On The Last Day Of The Renminbi, It Was Suspected That The "Heavy Hand Intervention" Was Going Up.

On Wednesday (March 18th), Selena Ling and Emmanuel Ng, an overseas Chinese bank analyst, pointed out in the latest report that the offshore and offshore renminbi rose strongly on the previous trading day, and suspected that there was a "heavy hand intervention" in the onshore market, which triggered a short complement.

In addition, on Tuesday (March 17th), China's central bank (PBOC) unexpectedly reversed in the conventional open market operation. Repo rate Lowering the 10 base points relieved the bond market.

Recently, due to the high interest rate in money market, equity market China's bond market has been under pressure.

At present, the offshore renminbi has risen by 0.21% to 6.2365 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, offshore renminbi has risen 0.13% to 6.2390 against the US dollar, and the 7 day repo rate has fallen 5 basis points to 4.5599%.

In addition, 4.13% of coupon expires in September 2024. Treasury yields Down 2 basis points to 3.52%.

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Beijing Goldman's Yacov Arnopolin said in early March 18th, Goldman Sachs has been short of Renminbi for several months, and China's negative PPI, export competitors' currency devaluation and capital outflow and other factors have dragged down the depreciation of the renminbi.

Since the Central Bank of China (micro-blog) cut interest rates in November 2014, the yuan has continued to depreciate against the US dollar. In addition to the Fed's rate hike expectations, the US dollar has also been boosted by the massive quantitative easing (QE) policy implemented in Japan and the euro area. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to remove two words of patience in this week's conference statement, which will raise interest rates in September. The US dollar index broke 100 last Friday, the highest since April 2003.

Meanwhile, due to the accelerated decline in fiscal revenue, Deutsche Bank expects China to start easing in April, including fiscal and monetary policies. Although China has cut interest rates two times in recent months, Zhang Zhiwei, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, believes that the real easing cycle has not started and the policy stance has been tight since the real interest rate and the 7 day repo rate after the rate cut are still at a high level.

The Swiss bank said it expects the Central Bank of China to cut interest rates 2-3 times this year by 50-75 basis points. It is expected that China will reduce its first suite mortgage ratio from 30% to 20% later this year.

With the promotion of China's easing interest rate easing policy, the renminbi will further depreciate against the US dollar in the future.