Hangzhou Second-Hand Housing Sliding Channel Opened: Who Burst The "Pseudo School District Housing" Bubble?

      With the tightening of housing loans in the national real estate market, subtle changes have taken place in Hangzhou. Second hand houses, especially those in fake school districts, have taken the lead in cooling down.

In June, the number of contracts signed in Hangzhou's second-hand housing market (except Lin'an and Fuyang) was 7800, down 13.4% month on month. The monthly turnover of second-hand housing has dropped three times. Since July, the turnover of second-hand housing in Hangzhou has continued the downward trend. Last week (July 5 - July 11), more than 1400 second-hand housing units were signed in the urban area, down 13.5% month on month (MOM) and trading volume hit a new low, according to data from third-party institutions in Hangzhou. According to the estimates of intermediaries, according to the daily average of 214 units, the total number of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou in July is estimated to be about 6600 units, and it is even possible to break the record of 6809 units in July 2018.

The main feature of this round of decline in Hangzhou's second-hand housing is the "pseudo School District Housing" in the front row, including the comprehensive decline of the second-hand housing of famous schools and the rigid demand.

The window paper of "fake school district room" is pierced

In recent three months, the business of the intermediary stores near the headquarters of Xuejun primary school, the "ancestor" of Hangzhou school district, has been deteriorating. Some stores have not opened since July. The manager of an intermediary store in Xuejun headquarters told the 21st century economic reporter by telephone that in March this year, there were more than 20 transactions in this plate, and in June there were only 6 orders, with a drop of more than 70%; Xuejun headquarters is the benchmark of housing market in Hangzhou school district. Since 2016, after adjustment, it usually rebounds in one or two months. Now it's nearly three months, or no improvement at all. He believes that this wave of market is very similar to the adjustment in 2018, "a few more months, it will return to the dark time of 2013-2014 Hangzhou property market."

Hangzhou many school district housing plate because of the existence of "super short speculators", supporting the short-term market of the second-hand market. That is who punctured the "pseudo School District Housing" bubble, let the second-hand housing into the decline channel? It is the tightening of money, which directly "nail" these "short speculators" in the background board of the decline in second-hand house prices. This round of bank mortgage tightening for C-end affected the first-hand and second-hand houses. Some second-hand housing buyers for several banks are unable to get loans, which directly affects the transaction cycle and purchasing power.

According to people familiar with the matter, a bank in Hangzhou recently issued a notice: the pure commercial loan is normally accepted and approved, but the loan is expected to come next year, and the seller can only get the down payment, and the remaining payment needs to wait for next year. The combination loan is even slower, and the seller may not be able to get the down payment within the year. At the same time, mortgage rates have broken through 6% again.

An intermediary concluded that at present, Hangzhou's second-hand housing market, even if there is someone to accept the price reduction, it also depends on whether the bank will agree or not. At present, there are many online Red plates joining the price reduction army, such as Hangzhou Jinmao Mansion, Longhu Tianpu, Xueyuan government, Riverside City, etc.

One background is that all localities have issued a series of policies on school district housing in hot cities. According to incomplete statistics, since 2021, 13 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Xi'an, Xiamen, Chengdu, Dalian, Nanjing, Hefei, Taiyuan and Wenzhou, have taken measures to rectify the chaos in school district houses. A few days ago, Wenzhou issued a document saying that speculation in school district housing and malicious bid up house prices are strictly prohibited.

In such a hot second-line property market like Hangzhou, the emergence of cold market for school district housing has long been expected by the industry, and horizontal and even price reduction has become normal, which indirectly makes the second-hand market fall into a strong wait-and-see mood. Compared with the extreme case of 1.38 million price reduction of school district housing owners in Beijing within two days, the price reduction trend of school district housing in Hangzhou is still moderate.

At present, the most fierce speculation in Hangzhou is the blue peacock plate of Gongshu District. In 2015, due to the landing of the Affiliated School of China Normal University (hereinafter referred to as "huashifu"), the blue peacock plate was upgraded to the school district housing plate. The newly opened Rongxin blue peacock was not only famous for its peacock gall marketing case, but also caused a rush to buy houses in the new school district. If there was a lottery policy in that year, the probability of this market becoming "ten thousand people shaking" would be very great. It is understood that the Gongshu District government spent 100 million yuan on the introduction of famous schools, of which Rongxin provided half of the funds.

Five years later, the highest online price of blue peacock plate in early 2021 has reached 71000 yuan / m2.

In the past few years, the surrounding real estate was hyped as "top school district housing". Industry insiders pointed out that blue peacock plate is a typical "pseudo School District Housing" plate, "professional speculators + owners alliance" composed of a large number of real estate speculation in this plate, now the bubble is squeezed, fried tenants fleeing phenomenon is everywhere.

