Liu Fuhou Talked About The Contradiction Between Supply And Demand Of Cotton, And Waited For The New Deal Of The State To Come Out.

Here world clothing shoes The Xiaobian of the hat net introduces Liu Fuhou: the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton is outstanding, waiting for the new deal of the state to come out.

First of all, in the current market environment, we will analyze whether our cotton purchase and storage policy is reasonable. The cotton purchase and storage policy formulated by the state is designed to increase the income of cotton farmers and stabilize the market price of cotton. This policy seems reasonable, but it has only played a role in raising cotton prices, and has not played a stabilizing role. We bought the cotton at a high price and sold it to the enterprises at a high price. The enterprises bought high priced cotton, which eventually led to the sale of the products. This policy even protected the cotton farmers from abroad.

Now, the national cotton store is losing money to sell, and it is the money of the state finance and the taxpayer's money. This money is mainly the tax paid by industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises. Farmers basically have no taxes. Spin It is extremely unfair that enterprises should pay taxes to supply cotton farmers, and textile enterprises will buy cotton cotton growers at a high price. The result is that cotton farmers have made profits, but textile enterprises are losing money. Our 20400 yuan / ton has collected 98% of China's cotton, and the textile enterprises will have to buy high price for you. If you lose the money, 17250 yuan / ton will be sold to the enterprises, which is still the highest price in the world. How can the products produced by the textile enterprises sell? Our textile enterprises can not use the cheap imported cotton very much, how can they survive? China has always been an important textile exporter, and it has not been a little competitive in the past few years. China's textile enterprises will be forced or closed, or hard to support, or escape from China and run to foreign factories. Fortunately, this policy has been cancelled, and we will not talk much about it.

But this year, we also encourage cotton farmers to increase their planting area and output with the subsidy of target price. I think this is a continuation of the wrong policy. The basic principle of economics is that commodity prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Serious oversupply is bound to lead to a fall in prices. A simple analysis of supply and demand in China can illustrate this point. Data show that the demand for cotton in China is more than 9 million tons per year. I think the statistics need to be discussed. According to my calculation, it should be the number of national cotton reserves and the quantity of imported cotton, which is the demand for domestic cotton, because the state stores purchase 98% cotton annually, and the domestic market has no circulation of cotton, only about 1000000 tons of annual dumping and about 2000000 tons of imports, which are less than 4 million tons, which should be the annual demand. Another algorithm can also draw a similar conclusion: if our demand is really about 9000000 tons per year, then the annual import volume of about 2000000 tons plus about 6000000 tons per year can just meet domestic demand. So where is the national cotton store of about 6000000 tons per year? It is obvious that the data of domestic cotton demand about 9000000 tons is not true, and the actual demand should be below 4 million tons.

Oversupply is already an indisputable fact. In China, there are 13 million tonnes of cotton stored in the State Reserve, which accounts for 60% of the total annual cotton demand in the world. Demand is so small, inventory is so large, plus the annual increase of about 6000000 tons of cotton, it can be said that the contradiction between supply and demand has reached a very serious level. Therefore, the policy of stimulating production with target prices is also wrong. It will cause China's cotton price to become the lowest in the world, and cotton growers or countries will suffer huge losses.

Nevertheless, this year's new deal has been promulgated. As a policy of the government, there should be continuity. It should be carried out, otherwise the cotton farmers will not know what to do, and the government will also take the risk of trust crisis. Therefore, the key task now is to find a feasible implementation plan. Since the publication of document 1, up to now, the state has not yet issued a complete implementation rule, so it is an urgent problem to be solved. Then I will talk about my own views.

1. How to determine the market price of subsidies this year?

Now the target price is 19800 yuan / ton has been set, there is a market price is not determined, that is, the price difference between the target price and the market price has not yet been determined. How can the market price be fixed? The Council of the second cotton association announced that the average selling price of lint cotton in 2014 should be set as the market price in 10-12 months. This method can truly reflect the prevailing market prices, but there are also drawbacks. Because the market price of lint is not yet available, there will be differences between the prices of the cotton mill in the future. If all the calculations are made, the workload will be too great. Moreover, if the price of cotton ginning plants is low in the future, the pressure of financial expenditure will be too great. Therefore, it is best to determine the market price now, so that farmers will have a good idea of how much subsidies they can get, and guide their sales methods and prices.

