US Dollar Uplink Speeds Up Exchange Rate Change Design

This week, the US dollar index of the foreign exchange market rose from 83 points last week to 84 points, reaching the highest level of 84.519 points in 14 months and 84.753 points in last year's high level.

The upward trend of the US dollar continued to strengthen, and the US dollar index rose for the ninth consecutive week.

The US dollar remained slightly stable against the euro exchange rate of 1.29 US dollars, but it reached a high level of US $1.2858.

The US dollar reached the 1.61-1.62 US dollar level against the pound, and the pound's biggest depreciation in 13 months, the lowest in sterling was 1.6060 dollars.

The US dollar also rose sharply to US $0.90 against the Australian dollar, with a weekly exchange rate of US $0.9287-0.9099. The Australian dollar fell more than usual, reaching its lowest level in 5 months.

The US dollar to yen exchange rate further increased to 106-107 yen, and the Japanese yen depreciation further expanded to 107.35 yen, the lowest yen in 6 years.

The US dollar was slightly stable against the New Zealand dollar at $0.82, rising to $0.81 over the weekend.

The US dollar remained stable at 0.93 Swiss francs against the Swiss Franc exchange rate.

The US dollar to the Canadian dollar exchange rate was 1.09 Canadian dollar stability, the weekend increased to 1.10 Canadian dollars, the 5 month high point.

1, the US economy and policies are highlighted by opportunities.

The support of US economic data this week gives rise to opportunities for exchange rate adjustment.

In particular, the optimistic economic data show that the fundamentals of exchange rate are strong, including employment rate, productivity and inflation rate, which seem to be conducive to stronger exchange rate and generate strong market expectations for the US dollar.

This change in the economic environment is very conducive to the anticipated reversal of monetary policy, that is, the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate increase, thereby further stimulating the rise of the US dollar exchange rate.

The clarity of the Fed's attitude and the enhancement of market expectations have been promoting and stimulating.

In particular, as the debt sensitive period of September, data released by the US Treasury showed that the budget deficit of the country in August this year was 129 billion US dollars, slightly lower than the previous estimate of US $130 billion, compared with the deficit of US $148 billion in August 2013, which was reduced by about 13%.

The data also showed that in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2013-14, the total fiscal deficit of the United States was $589 billion, which was lower than the 755 billion US dollars in the same period in the 2012-13 fiscal year, which is also the minimum fiscal deficit since the 2007-08 financial year, that is, the large-scale financial crisis.

The improvement of the US economy is reflected in all levels of economic and financial affairs, giving us full justification and justification for the upward adjustment of the US dollar.

The delay of US debt problem speculation has strong design and strategic factors.

2, the increase of negative factors in the euro area is not conducive to higher exchange rate.

The fragile economic recovery in the euro zone has stagnated in the second quarter, which is very different from the strong growth in the US economy.

Ruitali has fallen into recession for the third time since 2008, the same as many other countries that are still struggling to recover from the debt crisis.

For this reason, EU finance ministers and ECB President Delagi will focus more on the latest initiatives of the European Central Bank to help the economy and avoid deflation, which will result in greater negative pressure on the euro, and the euro's depreciation will follow the trend and meet the needs of technology.

In addition, Germany's economy grew strongly in the second quarter, supported by industrial output and construction industry, but economic growth may slow down later.

The Bundesbank believes there is more and more signs that economic growth is slowing down.

In terms of money supply and credit growth, the money supply data do not indicate that inflation pressures in the euro area have increased. Negative news may impact credit supply and the economies of the peripheral member economies of the euro area. This situation is closely related to the future economic and credit volume, resulting in an increase in downside risks facing price stability. The depreciation of the euro is a direct response to the natural phenomenon.

3, basket currency combination effectively promotes the US dollar index adjustment intention.

The sensitivity of September is related to the US fiscal year. The intention of US dollar strategy and design is to alleviate the pressure of devaluation, and continue to promote the unsustainable devaluation.

Because the actual dollar exchange rate is in a very active state and advantage.

On the one hand is the dominant position and monopoly power.

The strength of US dollar status and role is not a price factor, but a system and a market factor. The increase in US dollar supply is aimed at expanding and monopolization of all global markets, and the market opportunity and environment for us dollar appreciation are the key.

On the other hand

The phenomenon of autonomy is very prominent.

At a loss

There is a good platform and space for the monetary elements of the US dollar combination. The Swiss dollar, the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and so on show the anxiety of the appreciation of the currency. The opportunity to appreciate the dollar and depreciate the currency is very ingenious, so as to win the market's catering and cooperation.

However, the misunderstanding of the market lies in the reversal of the strong dollar, which is not only bad for the future judgment, but also suitable for the US dollar strategy.

Estimate

Or a short duration of expansion, but as soon as it will continue to depreciate, the change of US dollar index will directly affect the adjustment of the main currency exchange rate. The direction combination of euro, sterling and Australian dollar will continue. The neutral currency will be less circumvention, or remain basically stable, highlighting Yu Ruilang, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar. The Japanese yen will depreciate or have new performance, and its appreciation will be limited.

There are many uncertain factors in the foreign exchange market, and the technology of policy strategy is the main factor. The cyclical factor is the key.