RMB Spot Exchange Rate Rebounded Significantly

On Tuesday (January 6th), there was a marked rebound in the spot exchange rate of RMB on Tuesday (January 6th) after a substantial decline in the intermediate price and spot exchange rate on the first trading day.

Basically stable.

After the weak performance on the first trading day of the year, the RMB exchange rate has shown signs of stabilization.

On the 6 day, the interbank foreign exchange market's central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1256 yuan, a slight 8 basis points lower than the previous day, which is the second consecutive trading day's weakening of the middle price. However, it still maintained a narrow pattern of fluctuation around the 6.12 line since mid December last year.

Spot

On the 6 day of trading, the RMB traded against the US dollar at a low price and closed at 6.2130, up 70 basis points or 0.11% from the previous day.

On the whole, the recent RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the 6.21 line has expanded a wide range of shocks.

Market participants said that during the 5 day of the new year's long holidays,

After further strengthening and the negative impact of China's weak economic data in December last year, the strength of foreign exchange market selling and selling is relatively balanced on the 6 day.

If the US dollar index does not continue to rise sharply in the coming period, and the strength of oil purchase is not too strong, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate trend will remain unchanged.

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Xie Dongming, an economist with overseas Chinese Bank of Singapore, believes that the risk of RMB depreciation will still exist in the short term, but the space will not be too large and will remain in the controllable range.

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar should be between us $1 and US $6.1 to 6.3 yuan.

There may be a slight rebound in the second half of next year, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the past few years.

Observers believe that the future US dollar trend, China's economic growth and the balance of payments situation will be a number of internal and external factors that affect the RMB exchange rate fluctuation.

Deutsche Bank recently released the world's major currency exchange rate forecast report, expected in 2015, the RMB to the U.S. dollar exchange rate will show a downward trend, the relative depreciation of the renminbi is mainly due to the dollar price will be greatly supported.

Xie Dongming believes that the dollar will further strengthen in the first half of 2015, which will create some pressure on the RMB.

From a fundamental point of view, China's trade surplus is still relatively large, and this year's exports will remain stable overall, and the surplus will not decrease significantly, and will continue to support the RMB exchange rate.

What's the pros and cons of RMB devaluation for outbound tourism and overseas study? Xie pointed out that the depreciation of the renminbi is now directed against the US dollar. However, in terms of Singapore dollar, the total value of the renminbi still appreciates, and the 2015 trend will still be maintained.

So from this perspective, it should not have much impact.

According to the relevant people, although the renminbi has depreciated, it still has an appreciation relative to Real, so it has no bad influence on China's students in Brazil, but reduces the cost of living for foreign students.

Observers pointed out that if the RMB entered a short-term depreciation channel in 2015, overseas Chinese students will face the pressure of RMB depreciation.

But at the same time, this will encourage more international tourists to travel to China.

Yan Xiaozhe, executive director of the Iowa Chinese Association, said that the depreciation of the RMB has an impact on studying in the US. Now the overseas students' families are taking some measures to counteract the effect of RMB devaluation, for example, students' parents buy real estate including houses, land and companies, and stocks in the United States, so as to preserve their assets in the country.