"A Good Start" Is Fading Away. Behind The Undercurrent Of Polyester Filament Market: Seek Stability And Win!

In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, whether the raw material PTA market is going up or down, the polyester filament market has maintained a steady trend.

Behind the quiet market, there is a continuous wave of undercurrents. The market of polyester filament and the market of "opening up" seem to be fading away.

The main raw material PTA encountered Waterloo, polyester filament is not surprising.

Since January, under the premise of stabilizing and recovering crude oil prices, the price of PTA has been rising from below 5600 yuan / ton, and the price of PX has exceeded 6600 yuan / ton at the end of January.

However, the recent PTA price has been rushed to Waterloo. 12 days and nights, the market started to go up and down. On the 13 day, it continued to take a downward trend. The closing price of PTA was close to the lowest point in the day. It fell by over 300 yuan / ton compared with the opening price.

At present, as of 14 days closing, the PTA price is down by 6.2% over the recent peak.

The market of polyester raw materials suddenly changed, but the cost support for polyester filament was acceptable, and most downstream factories were not yet returned to the market. The downstream factories that started the operation only maintained pre production orders, and stocked the raw materials before digestion.

Facing the cold purchasing emotion in the downstream market and considering the pressure of increasing inventory, the polyester filament factory in the first week of the festival will have a steady mentality.

Supply: recovery started slightly earlier than last year, and 8 sets of pre - Holiday stop devices have been heated up and restarted.

According to statistics, this year polyester filament factory resumption is slightly earlier than the same period last year. (refer to table 1 for details of the device), as of February 14th, February, there were 8 sets of pre operation shut-off PET filament device to restart heating, which involved 2 million 430 thousand tons of capacity. At present, the daily running rate of polyester filament has risen to 75%. Next week, 9 sets of pre stopping devices are restarted, and the load of the restarted device has been gradually increased, and the polyester filament operating rate has risen to 84%.

Dynamic list of polyester filament device in February

Unit: 10000 tons

Inventory: pre - Holiday inventory is lower than in previous years, short term polyester market supply increased significantly.

According to statistics, before the Spring Festival, the stock of polyester filament mill dropped to a low point for 6-17 days. After accumulating during the Spring Festival holiday, the stock of polyester filament mill increased to 9-19 days this week, but slightly lower than that of the first week 11-20 days after last year's holiday.

After the first week of the festival, the polyester filament factory has no shipping pressure at present, so it is more expensive to ship, and the market is temporarily light.

But the second week and third weeks after last year were the period when the stock of polyester filament factory increased substantially. And this year, the polyester filament factory restarted earlier, and the downstream factories were stocked before the festival. Therefore, it is estimated that the number of polyester filament factories in the late February will increase or increase.

Although the upstream market has a natural advantage in terms of pricing power in the downstream market, with the increase in the market supply of polyester filament, it is particularly important to see whether the downstream demand can be digested as scheduled.

Demand: sufficient raw materials for downstream raw materials, waiting for digestion.

Before the Spring Festival holiday, the raw materials for raw materials in the downstream factories are adequate. Most downstream factories can use the quantity of raw materials before the end of the year, and the raw material preparation can be used until the end of February. A few downstream factories can be used until the beginning of March, and downstream factories are later than polyester factories. Therefore, even after the Lantern Festival, there are still enough raw materials to digest.

In addition, because the downstream preorder orders are not locked in price, even though the market of polyester filament market is rising, it is difficult to improve the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories.

At the same time, according to the situation of the downstream factories' reemployment cycle in the past year, the start-up rate of the downstream factories will rise sharply in the second weeks after the holiday, and the start-up rate of the downstream factories can rise to 85% near the fourth weeks after the holiday.

On the whole, in February, the downstream factories resumed work in succession, and mostly digested their own raw material stocks, and the demand for polyester filament market was not strong enough.

Therefore, after the Spring Festival, with the recovery of industrial chain production, the terminal weaving enterprises will face the dilemma of high inventory of raw materials and poor sales of products.

Therefore, whether the final market can be continued or not, the situation of the terminal textile market is still one of the decisive factors.

On the whole, behind the smooth running of the polyester filament market this week, the polyester filament factory and downstream factories also have to face each other and compete for the new single price situation.

In February, the "good start" market in the recent market of raw materials PTA continued to fall behind the sales pressure of the polyester filament factory.