Recently, the intermediary in Ying Xianming's circle of friends released a number of second-hand housing listing information of Rongxin academy government (Rongxin Blue Peacock phase II): a set of 89 square meters housing in Rongxin college government was sold for 6 million yuan due to the urgent sale of house tickets. Obviously, the average price of this set of housing has been about 67000 yuan / m2. After a few days, the agency released the information of the house: the owner asked for 5.9 million yuan. In addition, the college government has several sets of houses that are claimed to have been sold at a loss at the beginning of the year.

Behind the price reduction of school district housing is that huashifu, which was popular at that time, did not have obvious performance advantages for this year's first junior high school graduates. According to people familiar with the matter, the school's performance in Gongshu District was at the tail level in the unified test at the beginning of the year, and the middle school entrance examination level this time was in the middle of Gongshu District; The number of naked examinees who can enter the top three key high schools in Hangzhou is very small. It's obviously disappointing for the owners who really want to buy their houses for the enrollment rate. As a result, the college government was labeled "pseudo School District Housing".

Not only blue peacock plate, Hangzhou several school district housing plate listing prices have declined significantly“ "Top school district housing" wendingyuan is located in the Zijingang plate of Zhejiang University, and the prices of school district housing are also falling. The auction price of wendingyuan has dropped from 100000 yuan / square meter in April to 82000 yuan / square meter now.

The transaction price of auction house is lower than the appraisal price

In this round of market, the first one to send out the price reduction signal is the French auction house, which has always been regarded as the wind vane of second-hand house prices by Hangzhou owners.

On the morning of July 11, a French auction house of Xicheng villa, a school district house of baojinta Shenhua experimental school in Hangzhou, started shooting. The house is 88.83 square meters, with the starting price of 5.4 million yuan, equivalent to the starting unit price of about 60790 yuan / square meter, the evaluation price of 6.74 million yuan, and the evaluation unit price of about 75875 yuan / square meter. Finally, 5.93 million yuan was sold, which was equivalent to 88% discount of the evaluation price.

Recently, there was also a French auction house in Lanyuan, about 170 square meters, which was sold at a price of 13.25 million yuan, which was 1.25 million lower than the evaluation price, equivalent to a 9.1% discount.

People in the industry have made a statistics on the recent transactions of French auction houses, and found that the average transaction price has been 8.6%. Frankly speaking, Hangzhou's FA Pai house has become a second-hand house price reduction lighthouse. Taking July 1-13 as an example, a total of 49 French shots were taken in Hangzhou (excluding Fuyang Tonglu, Lin'an, Jiande, Chun'an). Jadeite city has the highest premium. For a house valued at 6.87 million yuan, 7.65 million yuan was sold, with a premium rate of 11.4%. The transaction price of 32 sets was lower than the evaluation price, accounting for 65.3%, and the average premium was - 16.71%. The overall premium is - 14.25%.

After closely following the school district housing and the French auction house, the second-hand housing turnover of the rigid demand plate also showed a significant decline. Take Xiasha Yanjiang, a Hangzhou suburb with large trading volume, as an example. In April and may, there were about 200 sets of transactions. In June, only 160 sets were sold, down 20%.

The intermediary said frankly that if the second-hand housing market continues to slump, it does not rule out the tide of turnover and store closure.

What is dramatic is that Hangzhou's property market is also experiencing "final madness" at a time when school district housing and French auction house are falling. In the eyes of a long-term observer of Hangzhou property market, Hangzhou real estate market has been relying on the booming second-hand market and "perfect cooperation" with the first-hand fight. One hand to limit the price of housing, always a delivery, immediately in the second-hand market double cash; One hand can not reach the new house, crowded to the second-hand market; Second hand volume and price rise, further increase the upside down, but also lower the signing rate; Then more money flowed into the second hand. In particular, since this year, jianghehui, the future science and Technology City, Olympic sports and Shenhua some popular sub new houses, known as "monthly average increase of 10000.". No matter how inflated the landlord's skyrocketing prices, there are people who can "pick up" the second-hand housing, and also frequent transactions, which makes almost all market participants extremely anxious. The market is too hot, expectations are too consistent, new houses can not shake, second-hand housing prices are high, even investors can not see the opportunity to "pick up".

Now, Hangzhou school district housing has driven the second-hand housing into the decline channel. It can be said that most people in Hangzhou are relieved that the house prices are not rising. At least, there is hope that in the next few months, there will be opportunities to "pick up leaks". Hangzhou third-party agency data shows that in the past 30 days, Hangzhou's main urban area has reduced the number of houses by nearly 2.4 times as much as the increase in price.

An industry person pointed out that Hangzhou second-hand housing will not be "earthquake", house prices are always easy to rise but difficult to fall. He believes that the second half of this year may appear to buy second-hand housing window period. In particular, just need to live, improve their own living, "in this period of time, buy second-hand housing can talk with the landlord price.".