Cotton Purchase And Storage Will Stop Preparations For Direct Subsidy Policy.

< p > the interests of cotton growers emerge as the times require. Now, this policy that has been implemented for nearly three years has arrived at the turning point of "robbery and retreat".

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"P" should be "robbed", namely, "market robbery", that is, excessive market intervention, resulting in the weakening of the market mechanism, high quality < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > insufficient supply, and cotton spinning enterprises are difficult to survive because of the high cost; the two is the "gray robbery", that is, the policy of collecting and storing the import and export of cotton quotas, and the implementation of the quota management system of imported cotton has distorted operation, and has brought about the grey areas such as cotton spinning and quota scalping. Three is the "capital robbery". Such a huge amount of storage and consumption is huge, and the daily inventory, warehousing and other cost losses are hundreds of millions.

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According to authoritative sources, the top leaders of the state have made it clear that "the current cotton purchase and storage policy can no longer continue." the relevant departments of the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and the China Textile Industry Federation are investigating the direct subsidy policy, and are expected to launch a pilot project later this year or next year or formally promote it. "P"

This means that the direct subsidy policy has entered the "ready pregnancy", but "how to make up, how much to make up and how to ensure the subsidy is in place" needs careful consideration and comprehensive design, which is bound to be complicated and difficult.

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< p > < strong > misplaced "visible hand" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > "at present, it is very difficult for enterprises to operate, the shortage of raw materials for cotton procurement, the pressure of bank loans, and the increase of labor costs are all our biggest practical difficulties, of which raw material purchasing pressure is the biggest."

Zhang, a person in charge of a cotton textile enterprise in Shandong, sighed to the China Securities Journal reporter.

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< p > in the recent research, Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, also found that the difficulty of raw material procurement brought great harm to cotton textile enterprises.

"At present, from Shandong to Heze, the small cotton textile enterprises with less than 30 thousand spindles from Dezhou to 50% have been discontinued.

In the Anyang area of Henan, 50% of small cotton textile enterprises stopped production at the beginning of the year.

The large enterprises that are eligible to participate in the auction of national cotton stores and get the quotas of imported cotton are relatively better.

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< p > relevant data show that domestic cotton output is about 7 million 400 thousand tons in 2012/2013, and the country has collected and stored 6 million 500 thousand tons of cotton at 20400 yuan / ton storage price, accounting for 90% of the total cotton output in the country. This resulted in a serious shortage of cotton circulation in the market, and domestic cotton prices rose.

Although the state has released the storage and regulation supply since then, because the quality of the cotton reserves has declined seriously, and the price of the reserve cotton has reached 19000 yuan / ton, which is 4000-5000 yuan / ton higher than the import price of cotton at the same time, resulting in a low willingness to store the cotton enterprises.

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< p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp > storage and purchasing policy > /a > raise domestic cotton price, expand the price of cotton and increase the price in the long run. Large enterprises can get the quotas of imported cotton, so as to buy cheap imported cotton, so the operation is slightly better, and small and medium-sized enterprises can not buy cotton or can only buy high priced cotton, and the market competitiveness is reduced, so they shut down more.

Galaxy futures analyst Ji Hong pointed out.

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< p > we can see that in the competition of textile industry, the quota of imported cotton is the key to winning.

The so-called quotas for imported cotton are important means for the state to control the quantity of imported cotton, guarantee the sales of domestic cotton and protect cotton farmers.

It can be divided into two categories, one is the tariff rate of 1%, and the other is the tariff quota for levying taxes of 4-40%. The former is the quota of imported cotton that is tied up with the reserve cotton according to the proportion (hereinafter referred to as quotas). The other is the tariff quota of 1%.

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< p > according to the regulations, quotas are prohibited from trading privately.

However, in the context of high and low cotton prices and high quality of imported cotton, the demand for imported cotton is relatively large. The quota of imported cotton thus forms an active invisible market. Some qualified enterprises will make profits through selling quotas, or even rely on scalping quotas for survival. Some traders sniff out business opportunities and specializes in "quota brokers".

