The "Ten Policy Of Security" For Economic Hardships Is Coming.

Monetary policy has changed money but not credit. The problem lies in bank omission, and fiscal policy can not pform investment into projects. The problem lies in "officials" inaction. Officials here include broad government, state-owned enterprises and institutions.

The traditional "incentive compatibility" mechanism weakened or even disappeared. The original government governance system and officialdom rules changed, and the economic operation mechanism centered on the "local government championship" was broken.

The Langya pavilion has a brilliant idea for the world, and the South China Sea maintains a new normal.

There is no need to argue about questions and doctrines.

Officials or advisers should solve the immediate problems.

So, what is the problem?

First, the supply is insufficient.

We are facing not only the lack of demand and oversupply during the great depression, but also because we see that the supply of infrastructure in the service sector, high-end manufacturing, the central and western regions and the rural areas is still seriously insufficient. Many people go overseas for the purpose of buying a favorite insurance or even a sanitary toilet lid. Many so-called first-class cities often become watertowns after the storm.

This shortage can not be solved simply by Keynes doctrine from the demand side.

Two, lack of demand.

However, what we are facing is not only the insufficient supply and overheated demand during the stagflation period, because we can see that the overcapacity of traditional industries is still serious. PPI has been in negative growth for 43 consecutive months, and coal, steel and cement enterprises are suffering.

This surplus can not be solved simply by Reagan economics.

We need to abandon the prejudice of "left" and "right", draw lessons from the political wisdom of Guan Zhong, Sang Hongyang, Wang Anshi, Zhang Juzheng and other western scholars from history, and also absorb the theoretical essence of western scholars such as Keynes, monetarism and supply doctrine, and balance the relationship between demand side expansion and supply side reform.

From stagflation to moderation, from great moderation to great adjustment, the ancients were not seen before, but later did not see them.

Krugman, the American economist, has said that the only sample of economists is history. Langya's cabinet has its own portfolio.

Find problems in reality and find answers in history.

Based on this, we put forward the "ten policy of public order" to get out of the current economic difficulties.

[1] encourage officials to rebuild incentive compatibility mechanism and promote modernization of national governance.

Anti corruption has broken the original incentive compatibility mechanism in the operation of the government and led officials to slack off.

There is nothing wrong with anti-corruption. The problem is lagging behind the supporting reforms.

It's like a game that eliminates birds that can't fly, but it doesn't release the birds from the cage. The result is that birds can't fly.

The next step should be to release the potential of birds by supporting reforms.

(1) establish a performance oriented management system for public servants, including civil servants, state-owned enterprises and public institutions.

High salaries do not necessarily maintain honesty, and low wages do not necessarily mean laziness. The key is to make remuneration and preparation float up and break the iron rice bowl.

Singapore's Meritocracy system provides useful experience.

(2) reform the financial relationship between the central and local governments and stimulate the enthusiasm of local governments.

The fiscal and taxation system formed by the reform of tax sharing system has been gradually highlighted.

In the first place, we should appropriately expand the right of local governments to control the existing financial funds.

Expand the pfer payment to local finance and increase the proportion of general pfer payment.

Two, we should appropriately increase the proportion of local fiscal revenue.

A new local tax category, such as the real estate tax, should be appropriately expanded to share the local financial share in the share tax.

[two strategy] deregulation, greatly reducing the threshold of service industry, and breaking through the bottleneck of supply with market forces.

The service industry is the dual stabilizer of China's economy and society in the future.

On the one hand, we must stabilize the economy and stabilize employment on the other hand.

According to the statistics of the past two years, the National Bureau of statistics has concluded that the third industry can create about 1 million jobs per 1 percentage points, which is about 500 thousand more than that of the industry.

The bottleneck of the development of the service industry is not the lack of demand, but the shortage of supply. The next step must be solved through the opening of the supply side: (1) the opening of the financial industry.

The capital market will further open to foreign investors, relax the proportion of foreign investment in the financial industry, relax the license control in banking industry, allow mixed operation, and (2) marketization of education.

Public school teachers and staff members failed to get market income and lack effective incentive mechanism.

Next, we should expand the autonomy of schools and the right to run social capital; promote the cooperation between private and public schools through the way of government purchasing services; and develop private educational groups.

(3) medical privatization.

Local governments can get rid of the financial burden, social capital can get new investment channels, realize profits through the industrial chain, and hospital personnel can get market income and get more at one stroke.