I think we can use the price discovery function of futures to determine the market price, because now traders are trading at this price, and the ginning factory can also sell at this price in the futures market, which is the expected price of the real lint trade now. According to the idea of setting the market price according to the average selling price of cotton lint in 10-12 months, we can choose the price of the 1411 contract of futures market cotton to determine the market price. Now the futures price of the cotton 1411 contract is 16300 yuan / ton, and the processing fee of 500 yuan / ton less than the ginning factory is 15800 yuan / ton. We will fix the price as the market price of cotton, that is, the market price of Cotton Subsidy this year is 15800 yuan / ton. This makes full use of the characteristics of futures market serving the spot market.

The market price has been determined, and the specific method of subsidy has been settled. The target price is 19800 yuan / ton, and the market price is 15800 yuan / ton. If the price is reduced by lint cotton, the target price minus the market price is equal to 4000 yuan per ton. According to seed cotton supplement, 4000 yuan is multiplied by 38% of the linen percentage, equal to 1520 yuan per ton, converted to 0.76 yuan per catty; by mu, 0.76 yuan is multiplied by the average yield of 550 kg in Xinjiang, which is equal to the additional amount of 418 yuan per mu.

When cotton farmers are subsidized, they should be made up of cotton linen or cotton seed, or by mu. My tendency is to supplement seed cotton or mu, which can be directly added to the hands of farmers. However, if seed cotton is added, it may also be concealed and sold for 500 Jin, which is said to be 800 Jin, with more than one set of state subsidies. I think the most appropriate way is to fill the amount according to the number of mu, the amount of the number of Mu directly to 418 yuan per mu to cotton growers to grant subsidies.

As a result, the market price has been set, the amount of subsidy has been fixed, and the financial expenditure has been counted.

With this rule, the ginning mill can carry out the hedging operation in the futures market. Now it can be converted into 6000 yuan / ton seed cotton price and cotton grower's purchase contract according to the price of 15800 yuan / ton of lint. The cotton mill is processed into lint and sold at the price of 16300 yuan / ton in the 1411 contract of the futures market, and it can earn 500 yuan of processing fee per ton of lint. This ensures the future production. The farmers can sell the seed cotton at the price of 3 yuan / Jin, plus the subsidy of 0.76 yuan / Jin, and the cotton farmers are also selling at the price of 19800 yuan / ton of lint, which avoids the risk of falling cotton prices in the future. This is good for businesses and cotton farmers.

　 Two, how to solve the huge stock left behind by storage

The temporary purchase and storage policy appeared in 2008. At that time, the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in the United States, the global commodity prices plummeted, sales dropped sharply, China's cotton and rubber prices fell to more than 8000 yuan / ton, corn also appeared selling hard, 1400 yuan / ton no one wanted. Under such circumstances, the state has issued a temporary collection and storage policy. At that time, the policy of collecting and storing really played a role in protecting the interests of farmers. At that time, the state's collection and storage also had the meaning of "bottom hunting". Corn was 1500 yuan / ton, and cotton was 12600 yuan / ton. This will not only protect the interests of farmers, but also increase revenue. It is a good policy to kill two birds with one stone. Later on, the policy of collecting and storing stocks changed. It used the highest price in the world to purchase, and the policy was now out of stock. {page_break}

Now, the stock of 13 million tons of cotton that has been stored and stored has become a hot potato. When cotton growers are difficult to sell cotton, the government can sell them at a high price, and no one can save you when the national cotton store is hard to sell. How to eat this sweet potato and how to retire from the tiger? This requires us to discuss together.

According to the current selling speed, to the new cotton, the State Cotton store will sell about 2000000 tons at most, leaving 11 million tons of stock remaining. The new cotton output this year is estimated to be 6 million tons. Not counting the import part, there will be 17 million tons in total, and the demand is less than 4 million tons. How to deal with it? If we do not seriously solve the 13 million ton national storage cotton now, then it will be backlog in the Treasury, and it may become "unfinished cotton".