In response, the industry analysis said: "this is actually the market in the supply shortage conditions, forced to adjust the supply and demand of the helpless."

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< p > except for quotas, "turning cotton" is also a corner of grey area.

The so-called "turn around cotton" mainly refers to the reserve cotton re package that enterprises will sell at a low price and the packaging of the new cotton storage and storage in the new year. If the relevant costs are not considered, the profit margin of the cotton rotation per ton will be 1400 yuan based on the current 20400 yuan / ton storage price and the 19000 yuan / ton throw price.

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< p > "at present," turn around cotton "is not a common phenomenon. It has not affected the market price of the electronic disk and the state's policy of collecting and throwing.

Galaxy futures analyst Chen Xiao (micro-blog) Yan pointed out that many measures have been put in place to prevent "spinning cotton", including measures such as "supervision, reward reporting, margin deposit".

"But as long as there is profit margin in the purchase price and the market price, it is impossible to completely eliminate the" turn around cotton ".

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< p > in September of this year, new cotton is on the market, and the Department announced that the reserve cotton will be closed at the end of July 2013.

Dong Shuangwei, chief analyst of capital futures, believes that this may be to prevent the emergence of "turn cotton". It also indicates that the new flower will continue to implement the new policy of open storage and purchase after the listing of new flower.

"At the end of July, when the storage period before the new flower is closed, the possibility of continuous dumping will be greatly reduced if there is no effective measures to prevent cotton spinning."

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< p > "as a matter of fact, textile enterprises continue to write, calling for storage and storage.

It is reported that the state may adopt a compromise approach and will continue to put in reserve cotton at the end of July after two weeks of suspension.

Chen Xiaoyan said.

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< p > < strong > direct subsidy policy goes into "pregnancy" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > "purchasing and storage policy" is good intention. From the past two years, the purchasing and storage policy has played a certain role in protecting cotton farmers and stabilizing the planting area.

However, after two years of unlimited storage, the state has accumulated more than 10 million tons of reserves, which has consumed enormous manpower, material resources and financial resources. In this year, China's cotton inventory consumption ratio reached 140%, and cotton inventories accounted for more than 50% of the global final inventory, which is very rare in the world.

Galaxy futures analyst Ji Hong said.

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< p > Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, wrote accounts to reporters. In 2011/12, 3 million 130 thousand tons of storage were collected, and the storage price was 19800 yuan / ton, which cost 61 billion 974 million yuan. The storage and purchase price in 2012/13 increased to 20400 yuan / ton, and the total storage capacity reached 6 million 500 thousand tons, which cost 132 billion 600 million yuan, and accumulated storage capacity 9 million 630 thousand tons in two years. The total cost was 194 billion 574 million yuan.

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< p > "the funds for collecting and storing funds come from the loans issued by the agricultural development bank. The difference between the purchase and storage and the storage is subsidized by the Ministry of finance.

The cost of collecting and distributing the storage price plus warehousing, management, personnel and so on is about 3000 yuan per ton of cotton and 10 million yuan per ton, which is 30 billion yuan.

If we use direct subsidy policy, we may only need to spend 1/3 or less of it, so that we can achieve the goal of protecting cotton farmers and stabilizing the market.

Gao Yong sighed.

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According to authoritative sources, the top leaders of the state have made it clear that "the current cotton purchase and storage policy can no longer continue." the agriculture development bank also said it was difficult to support such a large-scale purchase and storage of loans for a long period of time, according to authoritative sources. P

At the same time, reporters learned that the relevant departments of the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and the China Textile Industry Federation are investigating the direct subsidy policy, and the pilot is expected to start in the second half of next year, or will be formally promoted next year.