The three strategy is to expand the fiscal system, raise the deficit and reduce taxes, and solve the matching between production and demand from the demand side.

The nominal "positive fiscal policy" is not "positive" at all. Its root lies in the decline in revenue and the budgetary deficit rate.

Although the deficit target of 2015 has increased to 2.3%, it is still far below the international warning level of 3%, which is also significantly lower than our 2009-2010 year level and the next step is to continue to expand the deficit.

(1) expand the scale of government debt issuance.

From the perspective of the central government, special treasury bonds and special treasury bonds can be issued. Special financial bonds, as a special special treasury bond, can continue to expand.

From the point of view of local governments, we can enlarge the main gate, raise the amount of local debt issuance, and reform the supporting system.

(2) massive tax cuts.

The core of Reagan economics's response to stagflation is massive tax cuts.

One is to lower the personal income tax rate, the highest tax rate in China is 45%, which is higher than most countries.

The two is to raise the proportion of direct taxation and reduce duplication of taxes.

The three is the index of personal income tax.

The four is to accelerate depreciation of fixed assets.

The five is the pformation of taxonomy to the combination of classification and classification.

The essence of the economic crisis is "excess". If we do not solve the problem of excess capacity, we will not be able to get out of the crisis.

Many decision-makers have gone to the color change of production capacity. They think that capacity is "broken", which means smashing machines, pouring milk and social unrest. But in fact, capacity is also "established". Through mergers and acquisitions, we can effectively alleviate the pains of capacity and rebuild the vitality of enterprises.

Combined with international experience and China's dilemma, the government can look for new breakthroughs in the following aspects: (1) to promote the reorganization and reorganization of the big giants, it can start with the integration of central enterprises.

From the experience of the United States, Japan and South Korea, the process of resolving excess capacity must be accompanied by the integration of industry oligarchs and the emergence of super giants, either big or big.

(2) reduce paction costs of mergers and acquisitions.

Streamline the relevant legal process and links, and reduce the time cost of mergers and acquisitions.

Regulators are empowered to reduce administrative approval.

(3) give play to the financing, pricing and regulatory functions of the financial system, especially the capital market.

(4) implementing pitional protection to win time for mergers and acquisitions.

Before M & A to form new profit point, the government can implement certain industrial protection.

[five strategy] stabilize the housing market, organize the Chinese version of the housing bank, revitalize the stock and benefit people's stock.

Real estate should neither be sanctified nor demonized.

In the short term, China's economy is unstable when real estate is unstable.

In the medium to long term, China's current urbanization rate is only 55%, and a considerable number of people do not meet the basic housing needs.

For the government, real estate is not only an economic issue, but also a livelihood issue. We must find ways to support reasonable housing demand, and the most important thing is credit financing support.

(1) set up a Chinese version of housing bank as soon as possible.

Through buying real estate mortgage loans of commercial banks, we can revitalize credit assets stock, improve the structure of assets and liabilities of commercial banks and improve their willingness to lend.

(2) change the supply mode of affordable housing, purchase stock, and speed up the inventory digestion of commercial housing.

(3) correct the distortion of the real estate market system.

First, increase the proportion of residential land in urban development and reduce the cost of housing; the two is to reform the household registration system, so that migrant workers separated from households can truly realize urbanization and remove obstacles for rational housing demand.

The six strategy is to promote PPP and improve investment environment, and the government will make profits to social capital.

Through PPP and mixed ownership, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation between government capital and social capital, or more accurately, to give profits to the social capital, which is an inevitable choice to deal with the current economic difficulties in China.

For China, privatization of state-owned enterprises is not realistic, more realistic is through mixed ownership, and PPP is actually an important form of mixed ownership.

(1) clarify the top-level design and leadership mechanism of PPP at the central level.

The PPP leading group is set up at the State Council level, and the office can be set up in the Ministry of finance or the NDRC.

(2) improve the relevant legal system and improve the environment of PPP system.

straighten up

In order to protect the interests of social capital in the form of legislation, problems such as financial commitment and budgetary convergence.

(3) invest in financial funds to carry out the feasibility analysis of the project.

Through the investment of financial funds to the project to carry out a scientific feasibility analysis, reduce the cost of enterprise participation, and expand the subject of project participation.

(4) provide policy support for investment and financing of PPP projects.

It can provide financing support for PPP projects by providing credit preferences, project income securitization, issuing project income bonds and so on.

