Business Rebound, Manufacturing PMI Rose 0.3 Percentage Points In September

In September, the manufacturing industry exceeded expectations. In September 30th, the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in September, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, said that although the business is still below the line of prosperity and decline, the overall boom has improved since last month.

Zhao Qinghe pointed out that the PMI index of manufacturing industry mainly presented five characteristics this month, including double expansion of production demand, improvement of foreign trade situation, continuous expansion of high technology manufacturing industry, and recovery of large, medium and small enterprises, and enterprises' confidence has been raised.

In September, production demand expanded. Among them, the new order index was 50.5%, a rise of 0.8 percentage points in the annulus ratio, the first time since May, it has expanded to the expansion interval, production activities have also been accelerated, production index is 52.3%, and the annulus ratio has increased 0.4 percentage points, including manufacturing of agricultural and sideline food processing, textile and clothing, special equipment, electrical machinery and other manufacturing industries index is located in the 55% higher boom area.

At the same time, although raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index still fluctuated on the line of ups and downs with 47.6%, 47% and 50.5%, they have recovered 0.1, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

"In August, the industrial production slowed down as a result of single month storage and super typhoon and other extreme weather effects. In September, the weather weakened, the issuance of special debt accelerated the demand for infrastructure investment, and the demand for consumer goods overlapped remained stable, making the overall industrial demand improved." Shen Wan Hongyuan macro research report analysis pointed out.

In terms of imports and exports, although this month's new growth and export orders index is still in the contraction range of 47.1% and 48.2% respectively, it rose by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.

According to the foreign trade data of the first 8 months of this year, the total import and export volume of China's trade in goods increased by 3.6% over the same period last year. Zhao Ping, a researcher with the China Council for the promotion of international trade, said that this is a good achievement under the current global economic downturn and the rise of protectionist sentiments in all countries.

The total imports and exports of private enterprises gathered by labor-intensive industries increased by 11.2% in the same month. At the same time, the positive growth trend of China's import and export data along the "one belt and one road" level has partly hedged the negative impact of Sino US trade friction.

It is noteworthy that the signs of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry are increasingly evident. In September, the high-tech manufacturing industry continued to expand, the PMI index was 51.3%, higher than the manufacturing PMI 1.5 percentage points, and has been in the 51% consecutive expansion for 8 consecutive months. Among them, medicine, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry expanded faster.

From the demand situation, the new order index of high-tech manufacturing industry is 53.3%, rising by 0.9 percentage points, and the market is expected to improve.

At the same time, the business boom has also been rising. The PMI index of large, medium and small enterprises was 50.8%, 48.6% and 48.8% respectively, rising 0.4, 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points from last month. Among them, the production index of large, medium and small enterprises has increased, and this month is all in the expansion section.

"In September, the prosperity of large enterprises increased, and the contraction of medium-sized enterprises for the first time eased. The situation of small business contraction has been alleviated for 2 consecutive months." Xie Yaxuan, Gao Ming, a macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities, said.

The Huatai Securities Research Institute report further added that the overall PMI chain will continue downward pressure in the future, and earnings expectations may continue to show a trend of recovery, but small and micro enterprises will still need time to improve.

Zhao Qinghe said that with the support of a number of measures to support the development of the real economy in succession, business confidence has been boosted. Manufacturing enterprises' production and business activity expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 54.4%, the highest in the third quarter.

Recently, important meetings have frequently released the "six stable" signals. Following the announcement of the central bank's "interest rate merger" in August 17th, the state will further deploy precise measures in September 4th to strengthen the work of "six stability", and make special arrangements to make good use of special debt so as to form effective investment. The meeting also stressed the need to speed up the implementation of measures to lower the level of real interest rates, and increase financial support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises. In September 6th, the central bank announced that it will comprehensively reduce its quota from September 16th, and further implement its regular deployment.

On the next step, Xie Yaxuan and Gao Ming pointed out that although manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction zone, PPI has entered the deflation interval, and the cumulative growth rate of industrial enterprises is still negative. But since August, the marginal changes in the power of the counter cyclical regulation have shown that the boom will soon be bottoming out. At present, the manufacturing PMI in September has bottomed out. Secondly, the finished product inventory cycle is coming to the bottom, pointing to the PPI rebound. "Under the comprehensive consideration, we will turn the cumulative profit growth rate of industrial enterprises to the right place, and the anticipated time point of the prosperity and decline line of the manufacturing PMI station will advance from November to October."