If you want to digest 13 million tons of stock, you can only throw it away. If you want to throw it up, the price will be lower than the import price. If the reserve price is still above the import price, you will not be able to sell it. At the same time, imported cotton can not be imported into large quantities, and the quantity and speed of the sale of national cotton can be guaranteed. Therefore, we should make full use of the 6 months, 7 and 8 of the new cotton market which are not listed for the next three months. In order to increase the purchasing power of enterprises, in addition to lowering prices, they should also cancel the import cotton matching of 4:1. The current selling price of 17250 yuan / ton will continue to decrease, which will be reduced at least once a month for three months, reducing 1000 yuan / ton at a time, and striving to control the inventory of national cotton reserves below 8 million tons before the new cotton goes public.

In order to avoid the pressure of new cotton prices coming into being on the market, we should allow cotton farmers to set aside the sale of cotton, so we can consider suspending the storage at the end of August, and then start dumping in January of 2015. I expect that China will not produce any more cotton in the future, and it will take at least three years to digest the existing stock of cotton and reduce its losses to a minimum.

Another way to digest inventory is to enable enterprises to purchase state-owned cotton stores to enter the futures market for sale. The advantage of futures market is to diversify and increase sales strength. The relevant departments can consult with Zheng merchants to change the warehouses of national cotton stores into the delivery banks of cotton futures. The storage and withdrawal orders issued by enterprises can be directly converted into warehouse receipts for futures, allowing deliveries in futures markets, so that enterprises can use futures hedging to defuse the risk of price changes, and at the same time, they can reduce the cost of many intermediate links and speed up the dumping of state-owned cotton stores.

Three, thinking about cotton policy in the future

1, completely negate the current cotton protection policy, including the policy of purchasing and storing, price subsidy, and purchasing at the bottom. The common feature of these policies is to stimulate the enthusiasm of cotton growers, which will inevitably lead to an increase in planting area and increase in output. Even if it does not increase, it will not reduce much, so that the excess capacity will continue to expand. Collecting and storing has solved the problem of cotton farmers' difficulty in selling cotton. This is the transfer of this problem to the state. Now the state does not purchase and store it, and it becomes a target price subsidy policy. It also needs to digest the huge stock formed by the purchase and storage. How can cotton enterprises buy the new cotton that is more than the domestic demand, like the State Reserve, then the phenomenon of selling cotton will be difficult. At that time, cotton will probably not be in the hands of the cotton traders, or in the hands of the cotton growers or backlog in the national storage.

Moreover, if there is no bottom line to subsidize the full spread, cotton farmers can receive subsidies at a very low price. Even if the market price of the subsidy is set, it is almost certain that the new cotton will be sold below the market price. Although the cotton farmers can get the full subsidy from the price difference between the market price and the target price, they will also lose money. The government has so much money to protect the interests of cotton farmers, but it has been discounted and failed to achieve the desired results.

In short, cotton target price subsidies continue to be implemented, not only can not turn the tide, but also may add to the burden. Therefore, we must thoroughly abolish and stop introducing any form of cotton protection policy with courage and courage.

2, thoroughly renew our ideas. We must have sufficient confidence in the market economy, eliminate the psychological stereotypes and inertia thinking formed in the past when we are short of commodities, and fully understand the complementary role of commodity circulation formed by the international division of labor.

In those days, foreign wheat sold to China was only 0.40 yuan / kg, and our planting cost was close to 1 yuan / Jin. Policy makers resolutely implement the policy of returning farmland to forests, use a lot of land to grow trees and grass, improve the environment, supplement domestic demand through imports, and grain can still be solved by complementarity of global commodity circulation, so it should be more feasible on cotton.

3, resolutely eliminate backward production capacity. At this stage, China's agricultural production means are still very backward and inefficient. It can be said that the protection of farmers' interests is to protect backward productive forces, that is, to protect backward production capacity. Just like this year, the corn in the hands of farmers in Northeast China has been mildew, and the country has all collected it. The state has laid a foundation, so who will seriously manage food in the future, and even the bad ones will have to pay the bill. This is a way to protect lazy people and encourage mistakes.

