RMB Rising Trend Is Still In The Future.

< p > "from the current situation, the first is the offshore NDF (non deliverable Forex Forex Trading) has the devaluation pressure, the two is the residents and enterprises monetary assets allocation" a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" diversification "/a" will increase, three is the management allowed the exchange rate volatility increases, the growth rate of foreign trade stabilizes slightly, and the impact of external environment, the RMB will depreciate pressure in the future. "

Chen Hufei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar) Financial Research Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporters.

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"P > > a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> foreign exchange < /a > the 16 day of the bank's foreign exchange settlement and foreign exchange payment data from banks showed that in May, the bank settled 874 billion 300 million yuan (equivalent to 141 billion 900 million US dollars), sold 850 billion 200 million yuan (equivalent 137 billion 900 million US dollars), and the sales surplus was 24 billion 100 million yuan (equivalent value of 4 billion US dollars), which is the lowest level of surplus in the single month sale and sale this year.

It is worth mentioning that on the same day, the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.1537, which was 34 points lower than the previous trading day.

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< p > this is the ninth consecutive month of surplus in the foreign exchange settlement and sale of banks, but the balance has declined for four consecutive months, and has dropped by more than 60% over the past month. This is the case in August.

The central parity of the RMB exchange rate has fallen by more than 200 basis points since its highest point last Friday.

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< p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > narrowing of the surplus of the bank's sales and sales surplus > /a > indicates that the willingness of the market participants of the residents and enterprises to decrease the exchange rate is declining under the condition that the appreciation expectation of the RMB exchange rate is weakened and the expectation of the depreciation is enhanced.

Chen Hufei said.

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< p > "at present, the rigid expectation of RMB appreciation tends to weaken, the price level of commodities in China is higher, and there are also some risk factors in China's economy. The market should weaken the expectation of RMB appreciation, and the future RMB will fluctuate around the equilibrium level."

Earlier, Zong Liang, deputy director of the Bank of China International Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters.

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Zhou Wenyuan, chief executive of Guotai Jun, P, said there was no solid foundation for the early appreciation of the renminbi, which determines the sustainability of the appreciation and the short-term direction of monetary policy.

The current appreciation of the RMB exchange rate may continue for some time, but the space is not very large. The expansion of two-way volatility is a big probability event in the future.

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< p > "at present, the pressure of RMB devaluation will continue to increase, and the willingness of residents to freely settle foreign exchange may decline. Under such a market expectation, the foreign exchange surplus should be slightly smaller than the trade surplus."

Chen Hufei thinks.

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