Zheshang Securities: &Nbsp Has A Slight Autumn Meaning; There Is No Winter Chill -- Research Report On Canton Fair 2011 Autumn.

The Canton Fair was first held in 1957, and now has 110 issues.

Internet in recent years

At the beginning of spring, after the Canton Fair, our basic judgement in the research report, "no one is sorry", has been well verified by export data.

During the Canton Fair, we conducted research on about 20 exhibitors, 3 overseas buyers, and the surrounding hotels and shops.

The popularity of this exhibition can be estimated that the number of buyers is flat or slightly higher than that of the previous session.

As of 18, the first phase of the Canton Fair was attended by over 10 buyers, slightly higher than the last (Spring Fair), an increase of about 5% over last year.

After excluding the abnormal value of SARS period, this data is basically equivalent to the average growth rate of the past 20 periods, and the most heard evaluation in our survey is also "bad or bad".

In view of the fact that the exhibition is not over, we estimate that the number of purchases is flat in the last session. The situation is still significantly better than the three in the "cold winter" period from April 2008 to 2009 (7%, 8% and 14% respectively).

Orders are still stable and no signs of sharp decline.

As of 17, the Canton Fair's order turnover was about 10 billion 200 million US dollars, a 4.2% increase from the spring exchange, an increase of 14.5% over the previous autumn.

This data is weaker than the April spring fair growth rate before the high export growth in 2010, but higher than that of the April spring fair.

On the whole, the data is stable.

The European debt crisis has some impact, and European and North American market orders have slipped. But it is worth noting that orders from the Middle East, India and Vietnam have grown rapidly, with an overall growth rate of 30%.

In terms of industry, home appliances, light industry machinery and other orders are relatively active; hardware tools, electronics and other general performance.

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We have learned from the survey that under the continuous influence of rising inflation and labor costs, the downstream export products have generally risen in price; the top ones are appliances and other products, with less hardware category. The price increase has made overseas buyers generally complain about "expensive". Another problem is the fluctuation of exchange rate. Compared with the appreciation of RMB, exporters are more worried about the fluctuation of exchange rate.

Products "expensive" and exchange rate fluctuations bring the same problem, that is, buyers are more willing to observe and observe more, resulting in a relatively short account.

In the past three days, short orders accounted for 51.7% of the orders within three months, and 35.5% of the 3-6 months.

This will bring uncertainty in exports in the latter part (next year's first quarter).

Like 08 years, "export suddenly disappeared" as a small probability

With the overall survey, we feel that the driving factors of export slowdown are still in progress.

The current order can guarantee exports for the next quarter, but if the debt crisis deepens further, China's exports will regain pressure by the end of 12.

But many people worry that the order "cliff type" decline in 2008 (a month's time from 19% to -2%) and the sudden disappearance of exports should be small.

Exporters of a household electrical appliance company tell us that in their view, the biggest difference between the current and 08 years is "demand is still", but the fluctuation of the market environment and the excessive rise in prices make buyers hesitate.

They also worry that Europe and America will get worse, but for now, they need to be observed again.

Conclusion: as long as it is "government deleveraging", it will no longer trigger the deleveraging of enterprises and family departments.

Continue with the above logic: the reason why the current export environment did not appear to be deteriorating sharply in 2008 is because the financial crisis in 2008 is equivalent to that in the major economies, where the financial, business and family sectors are all deleveraging, while the government is adding leverage. The current sovereign debt crisis is equivalent to the government's efforts to leverage, while the enterprises and family departments have not fundamentally touched, and some industries are even replenishment.

Therefore, the impact of the crisis on exports is not as extensive as in 2008.

Therefore, the uncertainty of the future will mainly come from the depth of the European debt crisis.

Although there are no signs of "cold winter", we still need to observe changes in related fields at any time.