PTA Is Neither Hot Nor Cold.

First, the correlation between PTA and the price of upstream raw materials and the correlation between PTA price and current price are analyzed.

Crude oil is the upstream source of PTA. In January 2014, the correlation coefficient between PTA futures price and crude oil price was 0.90, which is a strong positive correlation.

and

It is the raw material for direct production of PTA.

The correlation coefficient between futures price and PX import price is 0.99, which is a strong positive correlation.

The above data show that the impact of crude oil prices on PTA prices is not as great as that of PX.

From January 29th to February 6th, the largest increase in crude oil prices in New York was close to 20%, while the largest increase in PX was only 11.62% during the same period. This partly explains why the resilience of PTA is significantly weaker than that of LLDPE and PP when crude oil rebounded sharply.

In addition, PTA futures price and

There is a strong positive correlation between the correlation coefficient of 0.98.

Since December 2014, the spot price of PTA has shown a premium on futures prices, and the average value of spot discount is more than 200 yuan / ton during this period, which has greatly delayed the pace of PTA's rebound.

Secondly, we make a horizontal comparative analysis from the linkage between the price of related varieties and the price of crude oil.

From the closing price from January 2, 2014 to February 6, 2015, the positive correlation between LLDPE price and crude oil price is stronger than that of PTA price and crude oil price, and the correlation coefficients are 0.99 and 0.90 respectively.

There are two reasons for the correlation: first, there is a difference between the spot lift and the discount of the PTA, and the spot price of the LLDPE is different from the spot price of the PTA. The average spot price of LLDPE in 2014 is higher than that of the futures price, and the average spot price of LLDPE in the month of 2014 is 722 yuan / ton. Recently, with the LLDPE price rebounded, the spot price has been convergent, but the spot price is still rising at 400 yuan / ton, the spot premium can help to rise and fall, and the spot premium will help to fall down. The two is the difference of the supply pattern between them. The new capacity of LLDPE is estimated to be 2 million 300 thousand tons, the total capacity will be increased to 16 million 980 thousand tons, the supply pattern is initially defined relatively loosely, but there is a serious surplus situation in the supply of PTA, the total capacity in 2015 will reach 51 million 550 thousand tons, and the starting rate will be reduced to 62%. Recently, the correlation between PTA and crude oil is weaker than that of LLDPE and crude oil.

These two factors are short-term factors and long-term factors. The reasons for the recent strong PTA weakness of LLDPE are explained from different periods.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that in the short term, PTA will continue to be volatile.

From the technical point of view, the short-term support position of the PTA main 1505 contract is near 4700 yuan / ton, the pressure level is 4800 - 4850 yuan / ton, and the trading strategy suggests that the bargain should be short.

What needs special hints is that before the period price breaks through the 60 day moving average effectively, it will be more prudent to hold and to cash in the profits. If the price breaks through the 60 day moving average, it may increase the quantity more appropriately, but the position should not exceed 30%.