Zheng Cotton'S Low Opening Low Plate &Nbsp Near The Limit.

In March 28th, Zheng cotton went down low and was close to the limit.

At the close, Zheng Mian

First, at present

However, excluding cotton import tariffs can not significantly affect the supply and demand of cotton market in China.

One is that the quantity of cotton that can be imported domestically is limited.

Although the market believes that the domestic cotton static gap will reach more than 4 million tons in 2010, and the amount of cotton that can actually be imported is very limited. The main cotton exporters are expected to be around 2 million 800 thousand tons.

According to the current progress in the export of cotton exports, the average quantity of cotton imports is estimated to be around 220 thousand tons in the next 5 months.

Cotton imports will not increase because of lower costs.

Second, there is a clear upside down trend between domestic and foreign cotton prices.

The current quotation of cotton is nearly 8000 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic cotton.

Although the price of cotton continues to hit a new high, the actual market turnover is very limited. The price of imported cotton in China is only slightly higher than the price of national cotton or basically the same as that of the national cotton.

Whether traders or textile enterprises, the current external market wait-and-see mentality is relatively strong.

Only by suppressing the expected increase in cotton prices and squeezing out the financial bubbles of foreign cotton quotations, can the cotton price difference between inside and outside come back to a reasonable range.

Secondly, the export tax rebate rate of textile and garment has been reduced by 5 percentage points.

The reasonableness of this market rumor is that in recent years, economists and scholars have suggested reforming the export tax rebate system. In order to solve the problem of industrial upgrading, it is not possible to maintain the export tax rebate with low added value and high energy consumption products on the grounds of employment.

In addition, the fear of the reduction of export tax rebate rate is that a large number of enterprises in the textile and garment industry actually rely on export tax rebates or even high export prices to defraudate taxes in a low profit or even no profit situation.

The export rebate rate of textile and clothing has dropped by 5 points, which will obviously deteriorate the living environment of textile and garment enterprises, and will have a fundamental negative impact on the fundamentals of cotton market.

However, the timing and magnitude of the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate need to be discussed.

In the 5 years of 2006-2011 years, the country has lowered the export rebate rate of textile and garment for 2 times and the export rebate rate of textile and clothing and bags and shoes and hats for seven times.

In September 15, 2006 and July 1, 2007, the export rebate rates of textile, clothing and viscose fiber products were cut down respectively, aiming at reducing the surplus, adjusting the structure and limiting the export of "two high and one capital" products.

In August 1, 2008, less than 1 years in June 1st -2009, and in order to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis, steady export and promote employment, small and high frequency adjustment of textile and garment export tax rebate rate.

In the face of gradual changes in cotton market fundamentals, whether the policy of obviously overcoming the market will cause the effect of "overcorrection" is questionable, and directly down 5 points. It does not give room for policy adjustment and observation, nor is it conducive to stabilizing cotton prices. It may increase the volatility of cotton prices and affect cotton growers' enthusiasm for cotton planting. In the long run, it is not conducive to stable cotton market.

In the long run, reducing the export tax rebate policy for textile and garment is inevitable, but the timing and adjustment should be cautious.