Zheng Cotton Still Needs Support Because Of Its Internal And External Difficulties In The Textile Industry.

7 in the second half of the month, Cotton price More by the purchase and storage prices pull, and Chen cotton digestion will determine the magnitude of the market rise.

At present, there is no substantial change in cotton fundamentals, which is still oversupply, weak demand and policy support for purchasing and storage. From a time perspective, the bottom area of cotton prices can basically be determined, Chen cotton digestion will determine the next stage of the market.

　　 Supply and demand report was slightly more favorable in July

In July 11th, USDA's cotton supply and demand forecast report was generally slightly more neutral. The biggest bright spot is that after nearly a year of continuous increase in global cotton end inventory, USDA finally lowered the 2012/2013 end of the cotton inventory, which indicates that the fundamentals may have reached the mid-term inflection point. It is noteworthy that, while reducing cotton production in India and Pakistan, USDA has also increased cotton consumption, which has led to a decline in both 2012/2013 consumption and consumption in the two countries, which will support India and Pakistan's domestic cotton prices to a certain extent, easing the pressure of a sharp fall in cotton prices in the coming year. With the advent of the critical period of cotton growth, if the weather is unfavorable, there will still be room for reduction in global output and final inventory in next month's report.

　　 The textile industry is in a dilemma, and the yarn price is weak.

The export situation of China's textile industry is grim this year. The data released by the NDRC showed that in the first 5 months, China exported 90 billion 642 million US dollars of textiles and clothing, an increase of 2.06% over the same period last year, an increase of 24.47% over the same period last year, which is 6.64% lower than that of the same period in the same period last year. If the price increase factor is deducted, the actual export volume of the textile industry presents a negative growth. While the export is sluggish, the growth rate of domestic sales has also slowed down significantly. According to the data of China Textile Industry Association, in the first 5 months of this year, textile enterprises above Designated Size achieved 1 trillion and 757 billion 158 million yuan of domestic sales value, an increase of 18.51% compared with the same period last year.

The cause of the textile industry's survival is that the global economic crisis has led to the decline of consumption, but more importantly, due to the rising price of raw material, artificial energy and other factors of production, our country has become more and more difficult. Cotton yarn The competitive advantage of production is gradually losing, and a large number of orders are transferred to Southeast Asian countries represented by India and Pakistan. The author has learned from the communication with textile enterprises that although the quality of Pakistan India yarn is generally unstable at present, however, the Pakistan yarn has an unmatched price advantage of 32 or less and 21 to 40 of the yarn. Current domestic Textile enterprises There has been differentiation. The sales volume of textile enterprises in the production of medium and high grade products is relatively stable. The yarn with medium or low quality or poor quality has no advantage in the competition with imported yarns.

　 Domestic cotton stocks are high, and textile enterprises begin to replenishment.

USDA predicts that China's cotton end inventory will reach 6 million 924 thousand tons in 2012/2013, accounting for 43.9% of the final inventory in the world, and the inventory consumption will increase by 13.84% over the 2011/2012 year, reaching an alarming 80.42%.

Data show that by the end of May, the national cotton industry inventory was only 824 thousand tons, down 7.2%, down 18.14% from the same period last year. As of May, China has imported 4 million 250 thousand tons of cotton in 2012/2013. However, the trade of bonded cotton and clear cotton is not fast enough. At present, the number of cotton in the bonded area is as high as 1 million 500 thousand tons. Therefore, it can be considered that cotton stocks are mainly concentrated in the hands of national reserves and intermediaries, which is the biggest pressure on the market.

As cotton prices rebounded, cotton consumption began to dawn. According to the survey in June, some textile enterprises in China believed that the price of cotton was relatively low, and there was no room for further decline and began to replenish inventory. Of the surveyed enterprises, 41% of the enterprises began to increase their inventories, ending the decline in inventory for months. Breck's data also proved the current replenishment behavior of enterprises. In June, the stock of cotton industry was about 36 days, significantly higher than the 28.6 days in May, and the stock has returned to normal level.

The replenishment behavior of textile enterprises has appeared in June, which supports the cotton price in the past period. If there is no global system risk, the current price should be the bottom area of the next 7 or 8 months. But taking into account the continuing downturn in the demand for the back road and the huge end inventory in China, the cotton price rise will not be smooth and highly limited.