European And American Epidemic Situation Out Of Control

Our textile industry is highly dependent on exports. From January to November this year, our textile exports amounted to 141.651 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.64% over the same period of last year, and the cumulative export amount of clothing was 123.567 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.21%. Among them, the growth rate of textile export value in November rose from that of last month, with the export amount of 12.040 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.96%; the export amount of clothing continued to maintain a positive growth, with the export amount of 12.55 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%.

Under this year's epidemic situation, the textile export volume did not decrease, but increased. The main reason is that the demand for epidemic prevention products in overseas countries is strong, which drives our export of epidemic prevention fabrics. But in the textile market, generally speaking, the number of enterprises involved in epidemic prevention fabrics is still limited. Most of them are ordinary clothing fabrics, and the number of companies that can make profits in this wave is also small. Especially in the case of a 10.21% year-on-year decline in the clothing export volume from January to November, but fortunately, the clothing export volume in November has increased by 3.6% year-on-year. It seems that the textile and garment market has gone out of the most difficult time.

However, the recent out of control situation in Europe and the United States has cast a shadow on the export of textile and garment fabrics. According to the report, the proportion of new confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 400000 in one day on December 18, and at other times, the number of new cases per day basically remained at about 200000. Britain's epidemic situation is even more exaggerated. British health minister Hancock said that the new coronavirus strain found in the country has been out of control. The spread of the new virus after mutation is 70% higher than that of the original strain. London, UK, has begun to stage a large escape.

The epidemic prevention situation is grim, and "Christmas Day" and "New Year's Day" will be silent

The severe epidemic situation has also made many countries begin to upgrade the level of epidemic prevention and implement more stringent prevention and control measures.

London, southeastern and eastern England have risen from three levels of prevention and control to four levels since the 20th, according to reports. Entering the fourth level of blockade, department stores and indoor fitness venues are closed, and people are prohibited from entering and leaving the area. The epidemic prevention level will last for two weeks. At least 18 countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland and Italy, have suspended their passage to and from the United Kingdom. Austria is the third comprehensive "city closure" from December 26 to January 17 next year.

The phenomenon of city closure in many countries and regions happened just before Christmas and new year's Eve. In the past, this period of time is a good time for European and American countries to take a holiday for shopping. But this year, the vast majority of people may have to spend it in their own homes. In particular, the entire British blockade area involves more than 16 million people, equivalent to a quarter of the total British population.

People in all blockaded areas are likely to go shopping and spend extravagantly. Some countries and regions that have not yet been blocked will inevitably increase epidemic prevention measures and restrict people's travel and gathering when the epidemic situation worsens again. Christmas this year has been destroyed for European and American people. In recent months, the clothing and gifts prepared by the textile industry for Christmas are hard to sell well when the stores are closed and the flow of people is reduced. The current situation is very similar to the global situation at the beginning of this year.

Overstocked inventory, mutation virus, or will affect the next year's market

How to solve the inventory of textile and garment enterprises has been plagued. Low price discount sales promotion, not only the profit is damaged, but also may affect the brand value; direct burning, huge loss is not conducive to environmental protection. It is in the interests of textile and garment enterprises to keep the next quarter for resale, and most enterprises do the same this year. If the sales of spring clothes are blocked at the beginning of the year, they will be changed and sold again in autumn. If they can not be sold out in autumn, they will continue to sell them in spring next year.

This year's Christmas season in Europe and America will inevitably lead to unsalable clothing market due to the outbreak of the epidemic again and people's travel restrictions. This part of the inventory clothing will undoubtedly appear in the autumn and winter market next year, which will certainly lead to a reduction in fabric orders next autumn and winter to a certain extent.

On the other hand, the current textile market is generally optimistic about the market in the second half of next year, which is mainly based on the gradual input of vaccines. But will the emergence of a new strain in the UK lead to the failure of the current vaccine? Of course, there is no definite evidence that the new strain may affect the vaccine and treatment, but there is still a possibility.

In the first half of next year, due to the overstock of clothing inventory this spring and summer, it is basically not optimistic, and the order rate will not improve. Once the market loses its optimism for the second half of next year, the lack of orders will continue throughout 2021. This year, the vast majority of textile enterprises have been struggling to support. If the market does not improve next year, many textile enterprises may go bankrupt and leave the market.

Before the global epidemic situation is under control, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the textile market. In particular, the recent deterioration of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, out of control, make next year's textile market confusing.