Risk Surge "Drunk With Wine Market" Frustrated Bubble Flying, Many Wine Companies Sound Alarm

At the end of the year, the A-share drinking market started again, but after more than a month of bubble flying, the food and beverage sector entered a short-term adjustment on December 23, among which the wind liquor index fluctuated violently, and finally rose slightly by 0.17%, while the CITIC liquor index went green by 1.32%, ending the five consecutive positive trend.

Specific to individual stocks, all kinds of "liquor stocks" were significantly differentiated, including highland barley liquor trading limit for the second consecutive trading day, Laobaigan liquor and jinzhongjiu rose by 6.82% and 6.15% respectively; however, Yilite, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Guizhou Maotai, yingjiagong liquor and so on turned green, falling by 5.20%, 0.54%, 1.45%, 2.09% and 2.56%, respectively.

In addition, DAHAO technology, which caused heated discussion in the market due to the backdoor of Red Star shares earlier, also ended the situation of 12 consecutive boards. It was once again up and down, but it soon opened. By the end of the 23rd, the stock price rose by 5.93%, and the amplitude of that day was as high as 16.98%.

Information map.

Small and medium-sized liquor enterprises continuously prompt risks

Since the beginning of December, the liquor plate has emerged as a rising star in the A-share market. The wine index has nearly doubled this year, with a 13.20% increase in December alone, according to wind data.

However, with the substantial increase of valuation coefficient, the 21st century economic report reporters found that liquor stocks gradually tend to be differentiated.

On the morning of December 23, liquor stocks continued to rise sharply in the afternoon. At the end of the afternoon, the liquor index also rose by 2.84%. However, in the afternoon, liquor stocks fell sharply, and the amplitude of liquor index was as high as 7%.

Gold seed wine, which had been rising for seven consecutive days, rose sharply in the morning, but opened its trading limit in the afternoon and finally closed at 6.15%. However, Yili te and St shede fell by more than 5% respectively.

The beer and wine sectors have also changed their previous frantic situation and moved towards differentiation. Specifically, Yanjing Beer, Qingdao beer, Zhujiang Beer and Chongqing beer rose by only - 1.36%, - 0.8%, - 0.58% and 1.07% respectively on the 23rd, while Changyu a, Shanxi Fenjiu and Huangtai liquor industry decreased by 0.68%, 0.54% and 5.28% respectively.

For this differentiation, in the view of the institutional people, after the early rush, the liquor plate fell into a short-term adjustment, and the future trend of liquor plate differentiation may continue.

"Differentiation should be the trend in the future. At present, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is not cheap. The overall profitability of high-end liquor is still relatively strong, but some small and medium-sized liquor enterprises are not strong in profitability. However, due to the spillover effect of the liquor sector, a large number of funds have been sought after, leading to bubbles in some enterprises. In the future, it is still necessary to return to the fundamentals of enterprises, and the liquor sector will In the process of differentiation, the stronger the stronger, and the small and medium-sized enterprises without performance support have high risk of speculation. " On December 23, the fund manager of a private placement agency in South China was interviewed.

In fact, earlier, many small and medium-sized liquor enterprises, which were wildly hyped by funds, have successively issued risk warning announcements.

For example, Jinfeng liquor, Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan, the "three swordsmen" of yellow rice wine, have risen successively against the trend. Since December, their increases have reached 93.25%, 50% and 48.97% respectively, and the turnover rate is still high. The three enterprises have successively issued announcements pointing to the potential risks of stock price trend.

Gu yuelongshan pointed out on the evening of 22nd that the company's operating revenue from January to September 2020 was 860 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.93%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 85.8567 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.49%. Affected by the fierce market competition and epidemic situation in liquor industry, the company's product sales and promotion are not as expected. It is pointed out that the turnover rate and P / E ratio of the company on the 22nd are 12.84% and 65.14 times respectively, which means that there is too much risk.

Kuaijishan also pointed out that due to the fierce market competition and epidemic situation in the liquor industry, the company's operating income and net profit in the first three quarters of 2020 will drop by 10.49% and 21.20%, respectively, and the turnover rate of the company's stock is 10.12%, which means there is a risk of high turnover rate.