[seven strategy] pformation of science and technology, the establishment of national research centers, and the establishment of the overall industrial chain of industry, University and research capital market.

China's R&D investment accounts for 2.01% of GDP, but it still has a big gap with 4% countries, such as Korea and Finland.

On the one hand, technological innovation requires market driven incentives in the capital market. On the other hand, it cannot be separated from the integration and support of the government, especially in the short time tackling key scientific research projects.

Referring to the experience of the "revitalization of manufacturing strategy" in the United States, it is suggested that an independent national research and innovation center should be established on the basis of the existing Chinese Academy of Sciences and other national research institutes and institutions of higher learning.

(1) source of funds: the combination of government funding and market financing can start from the government's full investment and then gradually decrease.

(2) management mode: the government and the market should establish a joint leadership Committee and adopt a market-oriented management mode.

(3) layout according to local endowments and technological advantages.

[eight strategies] hold on

The crux of the failure of monetary policy lies in the reluctance of commercial banks to lend money. The crux of commercial banks' credit crunch lies in bad assets.

The present commercial banking system is like a cancer patient (the bad asset is his cancer cell).

The doctor's prescription is to strictly control the proliferation of cancer cells (regulators strictly control bad assets, assess the rate of non-performing assets), and patients (commercial banks) also eat all kinds of substances that may cause cancer from the panic.

This method seems undisputable, but in fact, this method can only be used to prevent. Now that the cancer cells have been generated, it will accelerate the deterioration of the patient's constitution and form a vicious circle.

Suggestions: (1) regulators and bank management should increase the tolerance of risk, play the role of counter cyclical regulation and control, and do not strengthen the credit crunch mood of banks.

(2) increase the intensity of bad debt cancellation and speed up.

(3) set up a local Asset Management Co to divestiture toxic assets and learn from the experience of RTC and China's four largest Asset Management Co.

(4) replenish bank capital through various ways, such as the central bank's reduction, allowing commercial banks to subscribe special treasury bonds, then replenish capital or issue preferred shares by banks.

(5) accelerating the asset securitization of non-performing assets (NPAS).

The downward trend of the economy has been unable to support rigid payment. The disadvantages are becoming increasingly prominent: crowding out effect, distorting the allocation of funds, alienation financing needs, pushing up financing costs, and swallowing corporate profits.

South Korea is the most successful and decisive country to break the rigid payment, and draw lessons from their experience: (1) first, seize the opportunity of the crisis, and push the reform to break down.

China missed the chance of 2008 and can't miss 2015.

(2) catch the example to kill the big ones, and let the big but not fail enterprises fall down.

South Korea once used second major chaebol Daewoo Group to operate. China can also find one or two tycoons to be typical.

(3) establish a complete social security cushion to prevent secondary social crises, such as deposit insurance system.

(4) to accelerate the annexation and reorganization of bankrupt enterprises, we must "break" and "erect".

[nine policy] make rules, take the initiative to open two times, and strengthen the influence on international rules.

Historically, once an economy reaches the top of the world, from passive openness to active openness is inevitable: (1) actively reforming the multilateral trading system.

On the one hand, we should speed up the bilateral free trade agreement and FTA, especially the free trade agreement between China and Japan and Korea.

On the other hand, we should speed up the construction of multilateral trade agreements and trade zones, such as the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP).

(2) actively reforming multilateral financial institutions.

China now needs its own financial position and must push ahead with the reform of the existing international financial system.

First, speed up the reform of the voting rights of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, and reform the veto power of the United States.

The two is to speed up the construction of international investment and financing platforms such as Asian infrastructure investment banks, silk road funds, BRICs banks and SCO banks.

[ten strategies] active thinking, wide open speech, encouraging speech, activating the ideological market, and building social consensus.

At all times and in all countries, any successful government is bound to open wide doors and share ideas.

Letting a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend is a necessary condition for economic and social progress.

In the past, Kirin talents in the Langya Pavilion provided brilliant ideas for the monarch, and now there should be experts and scholars from think tanks offering advice for the government.

China needs not only the "leader of the left side of the river", but also many "Langya Pavilion" and a group of "kylin talents".

(1) improve the inclusiveness of the official think tanks, break the barriers of the ministries and interests, break the shackles of the administrative establishment; (2) vigorously develop folk think tanks, and support the tax and talent policies of the private think tanks.