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Economic Operation Analysis Of Cotton Spinning Industry In The First Half Of 2010

2010/8/5 11:27:00 39

According to the National Bureau of statistics data and customs data, in 2010 1~5 months, China's cotton textile industry gauze

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With steady growth and gradual recovery of exports, the proportion of investment in the central and western regions has gradually increased, and industrial pfer has achieved initial success and the various benefit indicators have also been improved.

However, there are still large uncertainties in the positive factors of pulling the indicators to good. Therefore, the economic trend in the second half of this year is still uncertain, and the whole industry is in a critical period of pition to a stable growth.

China in the first half of 2010

Cotton textile industry gauze

The data of production, export, and the investment, employment and efficiency of the whole industry are all good. To a certain extent, it reflects the recovery of the industry.

There is still room for market growth in gauze production.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2010 1~5, the cumulative yarn production of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 10 million 213 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 17.41% over the same period last year, and the total output of cloth was 23 billion 888 million meters, an increase of 17.38% over the same period last year.

The growth rate of gauze production has slowed down compared with the growth rate of 1~2 year-on-year growth this year.

Production in 2010 1~5 was relatively stable, and the output per month was not very different. Compared with the same period last year, it has maintained a relatively stable growth rate, especially cloth production has been gradually recovered from the negative growth in the same period last year to the current positive growth, and the growth rate reached two digits.

In the first three provinces of 1~5 months, the total output of yarn was larger than that of Shandong, Jiangsu and Henan. The yarn growth rate of Shandong and Jiangsu was lower than that of the national average, but the growth contribution rate remained the top two.

From the year-on-year growth rate, Henan, 1~5, Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, which ranked the top six of the total yarn production, grew faster than the national average.

According to information from enterprises, the production capacity of two provinces in Henan and Hebei has declined, and the yarn production needs to be further confirmed.

The first three provinces that accumulated more output in 1~5 months were Zhejiang, Shandong and Jiangsu. The growth rate was faster than that of Hebei, Hubei and Henan. Their year-on-year growth rates exceeded the average level, and the total contribution rate of cloth production increased by 20.3% in three provinces.

In 1~5 months, the output of woven garments in China increased by 20.36% over the same period last year, which is nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of shuttle weaving. It also shows that there is still room for the demand for cloth production in the end product market.

According to our customs statistics, in 2010 1~5, China imported 354 thousand and 700 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 38.18% over the same period last year, and net import volume of 240 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 41.9% over the same period last year.

Whether actual imports, net imports or year-on-year growth rates have reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years.

This indicates that the demand for yarn in the domestic market is relatively strong. However, due to the difference between domestic cotton market price factors and cotton quality, the domestic market demand for cotton yarn needs to be satisfied through import supplement.

Exit

Relatively stable after the market is difficult to predict

In 2010 1~5, China's cotton textile and cotton clothing exports totaled $27 billion 617 million, an increase of 16.49% over the previous year, of which cotton textile exports totaled 8 billion 452 million US dollars, an increase of 21.93% over the same period last year, and cotton clothing exports totaled 19 billion 164 million US dollars, up 14.24% over the same period last year.

From the chart below, we can see that since the Spring Festival of 2010, the export volume of cotton textiles and cotton garments has gradually increased compared with the same period in 2009.

On the whole, it has basically recovered to the same period before the 2008 crisis, and price factors played a supporting role.

The contribution rate of cotton textile exports reached 38.88%, compared with the first quarter, there was a marked improvement.

Export situation of China's cotton textiles and clothing in 2010 1~5

From the export situation of five main trade markets of cotton textiles and clothing in China, we can see that compared with the same period last year, the two markets in the United States and ASEAN grew faster, and the Hongkong market in China was more stable, while the Japanese market continued to slide.

At present, although China's export volume to the EU is still at the top of the list, but the overall economic impact of Europe, China's exports to Europe in March and April, especially the larger proportion of clothing, showed a significant downward trend compared with the same period last year.

Affected by this, coupled with the impact of RMB appreciation expectations and other factors, most enterprises are not optimistic about the growth of export in the second half of the year.

According to customs statistics, in 2010 1~5 months, China's cotton yarn exports totaled 239 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 18.63% over the same period, but still lower than the 6.5% level in 2008. The total export volume of cotton fabrics was 2 billion 992 million meters, up 24.49% over the same period last year, higher than the 9.9% level in the same period in 2008.

It can be seen that although the demand market of not all economies and countries has been improving, the overall demand of foreign markets is quite obvious, driven by the two big markets of ASEAN and the United States.

From the perspective of export varieties, combed yarn accounts for 82% of cotton yarn export, and its export contribution rate is more than 99%.

