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Cotton Is Difficult To Trend Up

2011/8/30 17:01:00 46

Last week, Zheng cotton rebounded from the low level of the 30 day moving average.

But then the rally failed and the market showed weakness.

Judging from the current situation, the possibility of raising the price is not true.

For the trend of Zheng cotton's later stage, I believe that although the reserve price of the state will provide support for the cotton market, Zheng cotton still does not have the conditions for a big rebound.

First,

New cotton

Promising high yield

In terms of supply, domestic cotton will soon be listed on a large scale.

China cotton monitoring report showed that by the middle of August, the national cotton seedling situation was better than nearly 15% in the same period last year, better than nearly 10% in the year.

Judging from the current situation, although Hebei, Shandong and other parts

Cotton region

It is affected by rainy weather, but it is understood that the impact on output is rather limited.

Two, consumer weakness has not improved.

From the perspective of demand, on the one hand,

Order

The decline is worrying.

The US cotton export weekly report showed that 140 thousand tons of export orders were canceled last week, reflecting the weak global demand.

In addition, the industry also estimated that the clothing orders in the fall this year may be reduced by 10% - 20% over the same period.

On the other hand, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is high, and there is no support for massive replenishment.

Although the recent textile enterprises have seen a slight improvement in the purchase of cotton, the inventory of finished products still remains at a high level.

By the end of 7, the average yarn and grey fabric inventory of the national textile enterprises totaled 45.54 days, up nearly 80% from the same period last year, and the demand for replenishment was not optimistic.

Before the downturn in demand did not improve, Zheng cotton still did not have a substantially higher base.

Three, the price difference structure is unfavorable for Zheng cotton to go higher.

The price spread structure of Zheng cotton also limited the space of the price rise to a certain extent.

Judging from the current price difference, Zheng cotton CF1109 contract is about to be delivered, but now it has risen more than 1000 yuan / ton, and the pressure of late selling period will gradually increase.

In the month of delivery, if the current price differential can not be narrowed, it is not possible to exclude the possibility that the CF1109 contract will fall again to the low point.

There will be some pressure on the main contract of Zheng cotton.

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From a technical point of view, Zheng cotton CF1205 contract Week K line on the 10 week average line failure, closed on the 30 day moving average, or short-term adjustment signal.

In addition, the main position also shows that after the rebound, the main selling side of the empty side is positive.

Comprehensive analysis, I believe that the late Zheng cotton price is difficult to rise trend.

Taking into account the support of the reserve price of the lower countries, investors may choose to intervene more in the vicinity of the callback to the reserve price.