Interpretation Of The Five Expected Differences In The Stock Market Today

At the beginning of the new year, the stock market suffered unprecedented scare: first, the people's daily authority's seven questions seven answers, should vigorously promote the supply side structural reform, rather than as in the past through stimulating demand to pull the economy.

Moreover, it is clear that the future economic trend will be L.

In this way, it is natural to think that this year's monetary policy should not be looser or even tighter than last year.

The stock price should reflect all information.

The long-term problem of stock market and economic existence is not seen by investors, nor is it not reflected in stock prices at all.

Just because these short-term expectations are bad, they are beneficial to the stock market.

Perhaps, after some time, there will be new expectations, and the market will be so changeable.

The content of the article has not yet been digested, and the central bank immediately lowered the middle price of the RMB exchange rate, which greatly strengthened the expected depreciation of the local currency.

The so-called "one wave" is not yet smooth.

Then comes the fusing mechanism that has just come into force.

As a result, the stock market has chosen to decline rapidly, even if it later suspended the fusing mechanism.

Price rises in the first tier cities, gold and other precious metals prices are rising. These are attracting funds out of the stock market.

This can be seen from the decline of the financing balance in the stock market.

However, when so many bad factors gather together to play a strong role, the downward trend of stock prices has more or less reflected these negative factors.

We thought that the profit of a stock was 2 hundred million, but the actual announcement was 3 hundred million. This is the positive expectation difference, which will cause the stock price to rise. On the contrary, if the actual announcement is only 1 hundred million, the reverse expectation difference will cause the share price to fall.

From the beginning of this year, we can easily find that many pessimistic expectations have not appeared, or even some have been reversed, which means that the favorable factors for the stock market are increasing.

In my incomplete summary, there are generally five expectations.

At the end of last year, many economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates 4 times this year.

After that, many analysts adjusted the rate of interest increase to 2 times. Now, some people even think that interest rates will not rise this year, because the global economy is very poor.

Recently, the ECB has cut interest rates again, but the US dollar index has not risen or fallen, which has greatly relieved the pressure of RMB depreciation.

At the beginning of the year, everyone thought that the depreciation rate of RMB would be very large this year, and a large amount of foreign exchange would flow out.

Today, the central bank not only strengthens the exchange rate control, but also controls the exchange and outflow of foreign currencies.

Although expectations for long-term devaluation of the renminbi still exist, the RMB exchange rate is now rising again, and it is also effective to curb short-term impulse of residents' swap or stock market backflow.

Three, monetary policy prediction is poor.

The supply side reform is usually a tight currency, as is the supply side reform in Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom.

However, the central bank lowered its target rate in the end of 2 and raised the target of M2 growth to 13% this year, which should be the first increase target in 09 years.

Recently, the interest rate of MLF has been lowered.

Monetary policy is actually flexible and loose.

Four, the expected difference in economic growth rate.

Originally thought that the GDP growth in the first quarter would be very poor, because the stock market was hot in the first quarter of last year, and the contribution of finance to GDP growth reached 30%. This year's contribution to finance will certainly be much worse.

But in the first two months of the data, power generation increased, real estate development investment and fixed asset investment growth picked up.

In particular, the growth rate of service industry mentioned by Premier Keqiang was 8%.

Therefore, the probability that the economy picked up in the two quarter seems to have increased.

The pause of the fusing mechanism can not be regarded as the expected difference now, because it happened in January.

However, the registration system was once again cleared and postponed.

Because most investors are worried about the release of the stock market, which has a great impact on share prices.

What is even more surprising is that the 13th Five-Year plan of the state did not put Shanghai's strategic emerging board in it.

Although there are all kinds of explanations, it is, after all, a request made by the SFC.

Moreover, during the two sessions, the main leaders of the regulatory authorities also made it clear that the national team would not withdraw from the market.

All these reflect the good intentions of management to care for the stock market, and these hard intentions are real gold and silver.

Of course, it is not because of these poor expectations that the fundamentals of the stock market have radically changed, or brought about great changes to the Chinese economy.

The long term problems of stock market and economy have not been solved, and some have been seeking short-term stability through intensified regulation. They are anesthetic rather than good medicine.