Four Sides Entangled &Nbsp; A Share Or 2600 Point Protracted War.

When

As far as economic fundamentals are concerned, the fermentation of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States will undoubtedly drag the recovery of the European and American economies, thereby increasing the export pressure of China in the second half of the year.

At the policy level, despite the resumption of the three year central bank's vote, the "expectation" is expected to continue to weaken. However, the voice of raising interest rates has been quietly heating up, and it is hard to see signs of relaxation in short-term policy.

At the level of capital, although the most tense stage of funds has passed, it is hard to see a relaxed situation in the short term.

From a technical point of view, the index back to the "origin" before the crash, that is, the 2600 point platform, has actually completed the initial task of the rebound.

Next, the index must break through, to some extent, it is necessary to match the volume, but the shrinking volume is difficult to stimulate the market.

Since the beginning of this year, despite several increases in interest rates and "raising standards", the domestic economy has always maintained a good momentum.

The macroeconomic data released in July once again gave the market a satisfactory answer.

In July, the added value of above scale industries increased by 14%, a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. In July, the monthly scale of exports refreshed the historical record of $161 billion 970 million which had just been set up in June, a larger increase of 20.4% compared with the same period last year. The consumption of high expectations remained stable. In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 17.9%, but the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of last month.

Up to now, the domestic economy is still running smoothly.

However, behind the prosperity of the surface, some economic worries are gradually emerging.

The biggest worry at present is nothing more than

In addition to the export of the "hidden bomb", the three quarter of the beginning of the inventory cycle and the release of the cumulative effect of tightening policy will, to varying degrees, constitute a certain pressure on the downward trend of the economy.

In July, the Chinese manufacturing procurement manager index was 50.7 in the month of the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, approaching the demarcation line of 50%, and the ring fell by 0.2 percentage points.

Recently, the Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that PMI may fall by 50 in August.

On the whole, with the high price of raw materials and the high cost of capital caused by continuous tightening, the production intention of enterprises is generally weak, and the inventory cycle is still continuing. In the future, the possibility of deepening the inventory will not be removed, which will certainly exacerbate the risk of economic downlink.

Increase interest to be observed tightening is difficult to "end"

Earlier this month, when the CPI released by the National Bureau of statistics once again refreshed the peak of the current round of inflation in July, the market speculated that interest rate boots would fall.

However, perhaps the sudden fermentation of the debt crisis in Europe and America objectively disrupted the regulatory pace of the regulatory authorities.

When the market temporarily reached a consensus that the interest rate would not rise in August, the unexpected increase in the issuance rate of one-year central bank votes would again raise interest rates.

Let's not talk about whether the interest rate signal on the uplink of the central bank's interest rate is credible.

As we all know, this year, the central bank has resorted to raising interest rates for several times, aiming to lower inflation.

To some extent, CPI hit a new round of inflation in July, but instead, it gave the market and management a reassurance.

After all, in the early August, when international commodity prices plummeted and domestic agricultural prices fell slightly, the probability of CPI continuing to refresh new heights in August was very small. In July, CPI is likely to be the peak of the current round of inflation.

Since July

It is worth noting that the entry of policy into the observation period does not mean the end of tightening policy.

Although inflation is down in the second half of the year, the rate of decline may be smaller. In the future, inflation will not be ruled out.

Against this background, tightening policies will certainly not relax.

Tight funds, A shares fear "lack of money"

Since July, once the capital interest rate of runaway horse has finally dropped sharply, the capital side has also passed the most tense moment.

As of the 17 of this month, SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR week, SHIBOR two weeks, SHIBOR January and SHIBOR March interest rates were closed at 2.9992%, 3.2167%, 3.2736%, 4.8861% and 5.4443% respectively.

Among them, the short-term interest rate varieties have indeed dropped substantially over the previous 9% highs, but on the whole, after the initial downturn, the current short end interest rate varieties have been maintained at a relatively high level in the year.

And this shows that the three quarter of the funds face difficult to expect a relaxed situation, may be only from tight pition to a neutral state gradually.

Capital interest rate hovered at a relatively high level, indicating that liquidity is still in a tight state, and the market is still "short of money".

In fact, the operation of the central bank in the open market has further confirmed that the current capital side is still in a relatively tight state.

As of last week, the central bank has been making net investment in the open market for four weeks to ease the tight financial situation.

This week and for some time, due to the small amount of funds due, it is expected that the central bank will continue to make a slight net investment trend, which is just a side note that the short-term market is still "short of money".

However, it is worth noting that the news that RQFII is expected to invest in the domestic stock market will, to some extent, make some positive contributions to the market funds.

However, due to the limited size of overseas RMB, and the investment channel is not limited to the A share market, it is expected that its impact on the capital market and the A share market will be relatively limited.

Quantity can still shrink and market returns to "origin".

The weakening of overseas factors has made A shares go back to the "2600 point" of the market, but the turnover has been shrinking, but the 2600 point battle has to be deadlocked.

Theoretically, the "lost territory" constituted by external shocks has been fully recovered.

That is to say, the initial task of A share's overturn and rebound has been announced.

Judging from the characteristics of the current market, the strong stocks such as the concept of big consumption in the early stage are all callbacks; and according to historical experience, the majority of the strong stocks are the end of a fall.

Whether this strong stock will fall or not is a directive for the end of the market, or the opening of a new round of market downturn.

Judging from the four internal factors of the market, the key factors affecting the operation of the market may lie in the changes of the economy and policy.

At present, the risk of economic downturn still exists, and the resulting worries may escalate.

In fact, once the future economic data show that the economic downside risks exceed expectations, the probability that the market will bottom down again will be greater.

However, for the time being, this risk is still under observation, which may inhibit the upward trend of the market, but it will not necessarily push the market to choose bottom down immediately.

At the policy level, the short term should still be in the observation period, and the regulatory authorities will not rush out to raise interest margins.

Against this background, the current policy situation will not produce direct downward pressure on the market.

On the whole, the market is more likely to fall into 2600 protracted wars.