Australian Cotton Turnover Amplification&Nbsp; Limited Impact Of Floods In Pakistan

On September 6, the Indian S-6 of some domestic traders in the bonded zones of major ports such as Qingdao, Shanghai and Zhangjiagang was 20500 yuan/ton, the M-grade American cotton was 21000 yuan/ton, and the M-grade cotton in Benin, West Africa was 20500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price could yield about 200 yuan/ton. However, several foreign businessmen believed that the quotation of domestic traders was on the high side, of which the quotation of Australian cotton was at least 500 yuan/ton.

Singapore Cotton merchant It was said that in recent days, the spot and forward trading volume of Australian cotton of several large foreign businessmen was very large. The spot goods in the port bonded area were 300 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic traders, and the contracted volume of Australian cotton of the foreign businessmen reached 5000 tons on the fifth day alone, which caused the market to speculate that the cotton price was near the bottom.

It is reported that since the first ten days of September, the floods in Pakistan have intensified, and a certain amount of cotton fields have been destroyed by floods. Some cotton merchants estimate that the loss may exceed 1 million bales (less than 200000 tons). Therefore, on September 6, Pakistan's domestic cotton not only stopped falling and rising, but also the price of cotton yarn increased by 50 dollars/ton, causing panic among some domestic cotton yarn importers. However, most of the foreign businessmen said that the actual loss was only 100000 to 200000 tons, and the southern Pakistan had suffered floods in June and July this year, which had a great impact on the lint output and grade. The recent floods had little impact on the supply and demand side, while the cotton growth and weather conditions in neighboring India were relatively good, and the harvest was gradually becoming a certainty, which could completely make up for the domestic situation in Pakistan lint Production reduction and losses.

In addition, since the middle of August, although American cotton has been successively picked and listed in some cotton regions in the southern United States, due to the very low lint grade and short fiber length, ICE warehouse receipts cannot be generated, and only less than 40% of cotton can meet the purchase conditions of the demander, so in September, most international cotton merchants vigorously promote Indian cotton and Australian cotton in the far month, Only two or three foreign businessmen are still mainly American cotton, and foreign businessmen are generally worried about the difficulty of delivery or exchange of American cotton in the later period.

Some cotton merchants said that bulk commodities and ICE Futures There is still room for one or two rounds of decline, and because Zheng Mian Futures has a large number of hedging orders at 21000-22000 yuan, the firm offer pressure will appear after November and December, and the contract in January may fall below 19800 yuan/ton. Therefore, Waimian also has some room for decline. Customers need not be eager to import now, but can wait for opportunities. However, in the short term, we should also pay attention to the employment policy of the US government and the introduction of QE3 in the midst of a recession. Cotton importing enterprises should observe more and act less.