4, encourage farmers to enter the city. The policy of encouraging cotton cultivation is also contrary to the goal of urbanization. It is not contradictory to encourage farmers to go to cities and encourage planting. Labor force has become a scarce resource in the world. Abolition of incentive policies can liberate large numbers of farmers from inefficient labor and integrate into the global labor market. The turning point of China's population is coming. The problem of aging has become increasingly apparent. In the future, there will be labor shortage in all trades and professions, that is, the transfer of a large number of rural labor force may not be able to fill this gap. Effective labor force has always been China's advantage, but now it has become a disadvantage. The shortage of labor is caused by farmers leaving land for planting. Xinjiang alone has to use 1.2 million cotton pickers every year. In contrast, many enterprises in the Pearl River Delta have transferred to Southeast Asia to build factories due to higher labor costs. All these prove that the allocation of labor resources is not reasonable. Freeing the productive forces and reducing the cost of employing enterprises of textile enterprises and increasing the competitiveness of exports, China's industrial production can form a virtuous circle. Therefore, we must liberate the productive forces again and release the large quantities of rural labor force, and China's economy will have a future.

5, take the "shock therapy" to control the planting area of cotton. The government can try to impose a cotton planting tax, that is, planting other crops tax free and planting cotton to levy taxes so as to rapidly reduce the planting area of cotton.

6, vigorously promote the adverse factors of cotton planting. From 2015 onwards, even from now on, cotton farmers are strongly publicized about the risks of cotton planting: first, the global surplus of cotton and huge storage capacity in China; two, our production costs are too high and are not competitive. The cost of planting cotton and soybean is basically the same as that of mechanized operations in the United States. The price difference is only due to the difference in yield per unit area. If soybeans and seed cotton yield is the same, then the price should be the same. Soybean is now selling 4000 yuan / ton, and seed cotton should also be sold for 4000 yuan / ton, which is about 10000 yuan / ton, and now the cotton imported from the United States is 15000 yuan / ton. Now the target price stimulus policy, although loosened to cotton prices, enterprises can buy in accordance with the market price and participate in market competition, but our high cost planting and low price sales will also greatly hurt the interests of cotton farmers.

Therefore, from the perspective of cost, we should not compete with foreign countries in cotton planting. Instead, we should be like "counting plates" replaced by Western calculators and computers.

7, guide cotton growers to adjust their planting structure. From 2015, cotton planting can be carried out by seed replanting, rotation or rotation. In two or three years, China's 6 million tons of cotton will basically disappear, and the surplus capacity will be removed from the roots, so that the national cotton reserves will be sold as soon as possible.

8, we should not blindly copy the foreign cotton subsidy policy. Some people think that foreign countries also subsidize cotton. Why can't we subsidize it? From my point of view, the agricultural subsidy policy of foreign countries is qualitatively different from ours. Foreign cotton subsidy policy is not only a welfare allowance for cotton farmers, but also an integral part of its global economic strategy, with the aim of enhancing export competitiveness of cotton. Although subsidies are targeted at cotton farmers, they actually subsidize enterprises. If the cotton grower wants to sell 8 yuan, I make up 2 yuan, you sell 6 yuan to the enterprise. Enterprises get 6 yuan to get cotton, the cost is low, export is more competitive. Our situation is different from that of foreign countries. Our cost is too high. If we make financial subsidies to achieve international competition, we will have to pay huge financial expenses. It is unwise to support a high cost industry with high subsidies to compete with the relatively competitive industries with relatively low foreign subsidies. I think this is a very unwise move. {page_break}

9, we must strictly control the import of cotton. At present, there is a huge pressure on cotton inventory and overcapacity of cotton production in our country. This year, the state will not store up any more. Cotton farmers will face difficulties in selling cotton. If the country imports cotton more, it will undoubtedly exacerbate the contradictions. Therefore, we must strictly control the import volume of cotton so as to reduce the difficulty of cotton sales in China.

10, attract professional investors to participate in the formulation of economic policies. Throughout our economic policies, many have not achieved the desired results. They often fail to take account of them and some even go to the opposite side. The reasons for this situation are various and complex. There may be some unreasonable elements involved in policy formulation. Professional investors are the scarce high-end resources in the world. They can consider absorbing their opinions. They can think about the rationality of policies with just thinking. They can use economic operation rules to deduce the problems encountered in the implementation of policies, find the crux of the problems, and put forward methods to prevent and solve problems.

11, reserve the necessary cotton reserves. For strategic reasons, it is necessary for the state to reserve adequate reserves to protect the needs of the army and disaster relief. This can be counted out. I don't think the quantity will be large enough. Hundreds of thousands of tons will be enough. If this part of the reserve needs a round store, it can not be sold to the market to interfere with the market. Otherwise, it may cause panic in the market, so that operators dare not operate, thereby combating the enthusiasm of the market players. This part of the reserve should be directly used in the welfare activities such as poverty alleviation. Only by not interfering with the market can we establish a real market economy order and perfect the market operation system.

