Will The Renminbi Be Decoupled From The US Dollar?

As the US dollar continues to rise, whether the RMB exchange rate is necessary to decouple from the US dollar has become a hot topic among many hedge fund managers.

A hedge fund manager has analyzed that the linkage between the RMB and the US dollar has become meaningless, because the slowdown in global economic recovery is not necessarily optimistic about China's export situation, and the growth rate of China's GDP is slowing down. If the RMB exchange rate is pegged to the continued appreciation of the US dollar, it will undoubtedly add to the worsening situation of China's commodity exports and economic growth.

According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), although the RMB exchange rate declined against the US dollar last year, the RMB's exchange rate remained "pegged" to the US dollar, making the renminbi's appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the basket of currencies, such as the euro and yen, still about 6.24%.

"If the US dollar index increased by about 16% as we did last year, and whether the RMB pegged to the US dollar can withstand such a high passive appreciation rate will have much negative impact on China's commodity exports and economic growth, which is a factor that the Central Bank of China has to consider." The hedge fund manager told reporters. Once the RMB is decoupled from the US dollar, it means that the price of the RMB exchange rate needs to increase the proportion of a basket of non US currencies such as the euro and yen. Considering that these non US currencies are continuing to depreciate, it will eventually trigger a great decline in the RMB exchange rate.

It is based on the expectation that the RMB may be decoupled from the US dollar. His hedge fund began buying the RMB exchange rate option derivatives with a price of more than 6.5, and boldly bet on the sharp decline in the RMB exchange rate.

Meanwhile, analysts at Merrill Lynch and Merrill Lynch estimated that in 2015, depreciation The chance of 10% is 30%.

A foreign exchange trader in a large domestic bank believes that the Central Bank of China is more likely to adopt a moderate approach to adjust the middle price of the US dollar against the dollar, so that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in one place. Reasonable interval 。

According to the central bank's regulation, the daily trading price of RMB against the US dollar in the domestic onshore market can fluctuate within 2% of the daily price of the RMB against the US dollar, which means that the setting of the RMB's intermediate price will indirectly affect the devaluation extent of the recent RMB.

In the view of domestic bank foreign exchange traders, the central bank did not substantially adjust the US dollar to the renminbi after the Spring Festival. Middle price It seems that it intends to stabilize the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate.

He believes that the central bank may set up a broader range of RMB exchange rate fluctuation management, such as allowing the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate wide two-way fluctuation between 6.2-6.4, which can ensure that the RMB depreciates moderately against the US dollar, does not cause the capital outflow surge, and can slow down the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar and other non US Basket Currencies, create a favorable external environment for commodity export and RMB internationalization, and then promote China's transformation from an export-oriented economy to a consumer oriented economy.