Li Zhilin: Why Did The A Share Go Up Or Not?

This week, the gold card has completed the task of filling the 3040 to 3078 point gap in the big index, and even set a new market value at 3140.

Next Friday, it is time for people to actively arrange the hot market of autumn grabbing market, and strive for the capital card to reach the target in advance in the fourth quarter, when the index reaches less than 3539 at the end of last year.

Why did the European, American and Japanese stock markets rise for 7 years after the financial crisis in 2008, and the index increased by more than 200%, even at a record high, while the Chinese stock market has always been a global champion? Why did the US Federal Reserve decide to postpone raising interest rates? The US and European stock markets rose for 2 consecutive days, while the A shares rose only 1 days, and the next day there was a diving.

everything

Too fast.

In the case of the elimination of off site allocation and the sharp decline in field financing, the A share market's current expansion rate at 3000 points is equivalent to that of the 5178 batch expansion last year, that is, the two batch of each month, and 14 new shares per batch.

Although the IPO has cancelled the purchase of funds, it has avoided the stock market volatility caused by the substantial relocation of the funds. However, the rapid listing of a large number of new shares still takes away the active funds of the market.

After the new shares are sold out, the huge profits will no longer enter the two tier market.

The two is size reduction.

Many of the new shares issued after the circulation of only 1/10 of the total, resulting in future huge volume of non dumping risks.

In addition, the listed companies frequently send 10 to 20 and 10 to 30. In the future, they will refinance much more, extract more funds from the market, and reduce their holdings through the relatively low share price after the elimination of power.

Therefore, people can see on the website of China Securities Investor protection fund that this year, the stock fund flows out of 20 billion - 30 billion every month, and the market supply and demand relationship is constantly unbalanced, which has consumed the energy that the market should have.

Therefore, it is suggested that the management should reduce the monthly issue of new shares to a group of 15 or so.

In recent years, the maturity of foreign mature stock market has been rising steadily, even with a record high, which is related to the strength of its institutional investors, which accounts for 60 to 70% of market value.

A shares and institutional investors and market capitalization ratio is only about 12%.

Small and medium-sized investors also fell sharply last year due to the stock market crash. By the end of August, there were 47 million 350 thousand investors with less than 500 thousand yuan of funds, accounting for 95.24% of the total holders of 49 million 750 thousand of the total holdings. Investors under 100 thousand yuan accounted for 32 million 390 thousand households, accounting for 67.7% of the holders; 100 thousand to 500 thousand investors had only 15 million households.

The shortage of funds and the lack of new capital inflow will make it difficult to sustain the 37 trillion market capitalization.

Therefore, it is suggested that the national team should stop the reduction, and the pension and enterprise annuity will enter the market as early as possible.

U.S.A

The reason for the smooth rise is that the third index is the index of constituent stocks.

Like the Dow Jones index, 30 high-quality sample stocks were selected as the index statistical parameters.

The S & P 500 index takes 500 high-quality sample stocks as the index statistical parameters. The Japanese stock market takes 225 sample stocks as the index statistical parameters, and the Hongkong stock market takes 33 sample stocks as the index statistical parameters.

The Shanghai composite index is the statistical parameter of the weighted average of all stocks.

In the composition of the Shanghai stock index, the 40% weight is the growth of the super large bank stocks, coupled with the petrochemical double male and the Chinese stock market, the stock of the cyclical industry accounts for more than 60% of the index weight.

At present, China's economy is in the process of structural adjustment, and it is carrying out the reform of supply side, which can go to capacity, stock and surplus.

Most of the large cap stocks of these cyclical industries have entered the recession and adjustment period, and their performance is difficult to act as a result.

Recently, people saw that because the Shanghai stock index was stagnant and sluggish, the amplitude of the day was only 10 points, which reached a new low of 14 years, which seriously depressed the popularity of the market and led to the weakening of the Shenzhen stock index, small and medium-sized board and gem.

We can take a comparison with the four indexes in September 23rd last year and September 23rd this year: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.64% from 3115 points to 3033 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.7% from 10132 to 10609 points, and the small and medium board rose from 10049 to 11677 points, and the growth enterprise market rose from 2077 point to 2077 point in September 23rd.

