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Cotton Speculation, The Government Will Move.

2010/11/18 16:00:00 36

Rising prices, especially agriculture

product

The rapid rise of food prices has reached the level of government intervention.

Inflation has become the focus of attention in the field of macroeconomic regulation since the growth of China's consumer price index reached a new high of 4.4% in October.

It is understood that the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and so on this week is brewing price control measures.

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, said the NDRC will take measures to control price increases within the range of ordinary consumers.

In fact, the market has given a strong response.

adjustment

Signal.

In November 15th, the domestic futures market continued on Friday's declining trend. In addition to the decline and stop of plastic varieties of big merchants, the decline of many varieties such as Shanghai zinc, Shanghai gum, Zhengshang PTA and sugar were more than 6%.

A futures source said that not only the price has plummeted, but the holdings of various varieties are also dropping rapidly, and funds are being pulled out of the futures market crazily.

In November 16th, the national cotton trading market made 59100 tons of electronic cotton matchmaking trading, a decrease of 8580 tons compared with the previous trading day, a reduction of 18780 tons of orders and an aggregate order of 90880 tons.

November 15th ICE cotton plate strong oscillation, the final closing near weak far strong, the recent contract settlement price fell below 140 in December.

Cents / pound

To 138.75 cents / pound, down 143 points, the main contract in March was 134.2 cents / pound, up 2 points, in May 2011, July and October, the contract fell at different ranges, and December 2011 and after the contract was fully closed up; on the same day, the volume contracted and the order quantity continued to decrease substantially.

There is no smoke without fire.

In November 16th, a large textile group in Shandong lowered the purchase price of lint cotton by 2700 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of lint cotton of Hubei, a large international cotton trader, was also reduced by 3000 yuan / ton.

Some large cotton traders in China have stopped collecting lint and turned to wait and see.

There is no market for seed cotton purchase in some parts of China.

In the face of Cotton Traders' active door-to-door sales, many cotton enterprises are not in the mood. The cotton companies that need to buy have also lowered prices and compressed quantities. Cotton prices in some areas have been greatly reduced.

In the early days, the heat of Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton decreased significantly, and many textile enterprises implemented the strategy of postpone the purchase of raw materials and speed up the sale of yarn.

The industry believes that tightening of macroeconomic policy will force cotton prices to make deep adjustments.

Some experts have analyzed the fear of future regulatory policies and high price risks.

Judging from the continuous, rapid and substantial adjustment, the speculation and hoarding components of the strong wave really occupy a large proportion. If the government comes up with measures to control price rises, it will be a strong deterrent to the accumulation of commodities in the spot, and cotton prices are expected to continue to decline.

As far as market rule is concerned, the basic factors that constitute the current cotton spot market have not changed much, and there is a great possibility of rebound in the process of sharp callbacks.

In addition, this week the India government reconsidered India's cotton export policy. Once the policy is implemented or will provide some guidelines for the short-term cotton price trend, we should pay close attention to it.