Jinfeng liquor also announced that after self inspection and verification with the controlling shareholders and actual controllers, there is no material information that should be disclosed but not disclosed. Recently, the company's stock price fluctuated greatly, and the stock turnover rate was high. As of December 22, the company's static P / E ratio was 271.36 times, significantly higher than the average level of rice wine industry.

On December 23, the three stocks dived one after another in the afternoon and continued to rise. The market stalled.

Among them, Guyue Longshan was trading for three consecutive days from December 18 to 22, but on the 23rd, it fell sharply from the trading limit board, and finally fell by 1.12%, ending nearly half a month's continuous positive situation; Jinfeng liquor, which had been trading for two consecutive trading days, also opened its trading limit in the afternoon, and its stock price only rose by 5.53%.

"Drinking market" valuation bubble soaring

In fact, for some small and medium-sized liquor enterprises, their own performance is not outstanding, but they enjoy the premium from the industry, which leads to investors' pursuit.

YueKai securities strategy analyst Yin Yue pointed out that the current liquor market is from high-end, secondary high-end liquor to small liquor diffusion.

"The sustained economic recovery has led to the recovery of consumption. At the end of the year, the liquor industry ushered in the peak sales season. The small liquor has the performance flexibility, and the first and second tier liquor in the early stage have continued to strengthen. The market capital's preference for liquor has spilled over, and there is room for the valuation and repair of small wine and equipment, so as to go out of the supplementary market. In the long run, the certainty of sustained economic recovery is relatively high, and residents' consumption capacity and consumption demand have been continuously boosted. Superimposed on this year's low base and the general trend of consumption upgrading, the future valuation of wine enterprises is expected to further increase. " Yin Yue said.

According to the data of the Securities Industry Association, as of December 23, the dynamic P / E ratio of the wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry was 54.32 times. If you look back to the one-year interval, the average price earnings ratio of the industry in one year is only 41.98 times (the average price earnings ratio of the latest year = the arithmetic average of the daily static P / E ratio of the industry from December 23, 2019 to December 22, 2021, Only trading days are counted during calculation).

Based on this calculation, a year ago, the dynamic P / E ratio of the wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry must be less than 41.98 times, which means that in a year, in the absence of effective performance growth support, the P / E ratio of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry has increased by 37.76%.

Specifically, the valuation improvement of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry was driven by liquor industry. However, according to the statistics of Wanlian securities, in the first three quarters of 2020, the average revenue of liquor industry increased by only 11.71% year-on-year, the growth rate increased by 7.99% month on month, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by only 13.59% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 7.47% month on month.

This also means that the growth rate of valuation in the liquor industry in the past year has far exceeded that of the liquor industry.

In addition, horizontal comparison, the valuation of liquor plate is even much higher than many emerging industries.

As of December 23, the average dynamic P / E ratio of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry was 54.32 times, which was 45.43 times higher than that of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, 47.12 times of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, 45.99 times of information transmission, software and information technology service industry, and 51.58 times of scientific research and technical service industry.

Some liquors, such as Shanxi Fenjiu 146.61 times dynamic P / E, highland barley liquor 315.58 times dynamic P / E, Huiquan beer 170.29 times dynamic P / E ratio, Jiugui Liquor 139.09 times dynamic P / E ratio, Jinfeng wine industry 286.26 times dynamic P / E ratio, compared with many emerging industry companies can only catch up with.

In the obviously overheated market atmosphere, speculation is also popular. The more typical is the gold seed wine which is still in the loss state. In 2019, the company lost 204 million yuan, and continued to lose 104 million yuan from January to September 2020. The P / E ratio is negative. However, affected by the active atmosphere in the liquor industry, the company has been positive for eight consecutive years, and its share price has risen as high as 119.82% since December.

"Due to the continuous large short liquor market, the cumulative increase is large, overbooking is serious. Recently, the super bull stocks and DAHAO technology with the theme of liquor continued to rise and limit yesterday, but the trend of large orders showed that the net outflow of funds was relatively large. This morning, it barely rose sharply, but the capital continued to flow out. And other four line liquor in a short period of trading, chips also began to loose. In the short term, the risk coefficient has increased, and the middle line of low-priced liquor varieties will continue to see more, but in the short-term, there is a demand for adjustment, and we should be cautious in pursuing higher prices. " On December 23, Xing Xing, director of boxing Securities Research Institute and chief investment adviser, pointed out.