2014 Cotton Prices Forecast Decline Trend Is Difficult To Turn

< p > it is predicted that in 2013/14, China's "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp "national storage cotton < /a" will reach 11 million tons, which may take several years to reduce to a reasonable level, and this huge inventory will bring enormous pressure on world cotton prices whenever it is sold.

Analysis of the industry, 2014 is likely to become the turning point of the global cotton stocks from increasing to lower, and the cotton prices will fall in 2014.

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< p > < strong > global cotton market turbulence bottom > /strong > /p >

The annual trend of < p > a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp > > American cotton < /a > 2013 can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is: 1~3 month, the US cotton has gone out of a wave of unilateral rise, and the US cotton index has risen to 75 cents from the beginning of the year to the annual high point of 93 cents. The main reason for this increase is that the US cotton planting area has been greatly reduced, while the US cotton export data are better. The second stage: 4~8 month, the United States cotton is mainly in the range of 81~93 and the United States. The third stage: 9~12 month, the US cotton shock drop is the main factor, and in November, it returned to the 76 cents of the beginning of the market rise.

In the whole year, the US cotton failed to hit the bottom again.

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The trend can be roughly divided into three stages, the first phase: 1~3 month, Zheng cotton index rose from 19000 to 20500, and the main driving factors for the increase were two. First, the state announced at the beginning of this year that it could continue to open up and store up for 20400 yuan in the current year, and two of the last year's storage capacity was more than 6 million tons, resulting in a very small number of warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou cotton futures market. In recent months, the contract went out of the soft market position; the second stage: 4~7 month, the Zheng cotton index fluctuated around the 19600~20400 interval, the market lacked news stimulation, waited for the new year policy to be clear; third stage: 8~12 month, because the state did not continue to store and store the news in the 2014/15 year gradually, the Zheng cotton index continued to decline, from 20000 to the vicinity of 18500. < p > ZHENG cotton futures in 2013.

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< p > < strong > < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp > inventory < /a > heavy responsibilities. < /strong > /p >

< p > according to the latest demand and supply report released by the US Department of agriculture, the total supply of global cotton in is still in excess of demand, and the end of the world inventory continues to hit a record high.

From the perspective of supply, the supply of cotton in the world decreased slightly compared with the previous year, and the output of major cotton producing countries in China and the United States decreased significantly. The US output fell below 3 million tons, and India's output increased slightly to 6 million 300 thousand tons, which once again refreshed its historical record.

Consumption, due to the slow recovery of the global economy, the world's cotton consumption has increased to 23 million 880 thousand tons. China's consumption forecast is unchanged from the previous year. The main consumption growth comes from India and Pakistan. India consumption is expected to break through the 5 million tons mark for the first time.

In terms of inventory, the end of global cotton inventories exceeded 20 million tons mark for the first time and increased to 20 million 990 thousand tons, of which China's final inventory was 12 million 478 thousand tons.

Due to the continued storage this year, the trend of global cotton inventory to China is continuing.

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< p > from the beginning of 2010/11, the global a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp" > cotton inventory < /a > began to continue to rise. The end of the year of cotton in the 2009/10 year was 10 million 243 thousand tons. In the year of 2013/14, the end of the world cotton inventory increased to 20 million 990 thousand tons. In the 4 years, the world's cotton increased by 10 million tons. The demand for the world's cotton fell from the peak of 25 million 870 thousand tons in the year of 2009/10 to the bottom of 22 million 380 thousand tons in the 2011/12 year. The slow climb in the next two years basically coincide with the rhythm of the difficult recovery of the global economy.

From the perspective of global economic growth, it is unlikely that there will be a rapid recovery in the next few years. Slow recovery may still be the main keynote. Therefore, it is expected that the global cotton demand will not increase significantly in the next few years.

In the end of 2013/14, if the level of 20 million 990 thousand tons of final inventory dropped to about 12 million ~1400 million tons in history, it would be necessary to reduce the inventory from 2 million tons to 2 million tons per year from the beginning of 2014/15. This means that the global cotton supply in the next 3~4 year will be around 22 million tons, which is about 10% less than the current level.

From this point of view, the global cotton inventory can be said to be a long way to go, for cotton companies may be a long and painful process.

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