Analysis Of Several Factors Affecting The Trend Of International Cotton Prices In 2014

< p > here the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > shoes < < hat net "Xiaobian to introduce the several factors that affect the trend of international cotton price in 2014.

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< p > as of July 10th, the United States signed a total of 2 million 450 thousand tons of net cotton exports in July 10th, including 2 million 296 thousand tons of upland cotton, 2 million 242 thousand tons of total shipment of cotton and 91.5% shipment, of which 634 thousand tons were contracted to China, accounting for 25.9% of the US cotton contract volume, and 565 thousand tons of shipment to China, accounting for 89.2% of China's contracted volume.

With the pfer of orders from Europe, America, Japan, Africa and South America to Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries with low cost, low raw materials and low labor, China's pricing power in the international cotton market has continued to weaken, and the decline in the dependence on foreign cotton has become more evident.

What are the factors affecting the trend of international cotton prices in 2014? < /p >

< p > 1. The weather condition of the cotton market in the United States, India, China and Africa before the new cotton market is still the focus of attention of the enterprises such as speculative fund, cotton merchant, cotton a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a >.

It is estimated that by the end of August, China's national cotton stocks will remain at more than 12 million tons. Even if there is a relatively large natural disaster in the cotton fields of Xinjiang, the Yellow River and the Yangtze River Basin, there will be insufficient support for domestic cotton uplink in 2014. After all, according to annual consumption estimates, the state reserve stock is enough for Chinese textile enterprises to use for nearly two years.

In the past two years, the signing and export of American cotton and India cotton have expanded "divergence". Although the output has not increased significantly, the impact on the market and the textile enterprises has increased, and the restrictions on the global cotton enterprises have been deepened. Once the cotton price or "domestic price" has been affected by factors such as rainfall, drought, air temperature, frost, procurement and so on, the domestic and international cotton prices or "run counter to each other" - the domestic price of cotton has been stable or falling, and the difference between inside and outside cotton has narrowed to 1500 yuan / ton or even below 1000 yuan / ton; < /p >

< p > two, the quantity and momentum of China's imported yarn is also an important factor affecting the trend of international cotton prices.

According to customs statistics, the number of imported cotton yarn in China in 2012 and 2013 was 1 million 526 thousand and 500 tons and 2 million 98 thousand and 500 tons respectively, representing an increase of 69.01% and 37.47% over the same period, while in 2014 1-6 months, the total import cotton yarn 987 thousand tons in China increased by 2.32% over the same period last year. The annual import volume exceeded the 2 million tons per year, although the growth rate slowed down considerably, but the occupation of domestic cotton yarn share did not stop.

As China's market imports continue to increase, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and other countries textile enterprises external cotton (especially the United States cotton, India cotton, Pakistan cotton) procurement and consumption continues to grow.

With the upgrading of China's large and medium-sized textile enterprises, the technological pformation of equipment and products has been completed. Competition has been concentrated on over C60S yarn, new fiber yarns and blended yarns. The market of C40S and below has been occupied by cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Thailand. Therefore, the main factors that decide the export volume, CIF price and stock of cotton, India cotton and West Africa cotton are the quantity and enthusiasm of Chinese weaving enterprises, garment factories and traders ordering Foreign yarn. < /p >

< p > three, the government of China and India has played a guiding role in the global market in accordance with the 2014 cotton regulation policy.

In 2014, the Chinese government no longer "unlimited" storage, and in the cotton area of Xinjiang pilot cotton "direct subsidy" policy, "target reference price" is 19800 yuan / ton, the industry analysis, on the one hand, the domestic cotton market will be adjusted by policy led to "market" leading, domestic and foreign cotton prices will gradually close or even a limited degree of "convergence"; on the other hand, support the high price of domestic and foreign cotton prices "crutches" no longer, and by the end of August, the national cotton auction will also temporarily stop, 17250 yuan / ton auction price will also be invalid, new cotton prices fell little controversy between buyers and sellers, the key is in which position to stop or stabilize or even rebound.

In addition, it is important for the Chinese government to adjust the control policy of cotton import quotas in 6-12 and the support of credit for cotton import business.

Recently, according to the India Economic Affairs Committee (CCEA), the lowest purchase price of seed cotton (MSP) in 2014/15 has been raised by 50 rupees / KT, compared with this year, of which the middle rank cotton has been raised to 3700 rupees / KT from 3700 rupees / KT. The middle and long staple cotton has risen from 4000 rupees / KT to 4050 rupees / KT. In addition, the India government's investment in cotton textile and clothing industry has been significantly stimulated by cotton consumption. The latest projections of USDA, ICAC and Cotlook all think that the cotton demand, cotton yarn, cloth and clothing output in India will be greatly improved in 2014.

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< p > four, the progress of the global economic recovery has a great impact on global cotton consumption and procurement.

After a contraction in the first quarter, the two quarter's economic data show that the economy is back to recovery.

Analysts expect the US economy to continue its two quarter recovery in the second half of the year, and the focus of the market will be on the Fed's interest rate hike.

Because with the recovery of the US economy, the risk of financial market is increasing at low interest rate level, and the market calls for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates ahead of time.

The Federal Reserve will decide whether to end its asset purchase plan at the regular meeting of monetary policy in October this year, which means that the QE policy that has lasted for more than 5 years will be withdrawn completely.

The economies of China, Brazil, India and Russia will be greatly affected by the withdrawal of QE3 from the US.

Relative to the "good" US economic data, The Associated Press analysis indicates that the successive problems in the European banking industry may further impact the debt market, making the government borrowing costs more expensive, which will make it harder for Portugal and Greece to recover from the sovereign debt crisis since 2011.

The BRICs are now in the stage of slowing economic growth, low consumption and self adjustment. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole economy, the process of recovery is crucial to the consumption of cotton, cotton yarn, cotton cloth and clothing.

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< p > above four factors, some institutions and foreign businessmen have judged that the oversupply of cotton, the overall tightening of credit, the obvious lack of support for high cotton prices, and the general trade of the Chinese government, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton < /a > import quotas will be difficult to get "one vote" and the economic situation is deteriorating at any time. In the past 2014 years, the international cotton prices have been more elbows.

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