In the export of cotton fabrics, the export volume and export volume of single moon looms and denim in May 2010 declined slightly. The grey fabric still kept growing, and the export contribution rate of pure cotton fabric reached 166.16%, and the blended grey fabric had a negative growth.

The above data show that the export structure of cotton textiles has basically recovered and remained stable.

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Export situation of cotton fabrics in China in 1~5 month 2010

From the perspective of influencing factors, the gradual recovery of the global economy is the main factor driving China's export growth.

However, judging from the new round of European sovereign debt crisis and a series of weaker economic data released recently by the United States and the current development environment in China, it is difficult to predict whether cotton textile exports will continue to grow in the second half of the year.

Investment continues to grow and industrial pfer is more effective.

In 2010 1~5, China's cotton and chemical fiber textile processing industry (hereinafter referred to as the cotton textile industry) actually invested 27 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 11.14% over the same period last year, and 753 new projects, which is basically the same as last year.

From the sub regional perspective, the total investment in the eastern part of the 1~5 month in 2010 accounted for 51.1% of the total in the country, representing a decrease of 9 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the central region accounted for 38.5%, representing an increase of 8.5 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the western region accounted for 10.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared with the first quarter.

Judging from the changing situation, the actual investment in the eastern part of the 1~5 month in 2010 decreased by 4.4%, and the central and western regions increased by 27.8% and 62.4% respectively.

From the point of view of provincial distribution, the first three provinces that actually completed more investment in China's cotton textile industry in 1~5 months were Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces, which were 4 billion 740 million yuan, 4 billion 100 million yuan and 3 billion 710 million yuan respectively. The first three provinces and cities that grew faster than before were Gansu, Chongqing and Hubei provinces, all of them belong to the central or western regions. Because of the low base, especially in Gansu Province, the investment last year was only 11 million 610 thousand yuan, so its growth rate was 906.1% over the same period last year, and the two provinces increased by 96% and 90.8% respectively.

The two provinces in Jiangsu and Hebei were negative year-on-year, because the investment level was higher in the same period last year, especially in Hebei last year, 1~5 actually completed investment in the month of 4 billion 200 million yuan, compared with 2 billion 600 million yuan in the same period this year.

1~5 cotton textile industry in 2008~2010 calendar year

The actual proportion of investment in various regions (unit:%)

Benefit indicators improve overall level of operation

In 2010 1~5, there were 11773 Enterprises above Designated Size in the cotton textile industry in China. The number of enterprises increased by 49 compared with that of the same period last year, representing an increase of about 3% compared with the same period last year. The number of deficit making enterprises was 1459, representing a decrease of 24.4% compared with the same period last year. The loss side accounted for 12.39%, which was 3.5 percentage points lower than that of the 1~2 month this year, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In 2010,

In 1~5 months, the average number of employees in the above scale enterprises of cotton textile industry in China was 2 million 486 thousand and 800, an increase of 37 thousand from 1~2 months this year, and basically recovered to the same period in 2009.

This shows that the current booming production and marketing situation has stimulated the growth of the number of employees. Besides, the improvement of wages is also one of the supporting factors for all employees to recover.

In 2010 1~5, the total labor productivity of our cotton textile industry (calculated by gross industrial output) increased by 27.7% over the same period last year.

In 1~5 months, the value of export delivery of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's cotton textile industry was 36 billion 40 million yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year, nearly the same level in the same period in 2008. The three indexes of main business income, total profit and main business profits reached the highest level in the past five years.

The main business revenue was 447 billion 130 million yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period, and the total profit was 20 billion 660 million yuan, an increase of 75% over the same period last year.

In 1~5 months, the profit margin of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's cotton textile industry was 4.62%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the textile industry, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than the 1~2 profit margin, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

From the chart below, we can see that since May 2007, the profit margin of cotton textile industry has formed a "V word" rising process, which is more consistent with the overall economic situation of our country.

The main factors for the increase of profit margin include downstream market demand and the pull demand from the market confidence recovery. In addition, the price rise of cotton raw material market to the yarn Market in the first half of this year is faster than that in previous years. The correct judgement of the price decision of the cotton producers in the market also helped the profit margins set a new high.

Profit margin of cotton textile industry in 2006~2010 (unit:%)

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The price of raw cotton has risen sharply, and the pace of product growth has stabilized rapidly.

Raw material Market: the domestic cotton output in this year is 7 million tons, and the quota is about 3 million 600 thousand tons. It is estimated that 11 million tons of cotton will be used in textile enterprises in 2009/2010, which is basically consistent with the cotton consumption predicted by our Association last year.

