China'S Exports Will Be Weaker In The Next Few Years.
On the evening of September 15th, Li Jing, chairman of Morgan chase global market in China, said on Thursday that China's economy has slowed down by the global economic growth since the third quarter, but it can still resist external risks.
The most important strategy now is to stimulate domestic demand and personal consumption, because exports may be relatively weak in the next few years.
When it comes to the future trend of China's economy, Li Jing believes that domestic demand is
China's economy
The most important driving force for growth is dependence on exports.
But China's fixed asset investment growth is still too fast, and the growth of personal consumption remains to be improved.
She expects that China's economy will continue to pform and adjust its structure. This year's economic growth will be 8.9% and 8.5% next year.
For the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, Li Jing believes that the European bank's rating is also likely to be downgraded.
The Asia Pacific economy accounts for 25% of the global economy, and China's economy accounts for 8% of the global economy. The contribution of China and emerging markets to the global economy can not fully compensate for the drag of the European and American economies.
But the stability of the European economy and the euro is closely related to China's economy, because the euro zone is China's largest export destination, accounting for 22%.
Therefore, China's purchase of European debt is also in its own interest.
Faced with this economic downturn, Lee pointed out that the most lack of confidence in the global stock market.
"The heavily indebted euro zone needs to reduce expenditure and stabilize the government's finances. The United States needs to create more job opportunities. In the context of global economic instability, China needs to increase domestic demand, improve social security and reduce people's worries."
When it comes to China's economic response, Li Jing stresses that the most important strategy now is to stimulate.
Domestic market demand
And personal consumption.
Because of external risks, exports may be relatively weak in the next few years.
For commodities, Li Jing is more optimistic about energy, including oil and coal.
The shortage of metals, including copper, is also promising in the medium and long term, but the volatility is relatively large in the short term, because metals are most sensitive to fluctuations in the economy, and 14.32,0.05,0.35% is also very optimistic in the medium and long term, because the food structure of the middle class in the emerging market is turning to higher quality white matter, and the demand for feed, soybeans and corn will increase.
Referring to the stock market, Li Jing said that the most promising sector is the industry with pricing power, the first is the lack of resources in China, the second is
Luxury goods
。
Also optimistic about the growth of high service industries, health care, consumption and the Internet.
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