Resources "Money" Topic &Nbsp; Textile Industry Pressure Is Huge.

Looking back in 2011, China's textile industry was not affected by the debt crisis of Europe and the United States, and it was not easy to export. It was affected by factors such as difficulty in cost cap transformation, low demand for textile market downstream, slow stock and other factors. Even though there were technical reversion of individual varieties, the overall situation was still not optimistic. Under the external environment where the pressure continues to increase, although the main total indicators are stepping up to a new stage of development, but the market scenario is low, the growth rate of the main indicators is slowing down, the market share of the main export consumer countries has declined, and the sales volume of the domestic Department stores is slowing down.

In 2011, China's monetary policy was the primary objective of curbing inflation. The direction of regulation was "prudent" and it was "tightening". The deposit reserve rate that has been raised to more than 20% and the strict loan index control of the central bank branches to the commercial banking system directly lead to the phenomenon of "money shortage". The prevalence of private lending and the "robbery" rate of interest rate higher than 100% in informal financial activities are also related to the objective reality that the formal banking system is unable to provide loan services in severe austerity.

In the case of the central bank's strict control of liquidity, some small and medium-sized enterprises have been forced to turn to the more expensive underground financial market. The interest rate of private lending in some areas has risen to a historical high of 100% of the annual interest rate. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011, the loss of the textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 9.8%, and the growth rate of the loss amount was as high as 92.31%. In the same period, the average profit margin of the textile enterprises above the norm was 5.54%, and the profit margins and loss levels of the enterprises below the scale were even less satisfactory.

Many banks have reduced their loans to large and medium enterprises, and generally implemented more than 20% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate. For example, Jiangsu's data show that in the first three quarters of 2011, the proportion of new loans to small and micro enterprises with a single household credit below 5 million yuan was 2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the cost of financing increased by 31.4% over the same period last year.

Against this background, textile enterprises, regardless of their size, are faced with entanglements under the pressure of increasingly tight capital chain. Fluctuations in raw material prices, increased share of inventories, short supply and demand accounts, tight cash flow, increased market default risk, financing difficulties and high cost of loans have become a true portrayal of textile companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, facing the pressure of capital chain.

Some enterprises are forced to sell goods at a low price in order to fight for the market and exchange funds to solve the problem. Some enterprises even reflect that the potential of internal exploitation is near the limit, but industry sales. profit The rate is lower. After deducting the cost, the money earned is less than the interest on the loan and can only be compressed.

Financial pressure triggered by costs continued to increase in 2012.

China logistics and purchasing Federation data show that in February the main Raw material The purchase price index was 54%, a sharp rise of 4 percentage points from last month. This index was higher than the critical point in January this year, after a 3 month low of 50% in October last year, and jumped to more than the critical point in February.

The recently released plan for the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2012 has clearly stated that the storage price in 2012 is 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous year, and also set a base price for the textile enterprises in the new cotton year.

At the same time, energy and power costs, labor costs continue to rise, as well as energy saving and emission reduction pressure directly to the "money" problem.

But we must see that the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of residents' income level. policy Support and other factors will boost the domestic demand market to continue to grow steadily, and the monetary policy environment in 2012 will also show signs of relaxation, which will become an important support for the upward trend of the industry's economic indicators.

The rest is waiting for the industry to launch the opportunity.

Pressurized minefields in 2011

　　 Market "money" problem downturn in the index area

In 2011, the overall prosperity of the domestic textile market was not high, and the operating atmosphere of the whole industrial chain continued to slump, and turnover remained at a low level. As a result, the production and sale rate of textile enterprises is difficult to increase, and the backlog of inventory is becoming more and more intense. Some enterprises are forced to sell goods at low prices in order to compete for the market and exchange funds.

As a well-known textile and garment material market in Keqiao, China's Textile City Market Quotation And the trend has always been the concern of buyers and buyers of textile accessories. According to the Keqiao textile index of China, the overall prosperity index, the total market climate index and the total production index of the Keqiao market in 2011 were significantly lower than those in 2010. By December 2011, the overall market sentiment index for Keqiao was 1343.96, down 74.87 from the same period in 2010, and the overall market sentiment index was 1064.28, down 31.72 from the same period in 2010, with a total production index of 1685.68, down 102.36 from the same period in 2010. {page_break}

In addition, according to the comprehensive measurement of the tracking data of the China Textile Industry Federation, in 2011, although the entrepreneur confidence index and industry prosperity index of our textile enterprises were in the expansion section, they also showed a trend of slowing down.

Source: Keqiao textile market

　　 Export "money" problem, made in China, orders for minefields

Affected by the economic downturn, consumer confidence in the US, EU, Japan and other markets is low, which has slowed down the growth of global import demand and is more sensitive to the performance of imported products. international market The weakness of demand is more obvious.

