Brief Description Of Viscose Staple "Ice And Fire"

Over the past month, viscose staple has gone through the "ice and fire day". What happened to the market?

First, the upper and lower pressures.

Because of the drop in cotton prices, the cottonseed market also slipped, the price fell 5-7 per month from the same month last month, and the price of cotton lint has also dropped slightly. The market has been sluggish and the short staple has appeared. The mainstream of the filament pulp is now quoted in the mainstream market of two velvet to 14000 yuan / ton, and the price of short silk pulp has dropped to 13000 yuan / ton. The market of cotton fleece has been depressed, the price adjustment has been relatively large, and the price has been adjusted in some regions.

The price of cotton pulp has dropped to 21000-22000 yuan / ton, but the market is still in low spirits, and wood pulp has dropped to 2200 US dollars / ton.

From the production cost of pulp, cotton lint market price is 13000 yuan / ton, plus 30% loss, and 4000 yuan / ton processing fee, cotton pulp cost price to 20900 yuan / ton, there is still a certain profit margin.

The cotton price cut also led to the follow of the short pile, the market bearish mentality is strong, and the downstream viscose manufacturers also temporarily wait and see stop, the pulp price is difficult to pick up.

At present, domestic viscose staple fiber uses half of wood pulp and half.

In addition, from the human cotton yarn market orders, the market turnover is relatively low, and the average daily turnover is significantly reduced.

In order to tighten up the shipment and free up the stock, people's cotton yarn enterprises have been selling their prices in a bid. Among them, the Shandong Dai Yin 10S cotton spinning knitted yarn belt ticket is sent to Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces for the price of 33000 yuan / ton, and the 30S rayon spinning yarn is quoted at 34000 yuan / ton, and the price of the 60S cotton spinning machine yarn is 48500 yuan / ton.

Jilin chemical fiber 30S ring spun rayon knitted ribbon ticket is priced at 35500 yuan / ton, and 30S ring spun rayon knitted ribbon ticket is priced at 38000 yuan / ton.

In terms of cost, viscose staple fiber costs 28000 yuan / ton, plus 2% loss and processing cost of 4500 yuan, and the cost of 30S cotton knitted yarn is 33000 yuan / ton.

Two, viscose day down 4000 yuan, market mentality is not uniform.

From November 11th onwards, the cotton slump began, and the viscose staple with cotton "started to retreat" also began to wake up. Although the price continued to be strong, the market shipments were hard to pick up, and the downstream mills were in a mood of resistance, and traders began to bulk up.

A viscose manufacturer salesman complained to me that this is a tough winter in viscose industry for thousands of years.

Once, I thought that the alliance of viscose enterprises was still strong. After all, from November 11th to November 30th, the manufacturers' public quotations were still maintained, of which 1.5D quoted 31000 yuan, and 1.2D remained steady at 31200 yuan / ton.

And traders are relatively stable, 1.5D offer at 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

At that time, the market also agreed that viscose staple fiber can stay in the position of 28000 yuan / ton, after all, there were few viscose in the market below 28000 yuan / ton at that time.

However, in December 1st, a blow completely shattered the confidence of the cotton mill. The technology of 1.5D and Li Yang first took the price of 1.5D to 27000 yuan.

Traders also hasten to add insult to injury. The price of 24000 yuan / ton has already appeared in the market.

At present, low price viscose has been widely deployed in the market. Although the enquiry list has been appearing since the beginning of this week, the market is also on the decline.

Three. High inventory hinders the growth of viscose staple fiber {page_break}

The weakening of viscose also slowed down the shipment of the market.

At present, the viscose stock of each manufacturer has 15-20 days, and there are 10 days' inventory.

In addition, December is the traditional textile off-season, the market boom is not high, viscose staple fiber purchasing enthusiasm is also difficult to improve, and the market bearish mood is serious, many manufacturers haven't shipped for many days.

In addition, this year's cotton yarn enterprises are smiling, mainly due to the accumulation of a large number of viscose stocks.

It is reported that at present, the stock of the cotton mill is generally about a month or so, and there are also a few months. The weakness of the yarn market has also delayed the replenishment of viscose staple fiber. It is estimated that the demand for replenishment of the downstream cotton mill will not appear until 10 this month. There will be a large number of small bills appearing in the market, and the viscose enterprises will not exclude low price measures in order to attract customers. -15

Of course, the emerging market of low price viscose will also hamper the shipment of other manufacturers.

Four, more new orders, increased market supply.

About 600 thousand tons of viscose production capacity has been added, and the new production capacity in 2011 will continue. For example, Xiangsheng, Jiangsu, will have a 100 thousand ton project in January, and a 100 thousand ton project in Shandong will be put into operation in 3-4 next year. Plans for a 50 thousand ton short line project will be put into operation in March next year in Tangshan, and many new factories will be launched next year, including high-density silver hawk, Jiangxi Sai Deli, Xinjiang richda, Jiangxi Longda and so on. The domestic viscose staple fiber industry's capacity will rapidly expand about 800 thousand tons. The increase in capacity will lead to a sharp increase in the supply of viscose staple fiber on the market, which will affect the speed of shipment of viscose enterprises and increase the stock of enterprises, resulting in a further decline in the price of viscose staple fiber. 2010

At present, viscose staple fiber has not yet carried out substantial price reduction under the constraint of cost. However, the low profit in downstream market and the retaliatory fall also add to the haze of viscose staple fiber, and the factors of the off-season market and the breeding of market bearish sentiment have seriously dampened the confidence of short fiber enterprises, which is expected to fall to 25000 yuan at the end of this month.

As the old saying goes, "where to go and where to go", viscose staple should return to his rational position.