Sino US Trade In Goods Exports Temporarily Slowed Down, Which Has Limited Impact On The Future.

On the evening of July 2nd, the General Administration of Customs announced the export data of China's goods trade to the United States in the first half of this year.

Compared with the same period last year, China's exports to the United States slowed down significantly. The impact of Sino US trade frictions on exports this year is beginning to show. However, in the context of China's increasingly diversified foreign trade structure and rapid growth in service trade exports, the slowdown in the growth of trade in goods has limited impact on China's economy.

Growth rate decline

According to figures released by the General Administration of customs, China's exports to the United States increased by 5.4% in the first half of this year, and its growth rate was 13.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, exports to the US increased by 3.8% in June, and the growth rate dropped by 23.8 percentage points.

Specifically, in the first half of this year, China's exports to the US increased by 8%, accounting for 62.6% of the total value of exports to the United States over the same period, of which 3.6% of automatic data processing equipment and its components and 5.5% of mobile phones grew. Over the same period, the total export value of the seven categories of traditional labor-intensive products was basically the same as that of the same period last year. clothing The accessories and accessories decreased by 1.8%, and furniture and parts increased by 2.5%.

In June, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to the United States increased to 4%, of which 6.6% were automatic data processing equipment and its components, and 7.1% were mobile phones. Over the same period, exports of traditional labour intensive products increased by 3.5%, and agricultural products decreased by 0.9%.

In response, Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed to the Beijing Commercial Daily reporter that the reduction in China's export growth to the US trade in goods was a decline in the overall export growth and did not have a structural impact, taking account of the largest number of electromechanical products exported to the United States in the same period as an example. In June, the growth rate of China's exports to the United States decreased, but still maintained growth. In addition, the data also show that in June, the total export value of seven major traditional labor-intensive products in China was basically the same as that of the same period last year, indicating that Sino US trade friction has less impact on employment in China.

On the other hand, China's exports to the United States are also slowing down month by month. Among them, the growth rate in 1-2 months was 20.1%, 1-3 in 8.1%, 1-4 in 6.5%, and 5.8% in 1-5.

In fact, according to the previous plan, China's first half year external import and export trade data will be released in July 13th, and the time for us export data to be released is obviously ahead of schedule.

Limited influence

In June this year, the White House issued a list of tariffs on China, which will impose a 25% tariff on goods worth 50 billion US dollars. On Friday (July 6th), the first batch of products involving 818 categories of US $34 billion will begin to be taxed. The list mainly covers information and communication technology, aerospace, robotics, medicine, machinery and so on. industry 。

In July 3rd, foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang made it clear that the Chinese government is obliged, of course, to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests, including the legitimate rights and interests of China's industry and consumers. Recently, the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China has made clear statements several times, stressing that if the United States issued the so-called list of taxes, China is ready to make comprehensive use of all necessary measures and resolutely safeguard China's national interests and people's interests.

Wang Changlin, executive vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, once said that the US $50 billion product to levy tariffs in China accounted for only 11.6% of China's exports to the United States last year, accounting for 2.2% of China's total exports. Preliminary estimates show that even if the export volume of US $50 billion has declined, the impact on economic growth will be less than 0.1 percentage points.

Wang Changlin believes that China's economic potential is strong and resilience. market There is a large room for maneuver and room for maneuver. It is expected that Sino US trade friction will have little impact on China's market. "Machinery, pharmaceuticals, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other industries are not labor-intensive industries, and a slight decrease in the volume of exports to the US by some enterprises will not lead to large-scale layoffs. At the same time, considering the fact that some export commodities can turn to other countries or domestic markets, the actual impact of employment will be smaller. "

Bai Ming also pointed out that mutual tariffs would have some impact on China's import and export trade. However, according to the tax increase list, the United States will restrict the downstream industries such as information and communication technology, and will inevitably suffer losses in upstream areas such as spare parts, raw materials, machinery and so on. And a large part of China's imports of these products come from the United States, which will also have an impact on the export of some US products.

Increasingly diverse

At present, with the increasingly close trade between China and the countries and regions along the "one belt and one road", our trading partners are becoming more diversified, and the power spanformation and structural adjustment are also accelerating.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June this year, China's export volume reached US $212 billion 870 million in 5 months, the highest since this year, and the growth rate was basically unchanged from last month. From the point of view of export destinations, the export growth rate of emerging markets, especially the countries and regions along the belt and road, is obviously higher than the average level.

On the other hand, in the export trade structure, the growth of service trade is particularly fast, which is also in line with the trend of Global trade structure change. Statistics show that the proportion of service trade in the main developed countries in the whole trade is generally higher than that in the developing countries, and the proportion of service trade in foreign trade is still rising.

Xian Guoyi, director of the Ministry of Commerce, trade and business services, said that the value added of OECD members and emerging economies in manufacturing industries were 1/2 and 1/3 respectively. These high-end production services are located at the two ends of the smile curve, with high added value and strong integration capability, which will continue to promote the status of enterprises in the global value chain.

Ministry of commerce data show that in the first 4 months of this year, China's trade in services exports 552 billion 610 million yuan, an increase of 13%. Among them, the export of emerging services was 288 billion 600 million yuan, accounting for 50% of total exports of services, reaching 52.2%.

Li Yuan, deputy director of the Ministry of Commerce, trade and trade and services, said that the rapid growth of import and export services showed that the global economy as a whole promoted the demand of the international market, and provided favorable external conditions for the development of service trade. At the same time, it showed that the measures adopted by the state to support the development of service trade played an important role in stabilizing expectations and promoting growth.

In February 2016, the State Council approved the launching of a pilot project for the development of trade in services in 15 regions such as Tianjin and Shanghai. It required two years to focus on 8 aspects, namely, the management system, development mode and facilitation of service trade. Data show that the growth rate of imports and exports in the pilot area generally exceeds the national average level. In 2017, the import and export of services in the pilot area accounted for 51.9% of the total share of the country, which was 5 percentage points higher than that before the pilot.

Driven by the pilot, the national service exports grew rapidly. In 2017, the export of services was 1 trillion and 540 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year. This is the highest growth rate since 2012. It is also the first time in the past seven years that the export of services has increased faster than imports.

In June this year, the State Council formally approved the pilot scheme for deepening the innovation and development of service trade, which will further support the development of international trade in services. market The export of clothing and trade will also usher in a new huge space.