2015 China'S Textile Exports Will Show Five Major Situations.

Under the background of the slow growth of the world economy, consumption and investment demand in various countries is generally sluggish, and the growth momentum of international trade is insufficient, and China's foreign trade situation is grim.

2015 China

What trends will the export show? Let's take a look with Xiaobian.

1, differentiation of major economies

At present, the world economy is still in the deep adjustment period after the international financial crisis, with limited growth power and obvious economic differences among countries.

The recovery of the US economy has made some progress, and the endogenous driving force is gradually emerging.

The economy has entered a steady growth range.

The eurozone is still plagued by high unemployment and fiscal consolidation, and there is no obvious rebound in economic growth.

Japan's easing monetary policy has diminishing its stimulus effect, with unclear prospects for structural reform and sustained low economic growth.

The division of monetary policy in the major developed economies has prompted the US dollar to continue to appreciate, and the relative yield of US dollar assets has increased substantially, which has led to an increase in the risk premium of the global financial market, especially the expansion of abnormal international capital flows and the aggravation of the international exchange rate fluctuations, which will have an impact on China's economic stability and are not conducive to China's export trade.

It is estimated that in 2015, the export growth of China's textiles to the developed economies in Europe and the United States will remain low or negative growth. At the same time, it is reminded that textile export enterprises are concerned about the fluctuation risk of the US dollar exchange rate.

Under the dual influence of the external environment and the adjustment of internal economic structure, the economic growth of the emerging economies is slowing down, but the overall growth rate is still faster than that of the developed countries. Especially in India, the implementation of the reform has achieved results and the economic growth rate has exceeded 7%.

However, the structural contradictions of many emerging economies are still outstanding, and industrial upgrading is difficult. Under the background of the appreciation of the US dollar, emerging economies are facing new pressure of capital outflow, the turbulence of capital market is aggravated, the financial risk is rising, and the trend of economic growth and deceleration is hard to be reversed in the short term.

In the 2014 cotton textile trade, cotton textiles in some Southeast Asian and African countries declined to varying degrees. In 2015, the pressure of foreign trade in China's emerging textile market still existed.

3, the volatility of commodity prices intensified.

Since the second half of 2014, the international market prices of oil and other energy and resources products have dropped sharply. The decline in commodity prices is the result of a combination of low demand, the release of investment capacity in the early stage of investment and the appreciation of the dollar. These factors will not change radically in the short term.

First, because demand for consumption and investment is not strong, demand for commodities is recovering slowly; secondly, the US dollar is strong, capital risk preferences and investment hot spots have shifted, and the commodity market is seriously losing blood and suppressing commodity prices.

Third, oversupply is also an important reason for the fall in commodity prices. Slow growth in demand for commodities has restrained the expansion of production capacity to a certain extent.

International commodity prices will remain weak for a short time in the future, of which international cotton prices are likely to descend. Textile enterprises need to be accurate in purchasing cotton imports.

4, trade protectionism is surging.

In the economic downturn, some countries have used the exchange rate as an important tool to boost exports and stimulate economic growth, forcing the currency to depreciate, resulting in a passive and substantial appreciation of the renminbi, which has seriously affected the competitiveness of China's exports in the international market.

In addition, some trade agreements discriminate and exclude more products from the countries outside the agreement, forming the barriers of these rules, resulting in greater benefits of trade pfer, which may affect the market share of the countries outside the agreement in the FTA member countries.

According to the CEPR, a UK think tank, more than 1/4 of global protectionist measures has an impact on China's exports, including Chinese textiles.

5, export competition is fierce.

Despite the slowdown in Global trade, China's export competitiveness is facing double challenges.

In the high-end industry, the developed economies take advantage of technology and talent to seize the forefront of emerging technologies, promote "re industrialization" and expand the international market.

Over the past five years, the US export volume has increased by 9% annually, and the EU's export volume has increased by 8.2% annually, all over the global export growth.

In the middle and low end industries, the neighboring emerging economies have introduced preferential investment policies with the advantage of low cost of labor, land and other production factors, taking the initiative to undertake the pfer of processing and manufacturing industries and promoting the rapid growth of exports.

Over the past five years, India's export volume has increased by 14.2% annually and ASEAN's exports have increased by 9.8% annually.

As far as China's textile industry is concerned, the export of high-end export industries, such as textile equipment and clothing brands, is facing greater competition pressure from developed countries, while middle and low end export industries such as conventional textile intermediates are facing up to the periphery emerging economies.