Global Economic Pattern And China'S Economic Development Under The Epidemic Situation

 

    Liu Jian said that at present, the global economy and China's economic operation are still under the background of the impact of the epidemic. If we use three key words to sum up, they are isolation (the physical isolation of the epidemic affects the development of Globalization), unemployment (the government pays attention to people's livelihood, and the unemployment rate has decreased since April) and debt (the global debt is expected to soar to a record high of $277 trillion by the end of the year) 45% year on year). Under this background, the current global economic pattern presents the characteristics of "rising in the East and descending in the west", accelerating the backflow of supply chain in some developed economies, differences in the time and degree of global economic recovery, and the evolution of globalization from "protectionism" to "regionalism".  

 

With the gradual launch of vaccines, confidence in the global economic recovery has been significantly improved. However, we need to pay attention to the imbalance and acceleration of economic recovery caused by unbalanced vaccine supply. In addition, in order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on economic operation, many countries continue to implement monetary easing policy and active fiscal policy, and put more emphasis on better coordination between the two.

 

    Based on the current epidemic situation and the current situation of global economic operation, the following expectations are made for the economic operation in 2021: first, the zero negative interest rate level will continue, or will last for about 10 years; second, central banks will not stop printing money, and will continue to purchase financial assets, taking the purchase of treasury bonds by the United States Federal Reserve as an example; third, central banks' economic expenditure on people's livelihood will increase, and the deficit will continue; fourth, the central bank will continue to purchase financial assets Leaders of various countries have no intention to reduce the price of financial assets; fifthly, cash will be an inevitable loss asset, so we need to find a good investment channel; sixth, from the perspective of value, we need to pay attention to value and look for cash flow; finally, as the risks of various assets are increasing, it is suggested to diversify investment.

 

Returning to the operation of the bulk commodity market, the impact of the epidemic in 2021 is expected to be difficult to completely subside, but under the expectation of tightening supply side and recovering consumer demand, it is expected to show an overall upward trend. Specific to the operation of the cotton market, under the resonance of macro policy support, vaccine optimistic prospects, high acquisition costs and other factors, it is expected that cotton prices will still have upward momentum.