This shows that the weighted average Shanghai composite index performance is far worse than the other three indexes taking the constituent stock as the statistical parameter.

Let's look at the Shanghai stock index performance of Liu Shiyu, the new chairman of the SFC, who took office for 7 months: from 2860 points in February 20th - 3033 in September 23rd and 173 points in 7 months, on average, it rose 24 points per month, averaging only 1.2 points a day.

This is also a rare spectacle in the stock market in the past 26 years.

Therefore, it is reasonable to propose that the management should resume the Shanghai Stock Index 30 or pform the sample shares of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index to replace the Shanghai stock index.

In my opinion, once the stocks of emerging industries return to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and enter the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock market, then the Shanghai stock index, representing China's stock market, will be in line with the international market and get a new look. It can reflect the pformation of the industry, and is helpful to improve the flexibility and vitality of the stock market, and to arouse the popularity of the stock market and the attraction of the stock market.

If the 7 year index of the US stock market has increased 3 times, it is achieved by the quantitative easing monetary policy (QE1, QE2, QE3) and the appreciation of the dollar. Then, the European and Japanese stock markets are realized by the depreciation of the euro and yen, plus the quantitative easing monetary policy and the negative interest rate policy.

However, the decline of China's stock market in recent one or two years is closely related to the devaluation of the RMB.

This leads to the continuous flow of funds in the field to resist the depreciation of the real estate market, or to convert into US dollars or to foreign countries.

But the problem is that China's central bank has not taken quantitative easing policy to match it, resulting in insufficient capital supply in the stock market.

Although a large number of funds have the tendency to "get rid of the real to the virtual", they do not flow to the stock market, but to buy financial products or deposit savings.

For example, at the end of July, the M1 balance that reflected the current savings of enterprises and individuals was 44 trillion and 300 billion, which increased to 45 trillion and 450 billion at the end of August. The scissors difference between M1 and M2 in July and August was as high as 15.2 and 12.6, but the stock market was still in the doldrums. Traditionally, when the scissors were more than 10%, the financial practices of the stock market would break out.

It can be seen that the central bank's monetary policy lacks effective support for the stock market.

Of course, there are three disadvantages of China's stock market.

At present, the market has already digested the bad profits, and the latter is not high enough to hinder the upward trend of the market.

For example, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 13 - 14 in December, and the stock market gained a 3 month neutral zone.

For example, if the stock market serves poor areas, it is only six months after it will be possible for those enterprises in the poverty-stricken areas to be listed and audited through the annual report audit and approved by the SFC.

The reasons for not being pessimistic are:

First, because the national team of 2 trillion funds has locked a large number of heavyweights, plus President Liu Shiyu's implementation of "strong supervision, steady market and slow innovation", the index is unlikely to be skyrocketing.

Second, A shares have entered a new era and new form.

As the market did not skyrocket and plunge, the amplitude of the day reached a new low of 14 years. With the control of the national team, all the effective technical analysis methods, such as wave length, streak, shape analysis, graphic analysis (such as island flip, etc.), and the deduction of the price range after breaking through the key points, all failed one by one. On the other hand, after 2638 points were identified, every 100 points would be carried out for a long time to finish the platform.

For example, the 2800 point platform closed for 41 days, the 2900 point platform closed for 53 days, and the 3000 point platform closed for 43 days. The index moved slowly up platform, sideways and grinding bottom, and has become a new normal.

As a result, people fear that the index can no longer be plunged, which has certain advantages to eliminate the sequel of the 3 round of stock market crash.

Third, there are plenty of good news in the afternoon.

MSCI will launch 20 new indexes by the end of September. When A shares are included in MSCI, there will be a large number of international value investors entering the market, or bringing more than ten billion yuan of funds, and driving the market out of a certain level of market.

In August, the growth of major financial data exceeded expectations, and scissors decreased slightly.

It shows that money supply is still in a relatively stable range, which is also an important factor for the stock market to resist falling.

