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Wan Lian Securities: The Boom Of The Textile Industry In The First Quarter Will Continue Downward.

2012/2/20 17:07:00 11

Industry's core view:

Textile manufacturing sub sectors will still face multiple pressures such as weak external demand, inventory and order pfer in the first quarter, and the boom will continue downward; prices will be high, warm winter and economy will continue.

Speed up

The slowdown has slowed the growth of brand clothing sales. It is expected that the driving force for future growth will turn from price rise to volume increase.

Medium and long term continue to be optimistic about brand clothing, short-term recommendations to be cautious, change the situation, pay attention to stable growth of men's wear plate stocks, choose the opportunity to participate in the annual report quotes.

Maintain the investment rating of "synchronous big city".

Main points of investment:

Fourth quarter performance is weak, relative valuation is still high: in the fourth quarter of 2011, the textile and garment industry fell 15.71%, relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 excess return of -6.58%, clothing home textiles stronger than textile manufacturing; valuation is lower than the historical mean, but the premium rate is still high.

Exports fell sharply, textile manufacturing enterprises were in great pressure: in 2011, the overall export volume of textile and clothing showed a downward trend, the year-on-year growth rate increased by 20% compared with the previous year; in the first quarter of 2012, the external demand was weak, cotton prices fell, and inventory went down.

Order

Transfer and other factors, the export situation is grim, corporate earnings growth will decline.

Domestic sales growth continued to slow down, brand clothing performance increased from price to volume: high clothing prices, warm winter and slow economic growth have seriously affected the sales of textile and clothing.

In 2011 1-11, the textile and garment retail sales of Enterprises above designated size increased by 24% over the same period last year, down from the previous month. In November, the retail sales of clothing sales in hundreds of large retail stores increased by 10.26% over the same period last year, the lowest growth rate since the beginning of the year, and sales continued to decline.

Under the background of the price reduction of raw materials and the extrusion effect of price increase, it is expected that the growth momentum of brand clothing will be changed from price increase to volume increase in the future.

The first three quarters of the year maintained a rapid growth, and 2011 expected good throughout the year: in the first three quarters of 2011, the operating income of textile and apparel listed companies increased by 26.5% compared with the same period last year, and net profit increased by 42.3% over the same period last year.

keep

Rapid growth; announced annual performance forecasts show that the full year growth in 2011 can be expected.

Investment strategy: short term prudence.

In the first quarter, the boom of textile manufacturing industry will continue downward, underestimating the value of leading stocks is relatively good.

In the medium and long term, the investment opportunities of brand clothing will continue to be optimistic. In the short term, we should be cautious and pay attention to the men's wear stocks with stable growth performance, and the outdoor textiles and home textiles with higher valuations can be actively intervened after the adjustment is reasonable.

Risk warning

The slowdown in economic growth and the increase in product prices affect demand; raw material prices fluctuate substantially; and labor costs rise.