At the same time, influenced by the comprehensive cost factors, some market orders in the US, Europe and Japan diverted to rival countries such as Southeast Asia. At present, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey and other countries are far cheaper than China's low cost advantages to encroach on the export of Chinese textile and clothing "cake". According to the relevant data, at present, the labor cost in India, Pakistan and Vietnam is only 38% of the labor cost in China, and the raw material cost accounts for only 70% of the domestic cost. Under the serious weakening of cost and price advantage, China's textile enterprises have greater pressure on capital and other aspects in order competition in the international market. Many enterprises are also forced to give up some long lists and large orders, and choose short and small products to speed up the flow of funds and reduce the pressure of export operation.

Over the years, "made in China" has a strong position in the international market. Even in the last financial turmoil in 2008, the share of textiles and clothing in the three main markets of the European Union, the United States and Japan continued to grow. However, in 2011, China's textile and clothing had dropped in the import market share of the three largest economies. This is also the first time that the share of textiles and clothing in these three markets has dropped for the first time since joining the WTO.

Source: American textiles clothing Office

According to the data released by the Department of textiles and clothing of the US Department of Commerce (OTEXA), textiles and clothing imported from China totaled 23 billion 360 million square meters and 37 billion 890 million US dollars in 2011 1~11, accounting for 46.8% and 40.2% of total imports and imports respectively, representing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points and 1 percentage points respectively in the same period last year.

According to the EU statistics, in 2011 1~10, the EU imported 55 billion 80 million dollars of textiles and clothing from China, accounting for 41.7% of its total imports, representing a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared with the previous year.

According to Japan's Ministry of industry data, in 2011, Japan imported $31 billion 590 million of textiles and clothing from China, accounting for 74.9% of its import volume, representing a 2.2 percentage point decrease compared with the previous year.

　　 Domestic sale "money" subject consumption will encounter price minefield

Although the domestic market has been the main support for the development of China's textile industry for many years, and from the data of China's consumer goods retail classification, it also shows the exuberant market of China's textile and clothing market. But in 2011, the inflationary pressure on the common people is still great.

National Bureau of statistics data show that in 2011, China's consumer prices rose by 5.4% over the same period last year. Since July 2011, due to several stringent monetary policies such as raising the deposit reserve ratio and so on, CPI has entered the downward track. The year-on-year increase has been decreasing month by month, but it has remained above 4%. The first life experience that inflation brings to us is the rising cost of living, which disrupts the rhythm of our normal consumption expenditure and suppresses people's desire for demand.

According to the key department stores monitoring data of China business data center, the sales volume of clothing sales of large retail stores in China showed only a single digit figure in 2011. It can be seen that under the pressure of high inflation, people are more sensitive to product prices and more prudent in their choice of consumption.

The overall trend of CPI in 2011

The price increase that consumers feel is not only from the cost increase of production links, but also the operating pressure of "circulation fee", "shopping mall button", shopping mall rentals, all kinds of "public relations fees" and so forth. In general, the cost of retail channel is about 30% or even more. To enter the market, clothing suppliers first pay the entry fee, the amount depends on the level and scale of shopping malls, mainly including the mall posters, promotional fees, default fees, storage fees, advertising fees and dozens of names. In addition, shopping mall buttons have a greater impact on clothing pricing. Shopping malls are related to their geographical location, passenger flow and purchasing power of passengers. They usually float between 15% and 35%.

It can be imagined that under the condition of pressure superposition, the survival of enterprises is getting worse and worse. The development of brands (especially growing brands) is getting worse and worse. It must be digested by the price of products, and the price increases step by step into the price sensitive area of consumers, which will inevitably bring about the impact on sales volume.

　　 The uneven flow of macro money leads to loan minefields.

According to the central bank report, at the end of 2011, the balance of broad money supply M2 was 85 trillion and 200 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the same period last year, and the rate of increase was 6.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. The balance of RMB loans increased by 15.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 4.1 percentage points lower than the previous year, an increase of 7 trillion and 470 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. In 2011, the scale of social financing was 12 trillion and 830 billion yuan, of which bond financing increased significantly. {page_break}

From the aggregate perspective, the overall liquidity in our real economy is fairly abundant. But a sufficient amount is not equal to a balanced structure. In fact, there are widespread uneven distribution of liquidity among different industries and different enterprise sizes. The textile industry has a low proportion in the bank financing system, and in 2011 it raised the deposit rate and interest rate many times, which made the textile industry face the dilemma of financing big and small enterprises.