The macroeconomic fundamentals remained stable. In August, the official PMI index rose sharply to 50.4%, the highest in 22 months.

While the CPI has slipped in the same period, PPI has picked up faster than the central bank.

The famous international investment bank Goldman Sachs Group raised the investment rating of China's stock market to "over matching (buy)" in September 12th.

Subsequently, many international options investors began to sing more A shares from the technical level.

The CBRC allows banks to participate in equity investment in scientific and technological innovation, and the super VC of the national team is coming into force, which is conducive to the pformation of commercial banks' business and the improvement of profitability.

Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will announce the opening date in early November.

The central bank injected 9 into the market this week to 900 billion or 9 trading days.

The positive fiscal policy encourages local governments to step up steadily and step up the more than 570 PPP projects.

Trillions of capital projects started.

Safe said it supports the return of stocks in compliance.

This week, the volume of volume reached a daily average of 373 billion.

The KDJ index entered the 34, 33 and 35 lows and crossed gold.

The index is only 10 points from the five week average, and is expected to recover next week.

One is the PPP concept stocks.

Under the active fiscal policy, the NDRC has launched the third batch of more than 1200 PPP projects, and 574 central and local governments and private capital have been selected, with a total amount of 1 trillion.

The certificate companies and Huijin companies in the national team have focused on 13 listed companies.

Once officially launched, the stock market will have a larger and more durable impetus.

The two is the reform of central enterprises.

After nearly three months' suspension, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group also announced that they would issue A shares to all shareholders of the Wuhan Iron and Steel Group and exchange shares to absorb Wuhan Iron and Steel shares.

This year is the year of the reform of state-owned enterprises, from top level design to help state-owned enterprises reform.

The pfer of shares between state-owned assets and cross exchange between central enterprises has become a new mode of the current round of state-owned enterprise reform.

It will play a positive role in stabilizing the market.

For example, Chinese medicine, whose stock price is constantly refreshing, is the leader of the reform of the central enterprises. The injection of high-quality assets is expected to be strong, and the share price continues to oscillate upward.

The three is local state-owned assets reform stocks.

As the SFC reorganized the new regulation to abolish the freezing period of 3--6 months after the termination of the reorganization of the listed company, it changed to 1 months. It is estimated that in October, the reform of state owned assets in Shanghai will accelerate.

In October 6th, it was the expiry date of the original "3 months' no reorganization".

It has been two months since the 6 months' non reorganization of the trade and industry has been in conformity with the new regulation of 1 months in the freezing period. Plus, 90% of its bad assets have been stripped and turned into a shell.

The three Ai Fu, who is backdoor listed by the Chinese language and development group, will resume trading after the National Day holiday. According to the prescribed time limit, the 13.8 yuan suspension price will be as high as 20.26 yuan after the asset revaluation.

Haili shares have been running in large quantities recently, and the operation of large funds has been active, which has led to the market's imagination of its national reform movement.

These four cases that may become a fuse have been clearly reflected in this week's surface. After the national day, the impetus for the reform of Shanghai's state owned assets will be formed, which deserves people's close attention.

The state-owned enterprise reform and reorganization subject shares also show fervent: if the major shareholder of state owned major shareholder intends to get rid of the difficulties of the Xiangyang bearing, the reorganization is expected to be strong, the recent continuous release of the historical amount, the stock price pulls up frequently, the short line band has huge opportunities, and if the ST has been reorganized, it will pour 7 of the about 70000000000 financial assets into the big shareholder oil.

Four, private enterprises asset restructuring, pformation and upgrading stocks.

This week, two "ST" and "ST" Heng Li both strong trend, also led to other successful ST asset restructuring stocks have been determined to limit.

The five is the stock return concept stocks.

Safe has made clear its support.

It is estimated that in October, the relevant normative opinions will be officially launched.

Their arrival will not only activate a large number of concept stocks in Shanghai stock market, but will also enter the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks in the future, injecting new industry blood into Shanghai stock index, and changing the Shanghai stock index being dominated by traditional industries, thereby activating the Shanghai stock index and benefit the Chinese stock market.