The main features of this year's cotton market are:

(1) at the beginning of January, the 329 grade cotton was 15055 yuan / ton, the raw material stock of the enterprise was relatively high, the market turnover was slow, and the price was hovering over the same period in 2009.

The market changed significantly from March, and the price reached 16355 yuan / ton at the end of March.

In April, business inventories increased, procurement slowed down and prices rose steadily.

5 in the middle of the month, although the state increased the quota of 800 thousand tons of imported cotton, the situation of tighter overall market resources was aggravated by the India cotton embargo policy, and the cotton price rose again to 17635 yuan / ton.

In June, the pport speed of Xinjiang cotton was accelerated and its growth rate slowed down.

From the end of June to the beginning of July, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy was promulgated, and 800 thousand tons of quotas (400 thousand of them were issued) were issued, and 600 thousand tons of reserve plan was formulated, which did not alleviate the rising trend of cotton prices. At the beginning of July, the price reached 18500 yuan / ton.

(2) the overall trend of international cotton is also showing an upward trend.

Since the mark of 80 cents / pound in late February, it has never fallen below this price. By June, it has risen to 95.7 cents / pound, equivalent to 16640 yuan / ton (1% customs duty), 17122 yuan / ton (sliding tax), which has been lower than domestic cotton price 1360 yuan and 880 yuan respectively.

The gauze Market: after the smooth operation of 1~2 at the beginning of the year, the price of yarn rose with the increase of raw materials.

In April, with the smooth operation of cotton raw materials, the market was tight in late May and mid June, and the price rose again.

According to the enterprise, inventory fell in the first half of last year, and orders were very abundant, especially cotton yarn.

In late June, the market stabilized again, the demand for replenishment decreased, and the atmosphere of the paction weakened.

In mid July, the market reversed, the number of enterprises reduced, and the price also showed a certain margin in the paction.

Grey cloth remained stable at a price level for two months in 1~2 months. There was no change. Suddenly, there was a jump growth in early March, and then continued to grow steadily.

Entering in April, it stabilized at a price level. In late May, demand driven and upstream yarn pushed up sharply, and cotton textile enterprises which had abundant raw materials or more stock of grey fabrics were making more profits. However, the single weaving factories with short sales and short industrial chains had to bear the rising pressure of raw material costs and relatively little profit.

In the first half of the year, the order of the yarn dyed fabric is also very sufficient. But because of the continuous high price of yarn and the rising price of downstream fabrics, the profits of the yarn dyed enterprises may be affected to a certain extent.

The price of grey cloth has a lag period with the rising speed, but the downward trend is closely following the pace of cotton and yarn.

Three big market price increase contrast: since October 2009, the domestic cotton, yarn and grey cloth market price has been showing a clear upward trend, as of July 22nd, cotton, yarn, grey cloth price increase respectively reached 37%, 44% and 31%.

The overall rally is roughly divided into four stages: Stage 1, from October 2009 to 2010, before the Spring Festival, the cotton price increase is always higher than the yarn price increase; stage two, after the Spring Festival to the beginning of April, the cumulative price of yarn gradually rises more than cotton prices; stage three, April, cotton prices are still rising slightly, yarn prices are relatively stable; stage four, "May 1" to July July cotton and yarn cumulative increase continues to increase.

The latest price situation: cotton and yarn prices have turned downward since July 13th.

The market price trend of grey fabric is similar to cotton price trend in the following chart, and yarn prices are rising faster.

It can be seen that the market price of cotton and yarns depends on the adjustment of market supply and demand and the psychological anticipation of both sides, forming a pattern of mutual pursuit and mutual promotion. The latter trend will depend on many factors, including the policy control of relevant departments of the state.

Monthly increase in cotton, yarn and grey fabric prices (unit:%)

Industry's pition to stable growth in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2010, China's cotton textile industry has made a good start under the influence of many uncertain factors in the face of complex and changeable economic situation at home and abroad. Most of the indicators have been restored to the level before the financial crisis in 2008.

However, there is still a big uncertainty about the positive factors that pull the indicators good. First of all, the pressure on the production cost of enterprises is further increasing, especially the continuous rising of cotton prices and the weakening of the labor cost advantage. The appreciation of the RMB will weaken the profits of the export enterprises. Secondly, the enterprises' export orders have been restricted by the risk of RMB exchange rate changes and the bargaining power. The European debt crisis has led to the decline in the number of EU orders, and the US market has been slightly weakened. The Japanese market share has been scrambled by ASEAN, and at the same time, it has been hit hard by the protectionism trade friction of the international trade. Third, the domestic cotton and yarn prices have been impeded to the downstream market, and the clothing industry CPI has declined.

Therefore, the economic trend in the second half of this year is still uncertain, and the whole industry is in a critical period of pition to stable growth.