Source: central bank data

In 2011, China's macroeconomic policy turned to control inflation, and the central bank continued to shrink liquidity. Following the first announcement of a 0.5 percentage point increase in the deposit reserve ratio in January 20th, the reserve requirement rate rose to a historic high in the past six months, which controlled inflation to a certain extent and increased the pressure of capital supply. The 6 time is to raise the deposit reserve ratio, a total contraction of about 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan, and bank credit funds are directly affected. In order to prevent risks, the central bank has also increased the daily average loan to loan ratio of banks.

Many banks have reduced their loans to large and medium enterprises, and generally implemented more than 20% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate. For example, Jiangsu's data show that in the first three quarters of 2011, the proportion of new loans to small and micro enterprises with a single household credit below 5 million yuan was 2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the cost of financing increased by 31.4% over the same period last year.

Under the "high pressure" of the deposit reserve ratio and the average daily loan to deposit ratio, the loanable funds of domestic commercial banks seem less and less. The unprecedented tightening of money and the strict control of loan index by commercial banks in central bank branches directly led to the phenomenon of "money shortage".

　　 Financing "money" problem cost super profit detonating profit minefield

Under the background of tight credit, the bargaining power of bank loans has improved significantly. Some banks use the floating rate, the acceptance of bills and other strong ways to give loans to enterprises, so that the financing cost of textile enterprises is significantly improved. For small and medium-sized enterprises, because of the small scale of operation and some reasons of their own operation, it is difficult to succeed in bank loans and forced to choose private financing.

It is understood that in the case of strict control of liquidity in the central bank, SMEs are forced to turn to the more expensive "underground finance" market, and the interest rate of private lending in some areas has risen to a historical high of 100% of the annual interest rate.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011, the loss of the textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 9.8%, and the growth rate of the loss amount was as high as 92.31%. Over the same period, the average profit rate of the textile enterprises above designated size was 5.54%, and the profit margin level and loss level of the enterprises below the scale were even less satisfactory.

Profits of textile enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year in 2011

Profits are not guaranteed, loan interest rates continue to rise, which makes many companies have money and dare not lend. After the latest interest rate increase, the central bank's one-year lending benchmark rate has reached 6.56%. According to a large textile company, in 2011, the bank loan interest rate no longer carried out the benchmark interest rate, but went up 30% to 50%, and the highest annual interest rate was nearly 10%. Enterprise executives feel that the potential of enterprises is near the limit, but the profit rate of industry sales is relatively low. After deducting expenses, they earn less than the interest on loans, and enterprises can only reduce the scale. Even if you can borrow money, you will not be able to afford it. What is the ability of the enterprise to expand and develop if the loan cost exceeds the financing income?

　　 Resources "money" topic many mountains directly cost minefields

Just when enterprises are unable to make money, they will go straight to the "money" problem, including labor costs, energy and power costs, energy saving and emission reduction.

During the opening year of 12th Five-Year, the improvement of people's livelihood continued to be concerned, and the increase of residents' income should outperform the growth rate of GDP. Let the people's "pocketbook" be bulged as soon as possible to become a new round of the layout of people's livelihood. According to data from the Ministry of human resources and social security, a total of 24 provinces in 2011 adjusted the minimum wage standard, an average increase of 22%. In 2011, the average monthly income of migrant workers in China exceeded the 2000 yuan mark for the first time, reaching 2049 yuan, an increase of 359 yuan over 2010 and an increase of 21.2%. The increase of workers' wages is the most direct manifestation of labor-intensive enterprises, which is the rise of labor costs. Although many textile enterprises have been actively coping with the means of expanding market, improving efficiency and strengthening technological transformation, labor intensive industry attributes the problem of labor cost. {page_break}

In 2011, the producer price index of clothing industry increased by 4.2%, while the fuel power purchase price index rose by 10.8%. The index of raw material purchase price rose by far higher than the ex factory price of industrial products, which seriously squeezed the profit margin of enterprises.

Since June 1, 2011, the price of electricity and agricultural electricity has risen by about two cents in 15 provinces and cities nationwide. In December 1st, the national development and Reform Commission announced an increase in electricity prices. The national sales price increased by an average of 3 cents per degree, and the electricity consumption of residents was temporarily raised.

China's electricity tariff adjustment progress in recent years

Although China's textile industry has made some progress in energy saving and emission reduction in recent years, with the rapid growth of the textile industry and the continuous expansion of the scale of enterprises and the stricter standards of energy conservation and emission reduction by the state and local governments, the overall situation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China's textile industry is still grim. It is a long way to go to optimize the utilization of resources and reduce environmental pollution.

　　 Industry chain "money" topic cash flow tension alert Book minefield

Under the tight capital chain pressure, inventory accounts for an increasing proportion, the supply and demand account is shortened, cash flow is tight, and market default risks increase. In the past, cloth suppliers can give enterprises a month's account. Now they are "delivering money hand in hand" and pay 30% deposit in advance more than 10 days. In 2011, the upper and lower reaches of the textile industry were short of money. Cloth suppliers must pay cash for cotton shopping, and clothing manufacturers must pay cash for cloth purchases. Tight cash flow and shortening of supply and demand accounts have become an important performance of the industry's capital chain.