This means that the direct subsidy policy has entered the "ready pregnancy". But how to make up, how much to make up and how to ensure that the subsidy is in place needs careful consideration and comprehensive design. The process of pregnancy is bound to be complicated and arduous.

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Dong Shuangwei, chief analyst of capital futures, said that the direct subsidy policy must solve a series of details before implementing the policy. For example, whether the direct subsidy is based on the amount of seed cotton or planting area, the specific standard of subsidy, whether the executive body of the subsidy is a certain ministries or associations, or is placed under the enterprise; how to supervise the implementation of the subsidy in the implementation process and prevent rent seeking activities as far as possible, and so on. P

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"P >" cotton direct subsidy policy makes the textile and garment industry expect to get cheaper raw materials. But if the direct subsidy policy has not been put in place, and has not fundamentally protected the interests of cotton farmers and stabilized cotton production, it may cause cotton prices to rise and fall because of the large fluctuation of cotton supply.

Therefore, policy designers are very cautious.

Chen Xiaoyan, Galaxy futures analyst, said that because of the fragmented cotton growing area and unclear area, how to ensure subsidies to the farmers in the hands of direct subsidy funds is still a problem.

Specifically, it is whether to fill or supplement the amount according to mu, whether the pilot is chosen or not, and the relevant departments have not yet formed the final opinion.

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< p > < strong > direct subsidy is not the final goal < /strong > < /p >

"P >" there are many imperfections in the current cotton policy. We advocate direct subsidy policy, just to break the current system and hope to achieve more marketization.

But the direct subsidy policy is not the best regulation policy. "

Gao Yong, vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Federation, said that only by stepping out of the small-scale farming mode and realizing the development of scale, mechanization and industrialization, improving the quality of cotton and enhancing the international competitiveness of enterprises, is the fundamental way to solve the cotton problem.

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< p > at present, Xinjiang Corps has begun large-scale use of mechanical picking, significantly improving the efficiency of cotton planting and reducing production costs, and at present, Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for 50-60% of the national cotton output.

Therefore, Xinjiang is not only the best pilot of direct subsidy policy, but also the experimental field and forerunner of the future cotton industry development mode.

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Chen Jing, a futures analyst at P, also thinks that direct subsidy is not the best solution. Foreign developed countries, such as the United States, prefer to solve the market problems by market means, such as futures, options and other financial derivatives to evade the risk of price fluctuation, thus replacing the original subsidy policy originally used to protect the interests of farmers.

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< p > from the perspective of industrial development, cotton textile enterprises should get out of the current predicament. Chen Jing believes that on the one hand, the textile industry must enhance its own survival and competitiveness, and can not freeze the industry to the low threshold and big price war situation in the first two years. We should increase R & D and brand building and training on the basis of guaranteeing quality. On the other hand, we should have a sense of risk control, and we can avoid certain market risks by means of financial instruments.

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< p > cotton spinning enterprise as a labor-intensive industry has played a great role in China's economic growth and foreign exchange earning for many years. However, in the pformation and upgrading of China's economic development, cotton textile enterprises are in a relatively sunset industry. After that, it should be based on structural industry adjustment, encourage mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backward production capacity and raise brand added value.

At the same time, we should learn from the advanced experience of the European and American markets, carry out risk management and control of raw materials, and find out the replacement of raw materials to meet the needs of the company's products. We should also use the price discovery and hedging function of the cotton futures market, effectively reduce the loss of raw material costs and storage losses, and lock in the expected profits of enterprises.

Chief futures analyst Dong Shuangwei said.

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< p > "we should try to solve the problems faced by < a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > cotton industry < /a > by means of marketization.

Dong Shuangwei suggested that in recent years, the policy factors to a certain extent caused the domestic cotton spinning enterprises to have a high cost of using cotton, and the relevant departments in the future should create a market and fair competition environment for enterprises.

On this basis, cotton textile enterprises should adapt themselves to the objective requirements of China's economic pformation and upgrading, and actively upgrade their product competitiveness and brand value.

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