Capital Shock Wave Of Weilai Solid State Battery: Limited Influence Of Industrial Chain; False Alarm Of New Energy Sector

On January 11, the lithium battery plate collapsed by the news of Weilai solid-state battery was repaired on January 12.

After the opening of the same day, the lithium battery plate weakened for a time, with xinzhoubang (300037. SZ) plummeting by 9%, Tianci materials (002709. SZ), Enjie shares (002812. SZ) fell by more than 8%, Ganfeng lithium industry (002460. SZ), Sinoma Technology (002080. SZ), and greenway (002340. SZ) fell one after another.

But then in the plate, the lithium battery plate strengthened, Tianqi lithium industry (002466. SZ) rose in the afternoon, Xingyun shares (300648. SZ) rose by more than 11%, Yongxing materials (002756. SZ), GuoXuan high tech (002074. SZ), Ganfeng lithium industry and other stocks rose sharply.

However, in the new energy sector, there are still some stocks showing a downward trend, for example, enjet shares still fell by 5.57%.

Under the impact of the new technology route, will the new energy sector, which is fully organized by institutions, be differentiated?

In this regard, industry insiders said that the current semi-solid lithium battery had a small impact on the existing four major material systems, while investors said that the trend differentiation among the new energy sector stocks was more affected by market sentiment than by different degrees of bearishness.

Capital shock wave

On January 11, the first trading day of the new week, the lithium battery plate was once collapsed by the news of Weilai solid-state battery at the weekend.

On January 9, Weilai released its fourth mass production model and the first car et7 on NiO day of the fourth year. The starting price of the model before subsidy was 448000 yuan, and it is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2022. A 150kwh solid-state battery with an energy density of 360wh / kg and a range of more than 1000 km was released along with the new model.

Generally speaking, according to different electrolytes, lithium batteries can be divided into four categories: liquid (containing only liquid electrolyte), semi-solid (mass percentage of liquid electrolyte > 10%), quasi-solid (> 5%) and all solid (without any electrolyte). The latter three types can be collectively referred to as solid-state batteries.

The batteries released by Weilai are semi-solid. According to Weilai, the technological breakthrough of the solid-state battery mainly comes from three innovative processes: the use of "in situ solidified solid-liquid electrolyte" to ensure the safety of the battery cell; the use of "inorganic pre lithium silicon carbon anode" combined with "nano coated ultra-high nickel cathode" can ensure the service life and improve the charging efficiency while the energy density rises.

The biggest difference between solid-state battery and traditional lithium-ion battery is that solid-state electrolyte replaces electrolyte, electrolyte salt and separator of traditional lithium-ion battery. Therefore, some market views are worried that the release of semi-solid batteries this time may cause a reshuffle in the middle reaches of lithium batteries. According to the degree of impact, the diaphragm < electrolyte < negative electrode < positive electrode, and the diaphragm and electrolyte are greatly affected.

Affected by this bad news, lithium plate fell on January 11.

Wind data showed that the lithium battery index fell by 4.40% on January 11, and the electrolyte index and lithium battery diaphragm index, which were most negatively affected by the news of Weilai battery, fell by 7.87% and 6.99% respectively in a single day. In terms of individual stocks, Sinoma technology, duofluoroduo (002407. SZ), Tianci materials, Enjie shares, Putai (603659. SH), Shi dashenghua (603026. SH) and other stocks fell.

From the after hours trading data of dragon and tiger list, on January 11, many stocks were sold by institutions. Taking Enjie shares as an example, there were five institutional seats in the top five business departments on the dragon and tiger list on that day, namely, buy three, buy five, sell two, sell three and sell four, with a total net sales of 124.2238 million yuan.

Under the stock price crash, on January 11, many companies in related industries chose to release information with investors on the interactive platform.

For example, GuoXuan high tech responded to investors "does the company have no solid-state batteries?" At the same time, the company actively layout the next generation battery technology while continuously improving the existing battery technology. Jiangsu Guotai (002091. SZ) in response to investors "the company's solid-state battery research and development progress to what extent?" The company's subsidiary enterprises are battery material suppliers, and have research and development, production and sales of electrolytes related to solid-state batteries.

On the 11th, Enjie shares also received questions from investors in the afternoon, which directly pointed to the company's views and technical response to the impact of solid-state batteries on the stock price. In response, enjet said in the afternoon of the same day that the company has been paying attention to and participating in the technology of solid-state battery. Several years ago, it has begun to lay out the basic research and product development of the application of wet diaphragm in semi-solid battery. According to Enjie, if the semi-solid battery can be used in large-scale production in a real sense, "the relevant products of our company can be put on the market at the first time."

Moreover, on the 11th, Engel also participated in the telephone exchange meeting organized by the research group of China National Capital Corporation. Both the company's secretary and two technical directors expressed their views on the issue of semi-solid batteries.

The Board Secretary of Enjie said that even if semi-solid batteries appeared within two years, the company's operation would not be greatly affected. Semi solid state batteries still need separators, and the amount of separators does not change much.

