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Short Comment On Cotton Situation In China

2011/12/16 16:01:00 20

In recent years, Zheng cotton's fluctuation has increased, but overall it is still plain. The turnover below 100 thousand hands has become normal.

Under the guidance of the national policy, it is difficult to foresee the large fluctuation market in the short term, making the fund's interest in Zheng cotton futures not high.

As of December 14th, this year's cotton temporary storage paction

Cumulative

The turnover was 1531300 tons, of which 486180 tons were traded in the mainland and 1045120 tons in Xinjiang. Of them, 14 tons were collected and 123700 tons of cotton were exported in 2011, and the actual turnover was 46480 tons, with a turnover rate of 37.6%.

Since December 5th, when the high point of 69780 tons of storage was set up, although the reserves had declined, it remained at a high level. According to this progress, the storage capacity reached about 2 million tons this year, while the central storage cotton also raised the daily planned reserves in a timely manner, showing the determination of the market.

Country

store up

Up to now, although the downstream demand is still sluggish, the supply side has indeed improved.

Market mindset has gradually changed, and some cotton enterprises with little financial pressure have begun to reserve some cotton. Although the price of cotton is low, the quota allocation is uncertain, and the current 1% tariff quota price is also very high.

Xinjiang cotton pportation difficulties also add more profits to the market.

policy

It is also a major guarantee for large enterprises. The Limited car wagon is also given to the prefix enterprises. Many cotton enterprises have to choose to pport goods to the mainland.

In the early stage, when the purchase and storage volume was enlarged and the paction price of the spot market improved slightly, the price of Zheng cotton was once showing a strong trend, especially in the forward 1209 contracts.

The improvement of cotton fundamentals is hard to show, but the price is expected to pick up in the medium and long term.