Dong Shaopeng: A Shares Welcome The Most Viable Bull Market For At Least Two Years.

The fundamentals of China's stock market include not only economic data, but also the action of reform. Every bull market comes from the macro fundamentals and major reform measures inside the stock market. Economic data, together with the extent of reform, can be combined and stacked to form the true face of the fundamentals. Macroeconomic data and profit growth of listed companies rely solely on this to decide whether or not a bull market is a big mistake.

More than two months ago, in July 29th, the author suggested that this rally would be "the most powerful bull market" (the Central People's Broadcasting Station "editor's time" in July 29th). The so-called "fixed force" is that we can do more steadfastly, instead of always discussing whether it is a big class rebound or reversing the market.

At present, the fundamentals of the stock market are generally good. First of all, reform has momentum. People's concerns, including market investors, are being speeded up, and the order is very clear. Second, the economy has its own strength. The upper and lower limit of keeping GDP growth by 7.5% and increasing CPI by 3.5% is fine. Premier Li Keqiang recently stressed again that it does not mean that GDP must reach 7.5%, and that it will be done at 7.5% or so. Third is the market itself. From the market itself, it is the policy, performance and concept of the three to reach a unified combination.

The current economic data, despite the worries of slowing down or slowing growth, are, in fact, clear and reliable in terms of the upper and lower limits of the macro-economy. and Listed company Performance, though not as impressive as the previous two years, is still growing. The newly released three quarterly report still accounts for a large proportion of the company's performance.

It is less than three months away from the end of the year. We have already seen more efforts to increase investment in order to complete the necessary economic growth indicators. The State Council recently asked for more investment in water conservancy, environmental protection and information networks, and further decentralization of project approval authority for local governments. The entry of private capital is more open, and the reform of mixed ownership is progressively advancing. These initiatives are revitalizing and activating all kinds of main funds in the market. Shanghai and Hong Kong, which is about to start, will introduce new funds to the stock market. Of course, IPO has been moving rhythmically and has attracted a lot of money.

For more than two months, the market has accumulated some gains, and there is a need for adjustment. However, there will be no big adjustment in October, and the adjustment may be relatively large in the middle of next year. It will continue to rise or stabilize at a certain level. Since the bull market is now called the most powerful bull market, it should be a basic period of time for two years or so.

Recently, including the real estate market, there are some measures that everyone seems to be saving the market. This is actually adjusting the supply and demand from the capital side, which is a very positive policy orientation. If there is a big crisis in the real estate investment and recovery chain, it will not only cause a great shock to the real estate industry itself, but also be very unfavorable to the real economy and even the financial system. Therefore, the purpose of the policy is to stabilize the balance between supply and demand of real estate. After all, rigid demand still exists, but we can not let it rise too fast, and let no abnormal bubble emerge.

Blocking the evil road and opening the right road is the right way. market structure And the only choice for economic operation to return to the true face. Too hot financial products market must return to normal. Now the return on financial products has been reduced, which leads to a more open and transparent stock market circulation. This is also a set of measures to restore the market and financial system to a more healthy and normal state.

In terms of investment direction, there are signs of full flowering now. But I believe that stock selection is like choosing horses. Policies, achievements and concepts should be Trinity. The policy is like the environment of horses raising, feed for horses, and the right way. The performance is equivalent to the speed of horse race and whether it is strong. If the company's performance growth is not so good and the P / E ratio is too high, adjustment is inevitable. The concept is also very important, like the color of a horse's hair or horse's mane, but after all, the concept is attached to fur. We can't overdo it. Fry concept 。

In order to be a Trinity, it is essential for a horse to run fast and not to be strong. The policy must serve the training and training of horses, and better release its vitality. The concept is just like horse mane, which is a beautiful representation of nature and from inside to outside, instead of sticking to a concept.

The author believes that the traditional blue chips, such as energy and finance, should be a major focus. Then the emerging industry sector related to the Internet. Another piece is the major equipment sector, and ships, aircraft and high-speed rail deserve special attention.