"Risk Aversion" Of Public Funds

After the fiery July, under the current market adjustment, fund managers also present different views and allocation ideas.

Since August, the Shanghai Composite Index has been continuously fluctuating and adjusting at 3300 points. As of August 13, the Shanghai stock index has risen slightly by 0.32%. On August 13, the Shanghai composite index showed a sideways trend, closing at 3320.73 points, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index fell 0.13% and 0.49% respectively.

On the whole, the issuing scale of public funds in July climbed to the historical peak.

According to wind data, the total scale of new fund issuance in July this year was 590.561 billion yuan.

However, judging from the market transactions since August, the sentiment of waiting-and-see has become increasingly strong in the near future.

On August 13, the transaction volume of the two cities totaled 881.49 billion yuan, which continued to shrink compared with the previous day.

While the underlying impact of our core assets is not constant, the underlying impact is not. We will continue to regard science and technology as a strategic configuration, and continue to add cyclical products that come with the repair of demand. " Boshi Fund chief macro strategy analyst Wei Fengchun said.

Short term or cautious

"The market adjustment, on the one hand, is the digestion of the risk of early rise, on the other hand, it is worried about the possible tightening of monetary policy in the second half of the year, and also has a certain relationship with the international tension." On August 13, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

Judging from the market situation on August 13, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel and comprehensive industries led the rise on that day, while the hot pharmaceutical and biological sector led the decline in the whole market. In addition, nonferrous metals, banking, electronics, computers and other industries also showed a decline.

"At present, the main factor affecting the market is the change of domestic liquidity. The social financing growth rate in July was lower than expected, which is the main reason for the continuous decline of the market in recent years. " Fu Jian, the research director of Founder Fubang foundation, told the 21st century economic reporter.

However, Fu Jian believes that "the tightening of liquidity in the market is a little over cautious. From historical experience, the probability of central bank tightening liquidity in the early stage of economic recovery is low."

Yang Delong also pointed out that the continuous adjustment of the A-share market reflects investors' expectation of tightening monetary policy. The total amount of social financing is lower than expected, which reflects the gradual withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy tools, but the conventional monetary policy instruments have not been tightened, and the economic liquidity is still reasonable and abundant.

However, Cai bin, manager of Boshi Rongxiang return hybrid fund, said that in the short term, the overall view of the market is still relatively cautious, and more structural market conditions need to be paid attention to, which is the contradiction between economic fundamentals and liquidity.

On the other hand, Sino US friction is still a factor that can not be ignored in the current market.

According to the analysis of the macro strategy Department of GDF, Sino US friction is not the core variable affecting the market, but will only periodically disturb the market rhythm.

"At the current trading level, the characteristics of A-share capital market are gradually weakening. Under the impact of the United States, the market will remain volatile." Wei Fengchun said.

In fact, judging from the data of new funds since August, although there have been pop funds, on the whole, compared with the hot atmosphere in July, there is still a certain cooling down.

Statistics show that since August, as of August 13, a total of 30 new funds have been issued, of which 26 are active equity funds. The number of new issuance of active equity funds is still the largest, but the amount of money burst is relatively small.

"Looking forward to the future, we are still optimistic about A-share market. China's economy will gradually improve in the next few quarters. The central bank will probably take care of the market. We are relatively optimistic about the slow bull market of A-share in the second half of the year." Fu Jian expresses.

Rising risk aversion

"In the second half of the year, there will still be a lot of new active equity products on the market, and the focus is still on equity products." A public fund in South China said.

Although many public funds remain enthusiastic about equity products, in the short term, slight adjustments in market sentiment may have emerged.

"From the perspective of valuation, the overall market valuation is not particularly overvalued, and the differentiation of individual stocks below the median is also relatively obvious. Companies with high valuations may be in a historically high position, but some resource enterprises with low valuations, such as banks and real estate upstream, are in a very low historical position. So there is a big differentiation in the market, which will make the stability of the market not high enough. " Cai Bin thinks.

Jiao Wei, the manager of Yinhua Fuli fund, also put forward his concern on the follow-up risks. He believed that the next biggest risk point was the volatility caused by short-term market sentiment and structural overvalued risk.

"From the history of A-share, the change of short-term sentiment after the stock market boom will produce huge fluctuations. With the influx of a large number of new investors recently, the structure of market investors has changed, and the stock market sentiment and market performance have also shown obvious volatility risk. At the same time, the short-term overheating of the market also leads to higher valuations of some sectors, and the total market value of some leading companies continues to rise, which will accumulate the high-level adjustment risk of the industry and individual stocks. " Jiao Wei said.

It is worth mentioning that, in the recent A-share market continuous volatility adjustment, the market risk aversion sentiment also appears in the short-term rise to a certain extent.

According to the data, as of August 13, the 10-year Treasury bond futures t2009 contract has increased by 0.48%, and the five-year treasury bond futures contract has also risen slightly by 0.03%. At the same time, the yield of cash bonds also showed a certain downward trend. After the recent high on August 7, the yield of active 10-year Treasury bonds fell.

"The deterioration of Sino US international relations and the instability of the international situation have reduced investors' optimism about the equity market and attracted attention to the allocation of bond funds." A large public offering fund in Beijing said.

According to the data collected by 21st century economic report reporters, as of August 13, a total of three mixed funds with partial bonds have been launched. Among them, e-fund-a-heng has held the mixed fund for nine months, and the fund-raising has been terminated ahead of schedule. Data show that the fund's share of combined issuance reached 7.211 billion.

In fact, the bond funds issued intensively in late July have also brought some support to the bond market. At the same time, these products are also sought after by institutional funds.

For example, on July 31, Everbright Prudential zunhe announced that it would end its offering in advance two days after its issuance, and eventually the fund's share of issuance reached 8 billion; several products issued in the same period, such as Changxin Purui and CICC Xinfu, also achieved 8 billion shares.