Shang Yinquan: The Ten Major Suspense Of China'S Property Market Under The New Regulation Situation

Will housing prices really fall?

Will house prices go up?

In the first half of 2010, the turmoil in the property market was full of questions about all the people who were concerned about the rise and fall of housing prices.

After reviewing the property market from various aspects, the author summarizes ten major suspense.

It is estimated that by the end of the year, some of these ten suspense will be solved and some may remain suspense.

Suspense one, will launch the two housing reform plan.

Since the implementation of a housing reform scheme over the past decade, the effect has been quite different from the original intention of the designer. The so-called marketization is only making local governments more dependent on the revenue of land finance. The so-called marketization is just a fattening of a number of developers.

The housing problem is plagued by rising housing prices and people's grievances are getting bigger and bigger.

It should be said that a housing reform scheme has not much influence nowadays, but the soaring housing prices really originate from the housing reform of that year, which is derived from the so-called marketization.

If the government wants to really control the property market and ease the blame, it will be necessary to launch the two housing reform plan at a timely time.

Suspense two, will the property tax be born in China?

The essence of property tax is to increase the cost of the frying agent, so that people who hoard the house can not afford housing.

A few days ago, it was reported that Shanghai had to implement the property tax, and immediately after that, the Treasury officials denied it.

In fact, people who know the Chinese tax system can discern the truth of the news in Shanghai.

The right of expropriation of new taxes is a very serious matter in the central government.

It takes time to formulate, demonstrate and pass discussions.

When the real estate industry is regarded as a pillar of financial revenue by local governments, the Levy of property tax can be a sword on the head of Damour, but it will not fall in a short time.

Suspense three, how much more is the follow-up policy?

In February 27th, Premier Wen Jiabao issued a pledge on the Internet, and at the end of March and early April, the policy of "ten new countries" was pushed into the property market, and it was effective in mid May. The policy showed some power.

But only 15% off of Hengda are truly announced, and there are still some shows.

The author's newspaper is more than 500 thousand square meters away from a kilometer. In May 18th, I asked the sales gentleman to tell the real price. The answer was still "25000 yuan per square meter", and the most part was 2% off.

In the light of the situation, developers are all dead. It is true.

The policy is out of a pile, and its role is not obvious, so it seems inevitable that the policy will follow.

Suspense four, real estate developers will not be able to tax evasion.

A few days ago, I discussed the real estate market. Some colleagues said that x * NET had already published the news of serious tax evasion. However, the author read the whole article and saw only the statement of speculation. It only used logical reasoning to deduce the conclusion. There was no evidence of detailed data.

As a matter of fact, it is of great benefit for the developers to find out a few tax evasion big owners, but only the local governments are unwilling or unwilling to lay hands on them.

China has several well known developers who make big money and talk everywhere. Whether they are really clean or not can be found out by reasoning.

Suspense five, small property houses are still being built and still being sold. Will the government really manage it?

Just like saying "the capitalist school is still leaving", the small property room is still selling well.

Governance of small property houses for many years, small property houses are increasing, this year some real estate also hit the "new rural construction pilot" banner sale.

It should be said that it is extremely difficult to govern the small property right house, or that it is a difficult problem that can not give the answer. It involves too many aspects, it is a fact, and it is hard to return.

This suspense will remain a suspense in the 2010 when it becomes history.

Confined to space, the last five suspense will not be narrated. They are: is rigid demand real or illusory?

Will local governments rely on land finance to really curb housing prices?

Is it a drop in the bucket to use policy to control housing prices in the process of urbanization?

Does the property bubble really exist?

The last suspense is: how does the house price go under the new regulation?