national economy, but also the root cause of the change of US dollar exchange rate.

If the Chinese people do not know this clearly, they will not be able to find an effective way to deal with the change of the US dollar exchange rate.

For example, after the US internet bubble burst in 2000 and the 911 incident in 2001, the United States was stimulated by the depreciation of the dollar to stimulate national consumption.

At that time, the dollar was so weak that even Buffett had to go overseas to find investment opportunities. But the weak dollar finally made the US housing market continue to grow, and the US economy was also out of recession.

In 2008, the financial tsunami broke out, and a large number of overseas dollar repatriation made the US dollar go up sharply, resulting in the US stock market plummeting.

Subsequently, the United States immediately introduced the policy of volume expansion, and the dollar began to depreciate rapidly (from 86 to 75 in one year), thus making the non dollar currency rapidly appreciate and the US dollar continued to weaken.

Because the US dollar continued to be weak for several years, it not only enhanced American exports, promoted the real estate and economic recovery in the US, but also made the US economy go out of recession.

With the recovery of the US economy, the Fed has begun to withdraw from the broader policy and indicate when the Fed will raise interest rates.

The exchange rate of the dollar began to rise gradually and began to turn from weakness to strength.

The rapid change in the US dollar soon brought chaos to the international financial market, the rapid flow of funds in emerging markets, the sharp drop in share remittance, and the frequent decline in international oil prices. The 30 year treasury bonds in the United States also fell by 3.

The rise in the US dollar and the confusion in the international financial market lie not only in the rise of the US dollar and in the return of the US, but also in the fact that the strength of the US dollar may just begin.

If empirical value data are used, the US dollar cycle will last for 8 years, so the US dollar will still have a strong 5 years to go.

According to HSBC's analysis, the US dollar is the "king of exchange rate" in the next two years, at least 20% increase.

However, from historical data, it is rather uncertain if the US dollar is strong enough.

according to

The trade weighted US dollar index has risen 7.8% since the dollar index this year, but only to the high level since 2011, it did not rise to the 2009 high as against the US dollar exchange rate index.

During the period from July 2008 to October, the US dollar increased by 21%; during the US dollar bull market from 1995 to 2000, the US dollar rose by 43%; from 1980 to early 1985, the US dollar rose by about 60%.

At present, the US dollar exchange rate index is about 85, but the highest is 156.

As for the next few years, the US dollar

It should be very uncertain where to go, but the dollar is strong enough to predict that it will not change in the near term.

As the largest consumer country in the world, the strength of the US dollar will not only help us to export the growth momentum of the US, but also lead to a large adjustment in the prices of assets and commodities around the world, which will lead to huge changes in the flow of funds and interests in the global financial market.

And this may also have a huge impact on Chinese.

Because for the domestic people and enterprises, in the early fluctuations of the US dollar exchange rate, because the degree of globalization of domestic enterprises is not high, the wealth and assets of the people are very limited, and there is no global allocation. Most people do not have this experience.

However, the current situation is quite different from that of a few years ago. The globalization of domestic enterprises' economy, the global allocation of wealth and capital at home, and the frequent going out of the country mean that the change of US dollar exchange rate will have a huge impact on the operation of enterprises and the accumulation of people's lives and wealth.

For example, when children go abroad to study, whether they go to the US dollar countries or non dollar countries, are they going abroad now or going abroad after several years?

If we go to the US dollar countries, the earlier it can be converted into US dollars, the lower the cost may be; if we go to non dollar countries, the time to exchange foreign currencies is different.

Besides, there are not only RMB and non US dollar currencies, but also RMB and US dollar exchange rates.

For example, the current people in China

Not only in China, but also in global asset allocation.

So a strong dollar is not only a question of what assets to hold, when to hold, but also what assets to hold.

The strength of the US dollar will play a very important role.

In short, the US dollar is the only international currency at present. The strength of the US dollar, especially its continued strength, means that the risk of holding US dollar assets for a period of time will be minimal and the returns may be the best.

As for what kind of assets the Chinese people are willing to hold under the US dollar, that is only the problem of investor preference, but the Chinese need to see clearly the trend, so that the Chinese can find a good way to deal with the strength of the dollar, increase their wealth and reduce the risk of holding wealth.

However, the Chinese must pay attention to the fact that the US dollar is strong and you must move. This is closely related to your family life, wealth growth and enterprises.