　　 2012 compression difficulty

Opening PMI shows signs of greater stress

Although the central bank announced that since February 24, 2012, it has lowered the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. According to the estimated balance of RMB 80 trillion and 130 billion yuan at the end of January, the adjustment will release about 400 billion yuan of funds. It also strengthened the signal indication of loosening monetary policy. But in 2012, China's textile industry's opening data still showed signs of greater pressure.

According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in January 2012, the national PMI data was 50.5, an increase of 0.2 over the previous year, and the PMI / ring ratio of textile and garment industry decreased, with a decrease of 6.4 and 4.3 respectively. The PMI of textile industry is 36.7, which is close to the historical low of 28.1 of the financial crisis in 2009.

　　 The pressure of global economic growth still exists.

The world economic recovery is slowing down, the risk of recession in major developed economies is increasing, the growth of international trade and investment is weak, the international financial market is turbulent, and the sovereign debt crisis is ups and downs. These developments in the 2011 world economic situation will continue in 2012.

In 2012, the world will continue to recover at the "two speed", but the deep recession in Europe may make the global growth in the first half of this year drop sharply. In the process of recovery in developed countries, employment growth is weak and growth in emerging and developing economies is likely to slow down further, which will lead to new trade, investment and financial protectionism. The possibility of a "hard landing" for some important emerging economies can not be completely ruled out. Besides, geopolitical crisis and disaster risk threaten global economic growth.

According to the Standard Chartered Bank's forecast data, the global economic growth rate in 2012 was only 2.2%. Under such an environment of economic development, it is bound to be less exciting for the weary terminal consumer market, and China's textile and clothing exports will continue to be attacked by low demand and intensified competition.

IMF 2012 global economic growth forecast index

Source: IMF world economic outlook.

　 International market capital chain pressure increased

In terms of financing environment, the international market is also facing the problem of increasing pressure from the capital chain. It is understood that due to the further aggravation of the loan situation in the banking industry, the normal financing sources of European enterprises have been reduced, and the breach of the capital chain has led to a sharp rise in the number of cases of breach of contract. The rating agency's S & P estimates that the default rate of European enterprises will rise to 6.1% in 2012 from 4.8% in 2011. If the recession deepens, the default rate of enterprises may rise to 8.4%. {page_break}

Banks are tightening their loans to protect themselves. In the case of financing difficulties, banks have cut down high-risk businesses to meet new capital adequacy requirements. Banks continue to tighten their lending and are increasingly reluctant to extend loans, which may push more businesses into despair. On the one hand, it is unfavorable to promote the economic recovery in Europe, and on the other hand, it also increases the market risk of China's related foreign trade enterprises.

　　 Imported inflation pressure should not be underestimated.

In the past few years, the developed countries have injected a lot of liquidity to cope with the economic downturn. The US quantitative easing monetary policy has led to the decline of the US dollar and the overall rise in international commodity prices, which has already surpassed the peak period of over 10% in 2007. At the same time, a large number of funds were driven by speculative factors and risk aversion factors, and a large influx of commodity markets also led to the continuous rise of international commodity prices and the characteristics of high volatility.

Since the beginning of this year, the purchasing price index of Chinese enterprises has picked up significantly. It also shows that imported inflation pressure can not be ignored. According to the data of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the price index of Chinese enterprises rose by 4 percentage points in February, up to 2.9 percentage points in January, reaching 54%, the highest since October. The general rise in commodity prices is the main reason why the price index continues to rise. Since February, the Reuters CRB index, which reflects the average price change of commodities, has risen 3.5%, of which crude oil has risen by 8.6%. All these remind us that we need to be vigilant and continue to increase the risk of inflation.

　　 Cost pressures still demand "money" for enterprises.

The continued increase in cost pressures is also one of the major risks faced by enterprises in 2012. According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing data, in February, the main raw material purchase price index was 54%, a sharp rise of 4 percentage points from last month. This index was higher than the critical point in January this year, after a 3 month low of 50% in October last year, and jumped to more than the critical point in February.

Recently, the "cotton temporary storage and purchase plan 2012" has been issued. It is clear that the storage price in 2012 is 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous year. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to widen, the announcement of domestic purchasing and storage price has set the base price for the domestic cotton used by the textile enterprises in the new cotton year.

It can be seen that the domestic textile enterprises will still bear the pressure of higher raw material cost in 2012. At the same time, the cost of energy and labor costs will continue to rise, and will continue to increase the cost burden of enterprises. All cost pressures are greedy to the enterprise to "money".