　 Four. Forecast of cotton purchase price in 2014-2015 years.

The price trend of cotton in 2014-2015, I would like to give you a brief analysis. After the abolition of the cotton purchase and storage policy this year, the overall operation of the cotton industry will have to turn to the market. Now the market has such a few blocks: one is the foreign market, the other is the domestic market, and there is a futures market. From now on, there are three kinds of market prices, one is the price of throwing 17250 yuan / ton, another is the price of imported cotton, roughly 15000 yuan / ton, and the other is the futures market price. Now the price of the 1501 contract is about sixteen thousand yuan. Since cotton enters the market directly, it will follow the market rule, that is, to comply with the market price. At present, the lowest price of these three prices is the import price of 15000 yuan / ton of imported cotton. From traders, cotton traders and processing plants, it is definitely the lowest among these three prices, and only when the price is lower than the price of imported cotton can it be profitable. According to the present large inventory, if the present price remains unchanged, the opening price of this year should be around 14000 yuan / ton. The most daring acquirer is to purchase at this price, and it is a small purchase tentatively, because the buyer is very uncertain, and he will not dare to blindly collect more, but can only sell it on the side. Or sell them to spinning mills or sell them to futures markets. The stock market has stopped, and the futures market may be the main channel for cotton sales in the future. Therefore, I suggest that those big cotton dealers and cotton enterprises, including large cotton growers, such as corps and farm, can also make some articles in this open market this year, that is, when they are sold in the futures market, they will acquire profits in the spot market. If a lot of enterprises operate like this, a large number of registered warehouse receipts will be formed on the futures market, which will suppress the formation of futures prices and the futures prices of cotton will continue to fall. After the Spring Festival next year, cotton farmers or cotton traders will not be able to continue to store the cotton that they have collected. They will have to sell. Cotton prices may fall even more, and the cotton backlog may be in the hands of these people. At that time, the price of lint cotton is estimated to be below 10000 yuan / ton, and there is a possibility of further deterioration. In the next two or three years, I think the cotton price is not much more likely to return to more than ten thousand yuan per ton, because the stock is too large and the demand is too small. At the same time, I suggest that cotton enterprises and cotton traders can do some business operations before the new cotton comes into the market. They will be re sold from the cotton sold by the state auction or some imported cotton, and the backlog of cotton that can not be delivered to the national reserve. In the futures market 1409, the cotton contract (now the price is 17200 yuan / ton) is sold for delivery, because the cotton quality of the futures market is one or two lower than that of the national reserve. While trying to sell from the futures market, wait for the new cotton to come down.

Just now, I said that the price of new cotton lint this year will be 14000 yuan / ton, then the price of seed cotton will be 2.7 yuan / Jin. In short, I think the price of newly harvested seed cotton should be below 3 yuan / Jin this year, and the lower it is, the lower it will be. As I mentioned above, I suggest that national cotton reserves should be sold within three months. From now on, it has become a necessity to reduce sales. From the volume of dumping and storage, more than 60000 tons were traded in April 2nd, and 20 000 tons were sold in May 9th. The reason is that when the price is just dropping, the price is lower than the market price. People first buy the price "depression", and the turnover is larger. Through a month's sell-off, the market price of all cotton (including imported cotton and domestic cotton) is gradually closed to the reserve price and is lower than the selling price of the throwing reserve price. Then the national cotton reserves will not be sold, and the selling price will have to continue to be lowered. When the selling price and the market price continue to descend, the futures price will be suppressed. Then the futures price will continue to fall.

In short, 2014-2015 Cotton price The trend will be unpredictable. Every enterprise should grasp it appropriately and observe it. Only if you get the order can you buy a small amount, unless you have a hedging in futures, then you can purchase large quantities of stock. In my view, the overall situation of cotton market in 2014-2015 is very pessimistic: the price is not the lowest, only lower. Unless the government comes up with any protection policies, such as the acquisition of base price, or the temporary purchase and storage, the above analysis can not be wrong. If the government makes any further mistakes, it will become inevitable for the state cotton to rot in the Treasury, which will be punished most severely by the market at that time.