The company's technical director, surnamed Chen, said that the company's products are relatively calm, and the best solution for semi-solid is to use a diaphragm. Zhang Xing, technical director of the company, pointed out that the diaphragm is a stress support, and the diaphragm in semi-solid battery still needs to be widely used. "Compared with the liquid battery, the porosity and pore size of the semi-solid separator are different, which has no big change to the company's production process of the base membrane, and the production can be carried out after adjusting the parameters."

The impact of industrial chain is limited

After Weilai released the new battery news over the weekend, not only the relevant listed companies held a telephone conference and answered investors' questions, but also many institutions in the market made timely comments on the event. It is generally believed that Weilai semi-solid battery will not cause great impact on the existing lithium battery industry chain, and "electrolyte" and "separator" still have a place in the new form of battery.

The new team of Societe Generale Securities and power believes that the battery introduced by Weilai this time is a primary semi-solid product. Although the safety performance is improved, it still needs electrolyte and base film. The improvement of energy density is mainly due to the use of high nickel positive electrode, silicon carbon negative electrode, pre lithium technology, etc. the above technologies can also be applied to liquid lithium batteries.

"If you don't use electrolyte, the conductivity of solid electrolyte will be greatly reduced, and there is no good solution. Therefore, enterprises should start from semi-solid state first. " The new team of Societe Generale pointed out that the solid-state battery faces two major problems: one is the "solid-solid" interface contact problem, which has large internal resistance and poor cycle performance and rate performance; the other is that it is necessary to improve the conductivity of solid electrolyte, improve the interface between the solid electrolyte and the positive and negative electrode, and reduce the internal resistance.

"We expect solid / semi-solid batteries to be used first in consumer, military and other cost insensitive areas. It is expected that some of the solid-state batteries will be used in high-end vehicles, but the total proportion will not exceed 20%. " According to the team.

The new team of Anson securities and power believes that the new battery released by Weilai is expected to use in-situ solidified solid-liquid electrolyte to prepare a new semi-solid lithium battery, which mainly solves the problem of high impedance between inorganic solid electrolyte and electrode solid / solid interface, which is different from the semi-solid lithium battery prepared by traditional gel electrolyte. Semi solid lithium battery is a compromise solution for short-term all solid state lithium battery without commercialization. It is not the final solution to solve security and improve energy density.

At the same time, the new team of Anxin power clarified the impact of semi-solid lithium battery on the existing lithium battery production. The team pointed out that "semi solid lithium battery has less impact on the existing four major material systems".

In terms of electrolytes and separators with the most intense market reaction, the team believes that semi-solid lithium batteries still need a small amount of organic solvent impregnation, and the current mainstream commercial lithium salt lifp6 and the new lithium salt LiTFSI / lifsi need to be added. As for the diaphragm, due to the existence of some electrolyte, gel electrolyte can not play the role of electronic insulation, it is still necessary to isolate the positive and negative electrodes to prevent short circuit.

"Electrochemical technology can not be achieved overnight. Solid state lithium batteries have been studied for more than 50 years. At present, the whole process is still in the stage of laboratory pilot development. In the short term, the commercialization of all solid-state batteries is still facing great challenges, and semi-solid batteries are expected to take the lead in mass production." According to the team's prediction, all solid state lithium battery products will be gradually launched during 2020-2025.

As listed companies and institutions have clarified the impact, lithium battery plate also ushered in repair on January 12.

Wind data showed that the electrolyte index and diaphragm index of lithium battery finally went out of the "V" market. On the 12th, the lithium battery index rose by 1.64%; the lithium battery electrolyte index rose by 1.23%; the lithium battery separator index fell by 0.18%, and rose by 0.30% in the session.

However, the 21st century economic reporter noticed that although the lithium battery plate was repaired on the 12th, the plate market continued to differentiate, and some hot targets continued to fall.

Enjie shares, new Zebang and Tianci materials, which fell a lot in the opening of the 12th, all ended lower. Enjie shares closed down 5.57%, new Zebang fell 5.19%, and Tianci materials fell 0.49%.

Then, why will the plate as a whole warm up, while some of the hot target is still down?

"Weilai battery" is only a relatively primary solid-state battery, but because of its high heat, it will affect the industrial chain. " A private investment researcher said in an interview with the 21st century economic report reporter. It pointed out that the decline of the target in the last two days is not due to the basic factors: "the main reason is that the mood has the upper hand. At present, the trend of this kind of target is not very related to the fundamentals. Since the valuation has reached this position, it is difficult for fundamental analysis to explain the rise and fall. "

"After all, the trend of individual stocks and the plate will not be completely consistent," the private placement said, "some of the targets that are directly negative need time to repair. After all, there are bad news effects, and it is impossible to directly reverse package. Other plate stocks are falling, naturally rebound

Another private investment researcher also expressed a similar view to the reporter in the interview, pointing out that emotion is the main reason for the fluctuation of lithium battery market in the last two days: "from the perspective of trading, it is just a callback after rising too much. It has nothing to do with the news of Weilai battery, that is, emotional effect. "