The Yarn Market Is Still Good For The Future.

"Golden autumn October" has just passed, but the textile market is hard to see "golden nine silver ten" scene. As of October 31st, the domestic C32S average price was 20478 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 3 yuan / ton compared with last week. The yarn Market in all parts of the country is still in a sluggish atmosphere, and the market is hard to boost confidence in the market. Spinning enterprises are mostly stock, and downstream sales continue to be sluggish, yarn prices are weak, and the market is dull.

From the perspective of yarn stock, the goods have been running smoothly in recent years, but the Department's varieties have already gone off and the stock has dropped, but the speed has slowed down. At present, the average stock of spinning enterprises is about 19 days, which is close to the same period last year, but it is still higher than that of 17 years. On the machine side, after the national day, the textile enterprises gradually restarted, and the overall speed was raised slowly. At present, the start-up is relatively stable, and the starting load is maintained at around 58%.

From the downstream weaving factory situation, the market trend is better than the yarn, but due to the early inventory too much, it is still maintained at 26 days. At present, weaving factories are mostly producing winter orders, but they are coming to an end. There are not many orders for cloth in spring and summer. Export orders are weak, and weaving mills reflect increased sales to Vietnam. Overall, the downstream market is not optimistic, procurement is very cautious, wait-and-see mood is very strong.

Recently, the trend of cotton in the upper reaches has been slightly warmer, but in general, from the beginning of September to the present, the cotton price fluctuated greatly under the influence of the macro environment, while the price of pure cotton yarn was relatively stable, and the trend was obviously weaker than cotton. From the theoretical profit and loss chart, we can see that spinning enterprises still earn money at present. But the premise is still to have orders, because the downstream weaving factory orders are far less than in previous years, and orders difficult to connect, most textile enterprises said that pure cotton yarn price pressure, but the actual operation is very difficult. From the standpoint of cost support, unless cotton prices continue to rise sharply in the short term, the driving force of pure cotton yarn is still insufficient.

In recent months, the price of internal and external yarns is almost the same. As of October 31st, the FCY Index C32S index was closed at 21187 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. According to China Customs data, the number of imported cotton yarn in China in September 2019 was 150 thousand tons, a sharp decline compared with last year. However, according to market research, the real situation is not so absolute, mainly because of the statistical data of customs data, which resulted in a large number of Chinese imports of Pakistan yarn did not enter the statistical system. It is estimated that 1-9 months in 2019, China imported Pakistan cotton yarn about 240 thousand tons, down 10.5% from the same period last year. According to Pakistan customs data, in 2019 1-9, Pakistan exported 343 thousand tons of cotton yarn, down 8.9% compared with the same period last year, of which the proportion of export to China was steady or slightly increased. On the whole, cotton yarn trade between China and Pakistan is normal, and China's imports are stable.

On the other hand, Pakistan's cotton mill has a good profit at present, which is mainly due to the sharp depreciation of rupee and China's tariff policy towards Pakistan. However, due to the domestic cotton inflation in Pakistan, Pakistan has to import from abroad to make up for the shortage of raw materials. At present, the confrontation between India and Pakistan and the stagnation of trade and trade have made Pakistan import more cotton and Vietnamese yarn. This also indirectly leads to Vietnam's yarn being "thriving" in all foreign yarn, and keeps rising trend.

Generally speaking, the yarn market is still good enough for a period of time, but the market outlook is still very grim. The macroeconomic benefits can not give the actual profits to the enterprises, and have limited impact on the market. Whether the future price can go up depends on the trend of raw material cotton.