China'S Mink Export Is Not Optimistic In The Financial Crisis

The global financial tsunami triggered by the United States has spread to the European continent, and the Eastern European market which has limited relevance to the international financial market can not escape being looted. The Eastern European countries are facing the worst economic recession in 10 years and may become the "worst hit area" of the second wave of the tsunami. According to Hongkong's Wen Wei Po, Russia, as the largest economy in Eastern Europe, has a "drop in line". The sharp drop in oil price, the withdrawal of funds, the high external debt, the depreciation of the currency and the rising unemployment rate have led to a severe situation in the political, economic and social situation. If the financial difficulties continue to deteriorate, it will become a "reprint" of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia ten years ago. The country entered bankruptcy crisis. Li Jianmin, a researcher from the Russian Academy of East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with China Securities Journal that under the export oriented economic structure, Russia's economy has been closely linked to the international energy market for a long time. In particular, the international crude oil price has almost become the "lifeblood" of the Russian economy. In the past ten years, international oil prices have surged forward and Russia has made a lot of money. The Russian government has repeatedly stressed itself as a "safe haven" and "safety island" in the financial crisis. However, as the financial crisis continues to spread, oil demand in the international market sharply decreases and oil prices fall sharply, the Russian economy will plunge into the first recession in ten years. According to the latest figures released by the Russian Ministry of economic development, the gross domestic product of Russia increased by 5.6% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. In January this year, Russian industrial production decreased by 16% compared with the same period last year, the largest decline in 15 years. In view of this economic data, Li Jianmin believes that Russia's economic trend will be directly related to oil prices. If oil prices do not fluctuate too much in the future and maintain at 50 US dollars per barrel, Russia will be able to generate profits and generate revenues on foreign exchange. If the oil price is restored to $70, Russia's debt risk pressure will be reduced, and it will be able to adjust the economic development to a virtuous circle. However, the world can not be as satisfactory as expected. Because of the poor economic situation, many private enterprises in Russia are unable to repay the debt maturity. The debt crisis may drag down the entire financial system. Li Jianmin pointed out that Russia has about 150 billion dollars in foreign debt this year. Banks and enterprises can only rely on the government to repay them without funds. Because the government has the ability to take risks, although foreign debt will not be affected in the short term, there may be a peak of debt repayment in 2011. Whether the debt repayment can be dealt with at that time really tests Russia's strength. Other countries in Eastern Europe are also heavily indebted. According to the bank for International Settlements, as of the end of 2008, the total foreign debt of Eastern European countries had exceeded US $1 trillion and 540 billion, of which Poland and Czech accounted for 100% of their GDP, while Hungary's external debt was more than two times of its GDP. First, analyze the relationship between macro economy and industry development. Recently, Russia's economy, which is closely related to domestic mink breeding industry, has made me even more worried about the development of mink breeding industry in China. As we all know, the sales channels of domestic mink are mainly Russian merchants. But from the recent news reports: the Russian economic downturn can continue for a period of time, which will directly affect the development of the long mink industry. Two, from the domestic market analysis, the following personal views on the current market, I hope to give farmers some advice: 1, from the current garment processing plant, the first is 08 years of processing clothing sold at a low price, but there is still a lot of inventory. Directly leading to the start of the 09 year market will be postponed until around May, or even later. 2. At present, there are a lot of stock in the raw leather market, which is expected to be around 2 million. 3, middlemen overstock part of the leather stock, it is understood that 08 years of seasonal leather sales rate of about 50%, and a large number of skin backlog. 4. The unpredictability of the economic crisis has a direct impact on the confidence of every link in the breeding chain and causes panic. In view of the above factors, I personally believe that the ups and downs of the market in the 09 years will not be too large. Under certain circumstances, we may have problems that we do not want to see. The price of leather continues to slide on the basis of current prices. We hope that the customers will do well in the proportion of Supicha to fight against their own strength and do well in the 1-2 year long term farming plan. The current market situation: the market of the Po Po Road close to the rest market, and the occasional purchase price is as follows: Dalian public: 260---280 yuan / mother: 150---170 yuan / bar: Shandong public: 210---240 yuan / mother: 130---150 yuan / strip above the price, because the volume is small, does not represent the market price. More clothing investment information, click here to enter the responsibility editor: Wang Xiaonan